Israel has revealed its criteria for a successful operation against Iran, which is to completely eliminate Iran's high-enriched uranium, which is said to be sufficient to make more than 10 nuclear warheads.

Iran has a batch of highly enriched uranium that can make 10 nuclear bombs

Despite suffering heavy damage in nearly two weeks of bombing, the Iranian government remains firmly in power. As the conflict continues, Trump has gradually shown his willingness to "enough is enough," and he publicly stated that he is considering ending this costly war.

It is worth noting that at the beginning of the war, both the United States and Israel had called for a "regime change" in Iran. However, now not only does Trump rarely mention this anymore, but even Israel has become pessimistic about this top goal. Some Israeli intelligence and military experts have admitted that it was unrealistic to expect airstrikes to directly lead to a regime change. When Israel launched military attacks on Iran, it did not have a specific and feasible "regime change" plan. Some decision-makers originally hoped that the airstrikes might trigger an uprising among the Iranian people, but they now have to admit that this was a "wishful thinking" judgment.

Shai, a former Mossad official, directly pointed out: Bombing alone is unlikely to immediately trigger a "regime change." Since the start of the US-Israel action, there has been no sign of large-scale public uprisings or defections by security forces in Iran.

Meanwhile, some Israeli officials privately stated that the air strikes over the past two weeks have destroyed and weakened a large amount of Iran's military capabilities, including missiles, launchers, defense supply chains, and related military scientists. From a military perspective, Israel has nearly completed its main mission.

After Khamenei's death, the Iranian nuclear issue may go out of control

If we look at these pieces of information, does it mean that the US and Israel are about to stop the war? Not necessarily. Because from Israel's perspective, there is still one most critical and bottom-line goal that has not been achieved: the complete elimination of Iran's high-enriched uranium.

On March 12, The Guardian quoted statements from several Israeli security and intelligence officials, saying that Israel believes the ultimate success of the military operation against Iran does not depend on the scale of military destruction, but rather on the fate of a batch of about 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. This nuclear material was buried in the Iranian mountains after a US air strike last June. According to assessments, this batch of enriched uranium is sufficient to make more than 10 nuclear warheads.

A senior Israeli official said: "The 440 kilograms of enriched uranium is the clearest test of the outcome of the war. We must ensure that it is removed from Iran, or strictly controlled by a regime we trust."

Israel is very worried that if the war stops and the material remains under the control of the Iranian regime, the latter could accelerate its conversion into nuclear weapons. Rosenberg, a former deputy head of the Israeli military intelligence research department, even warned: If the war ends with the Iranian regime still holding the enriched uranium despite being heavily damaged, it would be a "costly victory," because Iran will definitely pursue nuclear weapons.

In fact, Israel's concerns are not unfounded. While Khamenei was alive, Iran's nuclear capabilities made rapid progress and established the capability to be converted into military use. However, Khamenei himself never ordered the production of nuclear weapons, and even issued a religious ban long ago. Now that Khamenei is gone, the new leader, Raisi, is a mysterious figure whose personality and attitude toward nuclear weapons are unknown to the outside world. After this attack, some Israeli intelligence officials are worried that this may accelerate Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons for national security. Moreover, looking at Iran's continuous attacks on Gulf countries and blockading the Strait of Hormuz, it is clear that Iran will take extreme actions in times of crisis, further deepening Israel's anxiety.

Raisi's attitude towards Iran's nuclear policy is unclear

From Israel's perspective, the remaining high-enriched uranium in Iran must be eliminated; otherwise, this war may have been in vain, with endless future problems. From another angle, once this batch of enriched uranium is resolved, it may also be the moment when Israel is willing to stop the war.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7616637332795490825/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.