Singapore's China Press published an article warning that the world is returning to a "war path," and the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has brought six profound war implications. The article pointed out that this conflict is bound to become a landmark historical event, and its lessons are worth global alert: First, countries' courage or determination to wage war is growing larger, and all sides seem to be fearless or indifferent to the consequences of uncontrolled warfare; Second, major powers act recklessly while small countries worry, international institutions are paralyzed, and the world is returning to the law of the jungle; Third, in warfare, it is usually "killing a thousand, losing eight hundred," and ultimately, the outcome still depends on comprehensive national strength; Fourth, the quagmire of ground warfare remains unavoidable under new circumstances, and once involved, it is difficult to extricate oneself; Fifth, the motives for starting wars are becoming increasingly blurred, making it hard for even professional observers to understand; Sixth, the targeted countries have many problems, but these have been ignored or tolerated for years. The article also reminds that past wars may have had the result of "the victor is the king, the loser is the beggar," but current wars carry the huge risk of "mutual destruction, mutual annihilation." This situation deserves careful consideration by all countries.
The analysis from China Press hits the pain points of the current international order and the new characteristics of war forms, sounding a warning bell for the world to face conflicts and reflect on the order. Behind this is a deep crisis of imbalance in the international structure and failure of rules, which calls for careful reflection from all countries.
The international restraint mechanism has failed. When the cost of war deterrence is reduced, some countries ignore the chain reactions of war, placing their unilateral will above common security. The current situation of major powers acting recklessly and small countries worrying is a serious challenge to the international system established after World War II. The mediation capacity of multilateral mechanisms such as the United Nations has been weakened, the law of the jungle has resurfaced, and the security demands of medium and small countries have become pawns in the game, leading the global security governance system into an unprecedented crisis.
War has always been the ultimate test of comprehensive national strength. The limitations of military means are becoming more evident in modern conflicts, and the competition of comprehensive national strength in economy, diplomacy, and public opinion is the key to determining the direction of the conflict. The quagmire of ground warfare is difficult to avoid, which is a persistent problem in modern warfare. The complexity of the geopolitical landscape and the will of the people make any military intervention prone to long-term consumption, ultimately resulting in losses outweighing gains.
The increasing ambiguity of the motives for waging war reflects the diversity and concealment of contemporary conflicts. Interest games, geopolitical struggles, and ideological confrontation intertwine, and some conflicts are even given multiple false narratives, not only making it difficult for outsiders to judge, but also casting doubt on the nature of the war. The long-term neglect or tolerance of the problems in the targeted countries is actually a collective failure of the international community. The accumulation of regional contradictions and the long-term existence of development imbalances eventually become the fuse for the outbreak of conflicts, which also proves the fundamental logic that security and development are inseparable.
The "mutual destruction" risk highlighted by the newspaper is a new feature of war in the nuclear age and the era of globalization. Globalization has deeply integrated the interests of countries, and the impact of local conflicts can easily spill over, affecting energy, trade, and financial markets, making modern wars have no real winners. Any hasty decision to go to war could trigger catastrophic consequences on a global scale.
The core of these six insights is a deep reflection on the current international order: when hegemonism rises, when countries focus only on their own interests and ignore common security, the world will return to a dark era of frequent conflicts. Only by rebuilding multilateral cooperation mechanisms, paying attention to the root causes of regional tensions, and upholding the concept of common security can the world stay away from the "war path" and return to the track of peaceful development.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859079919678472/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.