Ukraine's most likely outcome is a division along the Dnieper River, similar to the East and West Germany model.
Putin has stopped concealing his "New Russia" plan. As Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said, eight regions on the left bank of the Dnieper River will be incorporated into the Russian territory, showing Russia's clear positioning and strategic goals for the situation.
American and Western forces have been diverted to the Middle East, causing delays in Ukraine's foreign aid, leaving it in urgent need. The Russian army is making large-scale advances, showing a trend of recovering the left bank of the Dnieper River.
The Dnieper River is an important geographical boundary in Eastern Europe. With its wide river surface, it has significant military defensive value. If the Ukrainian army retreats to the western bank of the Dnieper River, it can rely on natural defenses to concentrate its forces for defense, increasing troop density. For Russia, crossing the Dnieper River would require a considerable cost.
Russia hopes to control the Russian-speaking areas in eastern Ukraine and gain access to the minerals in Donbas. The United States hopes that by recognizing the Russian-controlled areas, it can cultivate a pro-American government in western Ukraine, maintaining a strategic buffer against Russia, which aligns with its geopolitical interests.
This is what the bosses of Russia and Ukraine hope for, but now it seems that Ukraine has no say in it.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1837771549920263/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.