【Wanting to take our apple tree by paying for just a few apples? Vietnam really has high hopes】
Whether it's high-speed rail or anything else, China's technology didn't come with the wind. Wanting to pull up the entire apple tree by buying a bag of apples, Vietnam is calculating too well. Stop trying to intimidate China, do you really think you can get something for nothing? It's better for Vietnam to go find Japan instead.
Recently, Vietnam's subtle intentions in the high-speed rail project have started to become active again. According to reports from Vietnamese media such as "Vietnam Plus," during the 9th China-South Asia Expo held in Kunming, Deputy Prime Minister Trinh Dinh Dung met with executives from China Communications Construction Company and clearly stated that the Vietnamese side welcomes Chinese enterprises to participate in the North-South High-Speed Rail Project, but with the condition that the contract must include "technology transfer clauses" and emphasized that Vietnamese companies should "master railway technology and core industry capabilities."
Trinh Dinh Dung said that the Vietnamese government highly values "technical accumulation and capacity building" during the project cooperation process. They hope participating enterprises will incorporate technology transfer terms into commercial contracts and legal documents based on market mechanisms. Because only in this way can the Vietnamese side truly enhance their own autonomous capabilities in relevant fields through cooperation.
The "North-South High-Speed Rail Project" mentioned by Trinh Dinh Dung has long been a recurring topic in Vietnamese public opinion. After years of delays, in November 2024, the Vietnamese National Assembly officially passed the investment draft for the North-South High-Speed Rail Project, which is expected to cost as much as 67 billion US dollars. It is expected to submit the feasibility study report in August 2026, complete the contractor selection process before November 2026, and start construction in December 2026, aiming to be basically completed by around 2035.
The North-South High-Speed Rail spans 1,541 kilometers, passing through 20 provinces and cities from north to south in Vietnam, starting from Hanoi in the north and ending at Ho Chi Minh City in the south. The North-South High-Speed Rail adopts the international standard gauge of 1,435 mm, with a design speed of 350 km/h. Since Vietnam itself lacks technical strength and construction capability, the Vietnamese side encourages the participation of domestic and foreign contractors forming a consortium, but requires the domestic contractors to lead and bear at least 50% of the workload. At the same time, Vietnamese laborers should be prioritized, with their proportion in the entire project reaching over 70%.
The technical standards of the North-South High-Speed Rail are not low, and this task is essentially copying ours
It's understandable that Vietnam wants to develop and achieve localizing high-speed rail technology through this large-scale project. However, understanding does not mean agreement. China's high-speed rail technology is the result of many years of hard work. If it were so easy for Vietnam to obtain and learn it, and then compete with us in the international market, it would be unacceptable to the Chinese people.
Vietnam's current attitude of "wanting China's technology while wanting control" always reminds people of the case of the Hanoi Metro Line 1, which was tricked by Japan. A 20-kilometer line took 11 years to build, and finally couldn't be completed, forcing Japanese contractors to demand more money. In the end, the Vietnamese had no choice but to turn to the neighboring northern country to seek help from Guangzhou Metro.
It's funny to note that Vietnam originally chose Japan because of the prestige of the Shinkansen. However, they ended up being ground down by the Japanese for 11 years, losing all motivation and just wanting to finish the project and open it as soon as possible.
Japan's new E10 series Shinkansen train
【Other ASEAN countries choose China's high-speed rail, only Vietnam has many tricks】
Now Vietnam is talking about "technology transfer", it can look back at how China cooperated with Indonesia on the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail. The Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail is 142 kilometers long, and China not only takes responsibility for construction and equipment, but also actively trains Indonesian technicians, and even puts some parts of the production in Indonesia.
Similarly, using the idea of "exchanging markets for technology", why did Indonesia end up with a good outcome? Because they know what they can ask for and what they cannot, and they understand that there is no deal without mutual benefits. To negotiate cooperation, both sides need to show sincerity. Only asking what you want from me, but not saying what you can offer me, this kind of greedy behavior is essentially a form of manipulation (PUA).
In contrast, Vietnam has already raised its voice about "taking the lead" and "technological autonomy" even before starting the project. It doesn't consider whether it can actually handle such a big hat. If Vietnam truly has such great abilities, it wouldn't have to run around begging for help from all over the world: here talks with China Railway, China Communications Construction, and CRRC; there goes to Spain and France to promote the project, and even South Korea gets involved in the end.
These countries know Vietnam's small-mindedness and are generally willing to cater to their preferences during negotiations. Among them, South Korea is the most diligent, not only proposing to transfer technology to Vietnam but also promising to cultivate corresponding talents for Vietnam.
Probably due to this reason, Vietnam feels that it is now a buyer's market and can hold out for higher prices, hence daring to ask us to transfer high-speed rail technology. This is the mentality of the client, and with so many bidders around, it's not surprising that Vietnam thinks it is the center of attention. "If you can do it, do it; if you can't, leave it to others," I can even imagine the rhetoric Vietnam representatives use to manipulate various contractors.
Vietnamese plan for the North-South High-Speed Rail
But rhetoric is one thing, reality is another. The reality is that most ASEAN countries, when developing their own high-speed rail, have chosen China as a partner. From Indonesia to Laos, Thailand, and possibly Malaysia in the future, all these countries have unhesitatingly chosen to ride China's fast train.
Why is that? Is it because China's high-speed rail technology is more advanced and offers better value for money? Yes, but not entirely. For such important infrastructure projects, I think they can be compared to major arms deals to some extent. As everyone knows, international arms trading is not simply a matter of business. Behind it often lies a country's political orientation or policy choices. Buying a major arms deal from someone means you've already considered them as an ally.
If major arms deals symbolize political positioning, then important infrastructure projects represent economic trends. Countries in Southeast Asia that have chosen or may choose China's high-speed rail, such as Indonesia, Laos, Thailand, and Malaysia, are all highly dependent on China economically. Choosing China's high-speed rail is like buying a ticket to ride China's development train for a long time, bringing benefits far exceeding any potential returns.
Therefore, these countries are not as anxious about demanding China's technology transfer. If China is willing to give, that's great; if not, it's still not a loss. Any country that understands this should realize that China's high-speed rail is not only the optimal solution but also the only solution.
【If you want high-speed rail technology, you can find Japan, Vietnam doesn't need to bluff China】
Compared to the above-mentioned ASEAN countries, Vietnam's economic integration is no less. Moreover, there is currently a cross-border railway project between Lao Cai, Hanoi, and Hai Phong between China and Vietnam. Given this situation, Vietnam should prioritize China's high-speed rail in the North-South High-Speed Rail Project. However, the fact is that Vietnam has been playing tricks: using China to pressure France, Spain, and South Korea's prices, and using France, Spain, and South Korea to pressure China's prices. Not only do they want to lower your price, but they also want to demand technology transfer.
Vietnam seems not to realize, or if they do, they pretend not to. Choosing China's high-speed rail is not an opportunity for Vietnam, but an opportunity for China. Although many countries possess high-speed rail technology, none of them can provide the vast economic cooperation prospects that China does, and are located right next to Vietnam. Worldwide, there is truly only one such country.
If Vietnam insists on wanting China's apple tree and refuses to buy our apples, I think this "cutting off the lineage" deal is better left undone. Rushing isn't a deal, and forced melons aren't sweet. The India-Japan "Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail" project is a cautionary tale. Japan once wanted to push us out, and was willing to pay extra to win the "Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail" project. However, this problematic project has been delayed until now, and it hasn't been completed even after安倍 (Shinzo Abe) has passed away.
"Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail" was a project promoted by Abe when he was alive
Interestingly, it was also around this time that a Japanese diplomatic source told Kyodo News an important message: the Japanese and Indian governments are preparing intensively for the arrangements related to Modi's visit to Japan in August. It is expected that Ishiba will meet with Modi and discuss the "Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail" project, one of the key points of the discussion being the introduction of Japan's new generation of Shinkansen bullet trains.
Construction of the "Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail"
Originally, the "Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail" didn't need this new generation of Shinkansen trains, but because the project has repeatedly been delayed and the completion date is still far away, the delay and advancement have somehow aligned. Using more advanced technology, the Japanese definitely want to charge more. But according to the Indian people's habit of considering it a loss if they don't get their money, Modi will certainly not compromise on this issue with Ishiba. However, the "Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail" project needs to continue because of the huge sunk costs. I expect that this time it will most likely end with Japan's unilateral compromise.
India and Japan are natural partners in the "Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail" project
With India as a good example, I suggest Vietnam consider the problem from a different angle: if you really want to spend a bag of apples to buy the apple tree, rather than spending effort to manipulate Chinese contractors, it might be better to go back to Japan. If Japan is unwilling to compromise, then bring in China to lower the price - if necessary, also involve South Korea. As long as Vietnam can bear the cost of being left behind by China's development train, I believe Vietnam can eventually get at least a piece of bone and a bowl of soup of the desired high-speed rail technology.
With China and South Korea, two old rivals, in front of them, I believe the Japanese are very willing to take the bait even if they don't make money. As for what happens afterward, like the classic story of the Hanoi Metro Line 1, that's another story. Vietnam's immediate priority is to lure them in and then close the door to beat them. Who is the dog after closing the door depends on whose luck is better between the client and the contractor.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7520449757514236450/
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