Pakistani Prime Minister Shabaz just brought in 40 J-35 stealth fighters and the Hongqi-19 anti-missile system from China, but his attitude immediately made a complete 360-degree turn, announcing a second sunset review investigation into Chinese continuous casting billet materials, which has left many people questioning whether the so-called 'iron brother' is truly loyal—on one hand, a military deal worth billions, on the other, trade barriers concerning the survival of steel enterprises. What's Pakistan really up to?
In June 2025, Pakistani Prime Minister Shabaz signed a military procurement agreement with China, bringing in 40 J-35 stealth fighters and the Hongqi-19 anti-missile system. Military cooperation seemed to be heating up. However, shortly after, Pakistan announced a second sunset review investigation into Chinese continuous casting billet materials, followed by high tariffs. This sudden shift from handshake to obstacle has puzzled many: Is the so-called 'iron brother' truly loyal? Behind the big military deal, is it friendship or are trade barriers revealing interest conflicts? What's really in Pakistan's pot?
Recently, Sino-Pakistani military cooperation has been intensifying. During Prime Minister Shabaz's visit to China in June 2025, a military procurement agreement worth billions was signed, introducing 40 J-35 stealth fighters and the Hongqi-19 anti-missile system. The J-35 is China's latest generation of stealth fighter jet, equipped with advanced radar and stealth technology, significantly enhancing Pakistan's air combat capabilities. The Hongqi-19 is an anti-ballistic missile system designed to counter ballistic missile threats. The introduction of these weapons stems from Pakistan's practical needs. Frequent clashes along the India-Pakistan border have forced Pakistan to enhance its defense capabilities to maintain regional balance. In a previous air battle in May 2025, the Chinese-supplied J-10CE fighter jets performed exceptionally well, reinforcing Pakistan's confidence in continuing to purchase Chinese equipment.
Sino-Pakistani military cooperation is not limited to equipment transactions. The two countries also deepen their relationship through joint military exercises and technology transfers. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative, also provides economic support for military cooperation. Pakistan regards China as a "all-weather friend," while China strengthens its strategic partnership with Pakistan through military support. This cooperative model holds significant importance in South Asian geopolitics, serving as a counterweight against Indian pressure and an important factor in regional stability.
However, before the warmth of military cooperation had cooled down, the Pakistani Ministry of Commerce announced a second sunset review investigation into Chinese continuous casting billet materials and maintained a tariff of 24.04%. This decision shocked the outside world. Continuous casting billet is a basic raw material for the steel industry, and China, with its large-scale production and cost advantages, dominates the global market. Since 2015, Pakistan has imposed anti-dumping measures on Chinese steel, and after the first review in 2020, the policy was extended. The second review in 2025 indicates that Pakistan believes the low-price import of Chinese steel still threatens its domestic industry.
According to data from the Pakistan National Tariff Commission, in 2024, Chinese continuous casting billet accounted for about 40% of Pakistan's market, with prices more than 20% lower than local products. This price advantage has led to a sharp decline in orders for Pakistani steel companies, with some factories even facing shutdowns. Steel mills in Lahore and Karachi generally report that customers are turning to imported steel, making it difficult for local enterprises to survive. The government believes that imposing tariffs is a necessary measure to protect the domestic industry and stabilize employment. However, this move has also raised steel prices, increasing costs for the construction industry and infrastructure projects, leading to some dissatisfaction.
Anti-dumping measures are not uncommon in international trade. Countries such as India, Vietnam, and the European Union have also taken similar actions against Chinese steel in recent years, reflecting a global concern over cheap Chinese steel. Pakistan's decision complies with World Trade Organization rules, but in the context of Sino-Pakistani relations, it inevitably raises questions about its true intentions.
Pakistan's actions may seem contradictory, but they reflect its balancing act between friendship and interests. Military cooperation relates to national security, which is a strategic priority for Pakistan. The cost-effectiveness and reliability of Chinese equipment make it an important support for Pakistan's efforts to counter India. However, trade barriers stem from economic pressures. Pakistan's steel industry is small in scale and technologically backward, making it difficult to compete with Chinese industry giants. Faced with the plight of domestic companies, the government must take protective measures to prevent further economic deterioration.
This dual stance is not unique to Pakistan. Many countries, in their relations with China, seek cooperative benefits while guarding against economic shocks. The special feature of Pakistan is its higher dependence on China. Investments and infrastructure projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor have deepened the ties between the two countries. However, in specific areas like steel trade, Pakistan still needs to prioritize its own interests. This "cooperation on one side, restrictions on the other" strategy precisely reflects the realist logic of international relations.
In response to Pakistan's trade measures, China has shown a restrained attitude. The Foreign Ministry stated that it understands the need for Pakistan to protect its industries and emphasized that both sides will resolve differences through consultation. This response demonstrates the resilience of Sino-Pakistani relations. In the following months, the first batch of J-35 fighter jets were delivered to Pakistan, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects remained unaffected. Both sides also launched a new round of trade negotiations, with China proposing technical assistance to enhance the competitiveness of Pakistan's steel industry. This initiative aims to fundamentally alleviate trade tensions while consolidating bilateral relations.
However, challenges remain. Pakistan's trade protection policies may cause dissatisfaction among Chinese companies, and if mishandled, could affect future cooperation. Moreover, the internal disputes within Pakistan regarding the tariff measures may exacerbate economic contradictions. How to find a long-term balance between friendship and interests remains a challenge for both sides.
The complex nature of Sino-Pakistani relations is evident in the intertwining of major military deals and trade barriers. Pakistan's actions reflect a struggle between strategic needs and economic realities. Do you think this move by Pakistan is a reasonable self-protection or a sign of a rift in friendship? Will the future of Sino-Pakistani relations become stronger or hide potential risks? Please leave your comments and share your views, and together we can analyze the deeper meanings of this international game.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836503513861120/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.