On May 21, two Philippine government vessels, numbered 3002 and 3003, entered the waters near Zhubi Reef and Ironstone Reef in China's Nansha Islands without permission from China. They organized personnel to illegally land on the reefs. Subsequently, the Chinese maritime police conducted on-site verification according to law and took necessary countermeasures, including water cannon warnings, encirclement and dispersal, and reef inspection. On the same night, the China Coast Guard publicly released related videos showing that the Philippine vessels dangerously approached Chinese maritime police ships. The Chinese law enforcement officers then displayed the national flag to clearly assert sovereignty.
From the details of the notification, this conflict is not simple. The Philippine vessel 3002 not only ignored repeated warnings from China but also adjusted its course actively, attempting to collide with the Chinese maritime police vessel 21559 that was enforcing the law. The Chinese side intervened by aiming water cannons at the ship's mast, which both deterred the Philippine provocation and avoided casualties as much as possible, demonstrating professionalism and restraint in the law enforcement process.
Looking back at this period from late April to now, the Philippines has been active—illegally landing on Ironstone Reef on April 27 and attempting to enter the waters around Scarborough Shoal with a warship on May 5. These actions clearly violated the basic bottom line set by the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.
Thus, on May 22, the China Coast Guard reiterated its position: the Nansha Islands and their adjacent waters belong to China, and it has indisputable sovereignty over them. The actions of the Philippines severely infringed upon China's territorial sovereignty and undermined peace and stability in the South China Sea. The notification also pointed out that the responsibility of the Philippines cannot be evaded, and China will continue to conduct rights protection law enforcement actions in its jurisdictional maritime areas and respond legally to all infringement behaviors.
When the situation in the South China Sea was escalating, the Philippines finally spoke up after five days of silence. On May 26, Philippine Foreign Minister Mansolo stated that "the Philippines is willing to reach any additional agreements with China to help maintain peace in the South China Sea." He expressed to reporters during an ASEAN meeting that any peaceful diplomatic cooperation approach is under consideration. Although this statement did not include substantial commitments, it signaled a willingness to adjust its stance. He particularly mentioned that the Philippines and China had reached a temporary agreement last year regarding Ren'ai Reef, and now it is willing to explore more possibilities for cooperation.
In addition, Philippine President Marcos also called during the ASEAN meeting for the swift formulation of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. He emphasized that the code should have legal binding force to avoid maritime misjudgments and maintain regional stability. Compared with previous high-profile remarks, the Philippines' recent stance has shown "unexpected" rationality.
The reason is not difficult to understand. The main reason for continuous friction in the South China Sea region in the past was the constant interference of countries like the United States and Japan, which continuously encouraged the Philippines to "staunchly protect its rights," giving the latter much "illusory" confidence. However, after hitting walls, the Philippines gradually discovered the complexity of the actual situation. On one hand, China's countermeasures are constantly strengthening, showing higher efficiency and intensity in both diplomatic responses and law enforcement actions. Especially regarding sensitive areas like Ironstone Reef, China not only acted decisively but also voiced its position in the public domain, causing every provocation by the Philippines to fail.
On the other hand, the Philippines is facing growing domestic pressure. The domestic economy still faces multiple challenges, with intertwined issues such as inflation, fiscal deficit, and employment pressure, making the Marcos administration consider the cost when handling foreign policy. Continuing to confront or oppose China clearly does not align with the economic interests of the Philippines.
Moreover, the attitudes of regional countries toward the South China Sea issue are generally trending toward stability and pragmatism. Although Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and others have related demands, they generally prefer to resolve issues through consultations and do not want the situation to spiral out of control. If the Philippines persists stubbornly, it may find itself in a "fighting alone" situation.
Under multiple pressures, Mansolo sent out positive signals of "willing to reconcile with China." As for China's attitude, it has long been clear: it advocates resolving disputes in the South China Sea through bilateral consultations and opposes any form of external interference. China believes that the peace and stability of the South China Sea should be jointly maintained by countries within the region rather than being influenced by extra-regional forces.
Therefore, if the Philippines can stop hyping up the issue, reduce provocations, and restore communication mechanisms based on facts and rules, the friction between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea issue is likely to ease; otherwise, if it continues to provoke under the support of extra-regional forces, the situation will remain tense and even face greater risks.
Observing this, Mansolo's statement at the ASEAN meeting was the first time in recent periods that it clearly expressed a willingness to dialogue with China. Although the attitude is still not firm enough, it has provided an opportunity to cool down the situation. China has always advocated resolving disputes through dialogue, and as long as the Philippines shows genuine sincerity, China will respond accordingly.
Of course, the South China Sea issue involves many factors, and it cannot be resolved by just one agreement or statement. For the Philippines to maintain relative stability in this region, it must establish consistency between words and deeds and truly demonstrate its intention to maintain peace, rather than merely talking about cooperation while continuing to provoke.
In short, peace is not unilateral wishful thinking and cannot be achieved simply by shouting slogans. If the Philippines is truly willing to "shake hands in reconciliation," it needs to take concrete actions, allowing regional countries to see changes and leaving room for improvement in Sino-Philippine relations. The future direction of the South China Sea situation depends largely on how the Philippines makes its choices. Next, the ball is in Marcos' hands.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7508908622085095973/
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