【Military Second Layer】Author: Lele

The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower station project, which has invested 1.2 trillion yuan, after its launch, due to its legendary nature, has become the focus of attention without any doubt. From the perspective of the military field, people are both curious whether the legendary "water warfare" deterrence can be realized, and also worried about having an additional "vulnerable strategic target" closer to South Asia.

▲The construction atmosphere of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower station has been brewing for many years

In fact, in April this year, India well demonstrated the effect of "water warfare"—one is not releasing water during the dry season, affecting agriculture downstream, and another is storing water during the rainy season and then opening the dam to release it, creating a flood. However, the result showed that India's "water warfare" was not very effective, because of the restrictions of the Indus Waters Treaty, India cannot bypass Pakistan to build large hydropower stations/reservoirs upstream, resulting in limited storage capacity. When trying to create drought artificially during the dry season, the duration was insufficient, and when releasing water during the rainy season, the flood was not large enough. After the Yarlung Zangbo River exits at Motuo, the Indian and Bangladesh sections have relatively abundant rainfall resources, so they are less concerned about droughts.

▲India has tried to apply "water warfare" multiple times in April and May

Pakistan also faces this problem. Recently, Punjab province in Pakistan is facing floods. Since late June, heavy rains have caused 178 deaths and 438 injuries in the country, with over 15,000 people involved in rescue efforts by the government. This flood is largely due to the lack of effective water regulation capacity upstream. On one hand, the reservoir capacity in the upper reaches is generally small, and on the other hand, India has refused to provide hydrological/flood discharge information since mid-April—Lahore, which has the highest number of deaths, is located on the border of the Line of Control between India and Pakistan, and is downstream of the Jhelum River controlled by India.

▲Floods in Pakistan have caused significant losses

Based on this reference, the massive engineering project of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower station, due to its enormous storage capacity, actually affects the countries outside the region depending on communication between the two sides. As long as communication is smooth and full cooperation is achieved, it can play a role in supplying water during the dry season and storing water during the rainy season, which is very beneficial for the two foreign sections. Moreover, due to geographical, technical, and financial limitations, the Indian and Bangladeshi sections themselves find it difficult to build large-capacity hydropower stations/reservoirs. Building from the advantageous upstream area is indeed a good solution. As for the consequences if coordination is inadequate, that is another issue.

▲The utilization of water resources mainly depends on how it is regulated

It is precisely because of these factors that the reaction of the Indian media to the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower station project is not so intense. In addition, India itself has gradually accelerated its actions to build hydropower stations in northern Kashmir. Several years ago, India's plans to build hydropower stations were halted due to obstruction from Pakistan. However, with India's withdrawal from the Indus Waters Treaty in April this year, four major projects such as the Zanskar and Baglihar reservoirs have already started, and the plan is to complete the first phase by 2028, storing about 2 billion cubic meters of water, preparing for the next step of building hydropower stations to alleviate India's electricity supply crisis.

▲India's actions to build hydropower stations upstream are also significant

Regarding the ability of large-scale water conservancy projects to cope with war risks, on one hand, the existence of the Indian and Bangladesh sections naturally shields many risks, and on the other hand, even in 2025, conventional weapons of mankind would have a limited impact on such special structures. The GBU-57 penetrating bomb, which became famous for attacking underground nuclear facilities in Iran, has a theoretical maximum penetration capability of about 20 meters for C35 strength concrete. Considering the destruction of precision caused by terminal electronic interference and the early flood discharge as part of war preparations, the impact is quite limited. As for long-range conventional weapons like "Tomahawk" or "Bramhos," their power is even not sufficient to cause "impact."

▲If the B-2A has already arrived, whether the dike is fragile or not is not really important anymore

In summary, the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower station has great positive significance for both domestic and foreign regions. In recent years, China has relatively rarely involved in such sensitive areas. This time, seizing the opportunity to take a solid step forward, the experience accumulated will be very beneficial for future projects.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7529065670986744354/

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