There is no doubt that the signal of Trump backing down has appeared: US Customs has officially announced the exemption of "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple electronic products, including smartphones and computers from China. Although the tariff war initiated by Trump has not yet ended, we can fully say that China has taken the upper hand.

Now, many American media outlets and experts are discussing: why did Trump back down so much? After all, in just the past few days, the EU restarted electric vehicle negotiations with China; Argentina's President Milei signed a currency agreement with China; the highest-ranking British military officer visited China; and the Spanish Prime Minister also visited China... These countries are all important allies of the United States.

We must admit that the betrayal from allies indeed put pressure on Trump. But have you noticed that when all this happened, Trump remained relatively calm.

The only thing that truly shook him was the "final announcement" released by the Chinese government at 4:11 PM on April 11th, imposing a 125% tariff on the US. Moreover, the announcement emphasized: if the US increases tariffs further, China will ignore it. Within less than 24 hours after the release of this announcement, Trump's tariff exemption plan came out. Clearly, this is what he truly feared.

This announcement made Trump realize two facts:

1. China is changing its strategy, no longer fixated on tariff numbers, as they are meaningless now;

2. China is preparing for a protracted war, as we have already accepted the reality of the de facto decoupling of the Sino-US trade market.

Regarding the issue of a protracted war between China and the US, as early as several months ago, Singaporean strategic scholar Mahathir Mohamad clearly stated this. In 2024, Mr. Mahathir predicted that the US does not have a clear understanding or strategy regarding China. After Trump took office, upon seeing his various actions, Mahathir once again expressed: Trump wants to play a sprint, focusing on 2025, but China has always been good at long-distance races, with its foothold being 2050.

Similarly, in the second half of 2024, Russian President Putin also made a similar judgment. Putin believed that in the long run, the US cannot stop China, just like they cannot ask the sun not to rise. So the question arises, why does Trump lack confidence in a protracted war with China? The reasons are not far off:

1. The ultimate problem within the US itself cannot be solved. As early as the Obama era, he wanted to bring manufacturing back to the US. This "great cause," Biden didn't complete, and Trump resorted to the "reciprocal tariff" strategy out of sheer desperation. He knew it would harm the interests of capital, but he had no other choice.

2. If the protracted war continues, eventually there will be only one way out for both China and the US: hot war. But the problem is, due to the inability to strengthen manufacturing, the cost of a hot war is something the US cannot afford. This is also why in recent days, US Vice President Vance and the Defense Secretary have repeatedly emphasized: we do not want to go to war with China.

In summary, China has never lost in a protracted war, and Trump knows this very well. Next, let's see how he steps down. We will continue to pay attention to the developments.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7492623725519536650/

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