Chile is the world's largest copper producer (Al Jazeera)
US President Trump recently announced that starting in August 2024, a 50% tariff will be imposed on copper imports, which has caused a stir in the global market. Bloomberg pointed out that this tariff rate is far higher than most analysts expected, raising concerns about global supply chains and the prospects of US manufacturing.
Since Trump first proposed the tax in January of this year, US copper prices have continued to rise. Commodity traders have seized the opportunity to transport large quantities of copper from lower-priced markets to the United States to profit from the price difference.
The price of copper futures on the New York Futures Exchange has reached an all-time high, with the difference between the price on the London Metal Exchange reaching as much as 28%. Traders are rushing to ship copper into US ports, completing deliveries before the tariff takes effect.
Source: US Geological Survey 2024 data
US Copper Production and Import Situation:
In 2024, the United States produced 1.1 million tons of copper, slightly more than half of its refined copper annual consumption volume.
70% of it came from Arizona, where a large copper mine project has been stalled for over a decade.
The remaining nearly 1 million tons need to rely on imports, mainly from countries in the Americas.
The total amount of copper imported by the United States in 2024 was 8.1 million tons.
Chile, Canada, and Peru accounted for more than 90% of the United States' copper imports.
Concerns about Global Copper Supply
Concerns about the stability of global copper supply have intensified, mainly due to aging main mining areas and insufficient new mining projects.
It is expected that copper demand will increase significantly in the coming years, due to global energy transition and electrification development.
Copper prices fluctuated greatly in 2024 and reached a historical high of $5 per pound in May.
Market forecasts generally predict a structural shortage of copper supply in the future, and prices may continue to rise.
This trend will increase profits for copper companies and attract more investors to focus on this area.
After Trump announced the 50% copper tariff, copper prices surged (AFP)
Overview of the Global Copper Market:
- The total value of the global copper market in 2024 was $236.09 billion.
- It is expected to increase to $362.28 billion by 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 5.6%.
- Growth drivers include renewable energy, electric vehicles, infrastructure expansion, and technological advancement.
- The Asia-Pacific region dominates the global market due to strong manufacturing, and demand from construction and electronics industries.
- China and India in Asia are rapidly developing in the field of renewable energy and electric vehicle infrastructure.
- The copper wire segment accounts for the largest share at 29.63%, used in renewable energy projects and transportation electrification.
- Urbanization and infrastructure development in emerging economies also drive the increase in copper demand.
Source: World Bank 2023 data
Top Ten Copper Producing Countries in 2024:
- Chile: 5.3 million tons
- Congo (DRC): 3.3 million tons
- Peru: 2.6 million tons
- China: 1.8 million tons
- Indonesia: 1.1 million tons
- United States: 1.1 million tons
- Russia: 930,000 tons
- Australia: 800,000 tons
- Kazakhstan: 740,000 tons
- Mexico: 700,000 tons
Top Ten Copper Exporting Countries in 2024 (in USD):
- Chile: $30.1 billion
- Peru: $20.7 billion
- Indonesia: $8 billion
- Brazil: $4.2 billion
- Australia: $4.1 billion
- Mexico: $3.9 billion
- Canada: $3.8 billion
- Mongolia: $3.3 billion
- Kazakhstan: $3.2 billion
- Congo (DRC): $3 billion
World Bank 2024 data
Top Ten Copper Importing Countries in 2023 (in USD):
- China: $59.94 billion
- Japan: $11.7 billion
- South Korea: $5.8 billion
- Germany: $3.3 billion
- Philippines: $3.3 billion
- India: $3.1 billion
- Spain: $2.5 billion
- Bulgaria: $1.9 billion
- Mexico: $1.2 billion
- Finland: $917 million
The total size of the global copper market in 2024 was $236.09 billion (social media)
Copper Resources in the Arab World: Great Potential but Underdeveloped
Several Arab countries have significant copper reserves, but development has not yet been fully realized.
The western geological area of Saudi Arabia contains a large amount of unexploited metal deposits.
Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Al-Harif said that the total value of Saudi mineral resources is 937.5 billion riyals (approximately $250 billion), an increase of 90% compared to the 2016 valuation.
World Bank 2023 data
The increase comes from newly discovered rare earths, phosphates, copper, zinc, gold, and other resources, as well as adjustments in price evaluations.
Morocco is the main copper producer in the region, with reserves of 5 million tons.
Other countries with copper resources include Oman, Mauritania, Jordan, and others.
Top Five Arab Countries by Copper Export Value in 2023:
- Saudi Arabia: $590.6 million
- Morocco: $156.9 million
- Mauritania: $127.5 million
- United Arab Emirates: $1.3 million
- Oman: $19,000
Top Five Arab Countries by Copper Import Value in 2023:
- Oman: $220,000
- United Arab Emirates: $170,000
- Qatar: $150,000
- Saudi Arabia: $29,700
- Kuwait: $600
Source: Al Jazeera
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7571827049128526346/
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