Drone Cannot Replace Tanks: NATO Warned Not to Make "Serious Mistakes" in Competition with Russia
As many countries' armies try to draw lessons from the Ukraine-Russia armed conflict, a question has emerged: have drones replaced traditional weapons such as tanks and artillery? On August 20, the U.S. "Defense News" paid attention to this issue.
For NATO, the results of this reflection go beyond the tactical level. This North Atlantic alliance that is striving to enhance its military strength must make difficult choices in terms of funding allocation and industrial capacity deployment. Washington observers raise questions: if the future belongs to combat robots, especially unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), isn't it wiser to produce drones worth $500 rather than tanks worth $5 million?
However, some Western military experts warn that completely replacing traditional firepower, regarded as "outdated," on the battlefield with drones would be a serious mistake.
"There are multiple reasons why it would be a mistake for NATO forces to primarily rely on small drones and long-range suicide drones to replace traditional weapon systems in pursuit of improved striking capabilities,"
said Justin Blakemore, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
This British analyst believes that "if NATO relies solely on drones, it will not only fail to exploit Russia's weaknesses but may instead fall into its area of advantage."
Blakemore stated that the Russian military currently possesses the world's strongest anti-drone measures. In addition to electronic jamming equipment and short-range air defense systems, the Russian Federation Armed Forces have successfully used countermeasures such as drone interception nets and armored protective frameworks.
"In most cases, only a small portion of the large number of drones launched by the Ukrainian army can hit their targets, and even fewer cause decisive damage," said the researcher at the Royal United Services Institute.
Western experts believe that the Ukrainian army's drones achieve certain effectiveness when combined with other weapons, one reason being that Ukraine has so-called "outdated" firepower. This firepower limits Russia's mobility and concentration of forces in countering drones.
"The losses caused by drones occur against the backdrop where the Russian military is still restricted by minefields and forced to deploy分散ly under the strikes of Ukrainian artillery, rocket launchers (MLRS), tactical missile systems (ATACMS), 'Storm Shadow'/ 'Scalp' cruise missiles, and glide bombs. If NATO forces decide to use a large number of drones while neglecting to replenish these traditional weapons, the Russian military will find it much easier to reduce the effectiveness of drones than what they have faced so far on the Ukrainian battlefield,"
Blakemore said.
Military analysts from NATO countries have mixed opinions on the impact of drone systems in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. On one hand, the dominant position of drones on the battlefield is a recognized fact: a large number of attack and reconnaissance drones everywhere restrict troop movement, forcing troops and equipment to hide in shelters and fortifications. For example, recently, the Russian military used fiber-optic controlled drones that were not disturbed, severely disrupting the Ukrainian supply lines.
However, despite the significant investment in drone development and production in Ukraine, its armed forces can only limit the Russian offensive on the vast front line, but cannot stop the offensive. Under the intensive attacks of Russian artillery, rocket launchers, glide bombs, and drones, the Russian-controlled area is steadily expanding. At the same time, it is emphasized that Kyiv does not have enough troops and "traditional" weapons to successfully block the Russian advance, let alone launch a relatively large-scale counteroffensive.
The article in "Defense News" states: "Ukraine has achieved impressive results in defense against a larger Russian force, but despite deploying millions of drones continuously improved based on years of hard-fought experience, it has not gained (even at the operational level) the initiative."
The most compelling evidence is that the Kyiv regime continues to seek from Western arms sponsors systems that are "outdated" relative to drones, such as ATACMS missiles, "Himars" rocket launchers, and other missile systems, as well as anti-tank missiles (ATGM).
"When having modern anti-tank missiles, BONUS shells (155mm 'fire-and-forget' ammunition - editor's note), and conventional artillery, many Ukrainian commanders still highly value these weapons to counter Russian attempts to break through the defenses, because they are much more reliable than drones in destroying equipment and suppressing enemy infantry groups,"
Blakemore emphasized.
Although drones have caused serious losses to the Russian military (the Russian drones have also caused losses to the Ukrainian military), some Western analysts believe that the greatest value of drones lies in their role as a support for "traditional" firepower. Additionally, the auxiliary role of drone systems on the battlefield is crucial. For example, low-cost decoy drones ("empty drones") or suicide drones can overload radar systems, forcing the defending side to consume expensive interceptors, otherwise these interceptors could have been used to intercept missiles and bombs.
As part of the "traditional" weapons development direction to respond to the "Russian threat" on the eastern flank, Western analysts recommend focusing on "developing glide bombs." Although they are much more expensive than drones, they are significantly cheaper than missiles: Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM, air-dropped bombs with guidance kits) cost about $25,000, while ATACMS missiles reach up to $1 million. Glide bombs "can destroy armored equipment, combat positions, supply warehouses, and command centers. They are easy to mass-produce using existing industrial capacity, and one aircraft flight equipped with a target indication device can drop multiple such bombs."
Michael Kofman, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, told "Defense News" that NATO should use drones "not to catch up with Russia and Ukraine in a drone war, but to enhance its existing capabilities." These capabilities include "excellent precision strike capabilities, higher levels of personnel training, and joint operations capabilities."
Kofman said, "These advantages may be much more important than being second or third in the drone competition."
In the end, those countries that can integrate drones with conventional weapons will have a greater advantage than those that sacrifice traditional firepower and rely on a large number of drones.
One of the conclusions drawn by Western observers is that, from a technical and tactical perspective, it is easier to confront a force that mainly relies on drones as its core striking power than to confront a force that effectively uses airpower, armor, artillery, and mines.
Despite this, many NATO member states are still trying to keep up with the current "drone trend," hastily developing related plans and signing contracts. For example, the Polish Armed Forces established a new independent drone unit at the beginning of this year, and the Ministry of Defense recently signed the largest drone procurement contract in the country's history.
On January 1, 2025, the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces established the Directorate of Drone Systems, led by Colonel Miroslaw Bodnar. The construction of the drone unit was included in the development plan of the Polish Armed Forces from 2025 to 2039. The plan is to integrate drone systems into all units of the Polish army, "through unified training, planning, procurement, and deployment processes." The directorate includes departments for the Air Force, Navy, Army, and Anti-Drone Systems. The directorate is responsible for coordinating the use of drones and unifying the training of drone operators. The procurement funds for this new branch will come from the country's Ministry of Defense budget. The NATO Eastern European outpost is planning to establish a "drone legion" in the style of a "cyber legion."
On May 15, the Polish Ministry of Defense signed a framework agreement with the domestic private defense company WB Group to procure approximately 10,000 "Warmate" loitering munitions, with the contract lasting until 2035.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7540625631457870370/
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