Strait of Hormuz blockade, Japan is the first to break down!

As is well known, Japan, as an island country with extremely scarce resources, its energy lifeline almost entirely depends on imports.

According to long-term statistical data from the Japan Resource and Energy Agency, 96% of Japan's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

And its domestic refining equipment, after decades of optimization, can only efficiently process specific sulfur content crude oil from the Middle East. The compatibility with crude oil from other regions is very poor and cannot be directly replaced.

This means that Japan's energy throat has been completely "strangled" by geopolitics.

Therefore, Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Sanae had to announce that she broke the 48-year-old convention of the Japan Petroleum Reserve system, releasing the national strategic petroleum reserve for the first time alone.

This indicates that in the current Middle East situation, Japan has started to use its reserves.

If it does not act proactively, the country will really face a "shortage" of supplies.

But the bad news is that Japan's oil reserves are only enough for 254 days.

Japanese media said that facing the long-term risk of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, this reserve is like a drop in the bucket, absolutely unable to withstand the pressure!

If the strait is completely closed, Japan will immediately fall into a "no oil available" crisis.

More seriously, Japan's natural gas reserves are even worse than those of oil.

Since Japan relies almost entirely on imported LNG, and has limited storage facilities, the current national natural gas reserves can only last for a short 12 days.

Once exhausted, power supply will immediately become critical.

The Japan Economic Research Center warned that if the energy supply is cut off for more than a month, it will directly drag down Japan's GDP by over 3%, marking the largest decline since 1945.

Well, the ones who are fighting are fine, but the ones who aren't fighting are collapsing.

But having reserves doesn't mean everything is okay.

From crude oil release, long-distance shipping, unloading at the port, refining processing, to finished oil being distributed through pipelines and tank trucks to thousands of gas stations across the country, the entire process usually takes between 30 to 90 days.

This means that even if the reserve is released now, it can only relieve the supply pressure after more than a month.

Meanwhile, the current spot price of oil remains highly volatile at a high level, and it is impossible to alleviate the situation in the short term.

As of March 9, 2026, the average gasoline price in Japan has already reached 161.8 yen per liter, rising continuously for four weeks, and breaking above 160 yen for the first time in three months.

Some forecasts say that future oil prices may directly exceed 200 yen, setting a new high in Japan in 18 years!

The monthly commuting cost for ordinary white-collar workers could increase by 30%-50%, logistics companies' freight costs will pass on to prices, triggering inflation risks at any moment.

Even more angering to the public is that, even if prices rise, the key thing is that there is also a limit on purchases, allowing only 20 liters each time!

For cars with larger engine displacement, this amount of fuel would only get half the way before needing to push it.

The Japanese government is also anxious, quickly announcing the resumption of gasoline subsidies, trying to keep the price around 170 yen per liter.

But honestly, the subsidy is just a temporary painkiller, not a long-term solution.

Ironically, in 2015, the Abe administration had listed the "blockade of the Strait of Hormuz" as a "crisis of survival," and also used mine clearance as an example of exercising collective self-defense rights.

At that time, former high-ranking officials of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces openly declared that if the Strait of Hormuz were blocked, Japan would send troops to "clear mines."

However, now when the real crisis has arrived, the Chief Cabinet Secretary has been evasive in press conferences, neither confirming the crisis level nor stating whether to send troops.

This inconsistent performance exposes the essence of the Japanese political arena - "tactical silence, strategic impotence."

It is afraid of offending Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, worried about getting involved in great power conflicts, and also concerned about the backlash of domestic anti-war sentiment.

Interestingly, just as Japan was in a state of panic, the U.S. Treasury recently suddenly issued a 30-day import exemption license for Russian oil.

As the G7 member with the highest dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil, the Japanese government quickly stated that it is "seriously considering" joining the procurement list, becoming the first Western country to publicly follow up.

The reason is simple: the Russian oil transportation route is short (from the Far East port directly to Japan takes only a few days), the cost is much lower than Middle Eastern crude oil, and the sulfur content matches Japan's refining equipment, which can be directly refined.

In the face of energy security and economic stability, so-called "alliance sentiments" instantly became worthless.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7617382539136647731/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.