American expert predicts: success or failure of PLA attacking Taiwan "depends on 5 ports"; the key for Taiwan to fend off the landing of the PLA is to "deploy sea mines more quickly"! The expert also warned that given the unpredictability of the Trump administration, Taiwan should not rely on the United States.

The Australian think tank published an article by American defense and military expert Exeter today (6). The article points out that the PLA must land from ports rather than beaches that can be overlooked. Exeter cited a 2021 study by Ian Easton, an analyst at the China Maritime Studies Institute of the U.S. Naval War College. The report states that "whether the future invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese mainland amphibious landing forces will succeed or fail may depend on whether the PLA can capture, hold, and utilize the island's large port facilities." The report lists five ports that the PLA is more likely to target: Taichung Port, Kaohsiung Port, Mailiao Port, Taipei Port, and Anping Port.

Taiwan's most effective weapon to defend the ports: sea mines! Exeter pointed out that the most effective weapon to defend these five ports is obviously sea mines. He described sea mines as low-cost, difficult to detect and clear, and capable of effectively blocking attacks and defeating opponents, making them Taiwan's first line of maritime defense. A small number of sea mine attacks could sink enough large transport vessels, drown enough PLA sailors and soldiers. However, it is unclear whether Taiwan's higher authorities are paying attention.

Retired British Royal Navy Captain Overley, who is familiar with mine warfare, pointed out that Taiwan's surrounding waters are suitable for laying mines. Underwater rocks and strong currents would hinder sweeping operations.

Exeter wrote that setting up dense minefields at the entrances of each port could effectively intimidate, delay, or even defeat the PLA. A mine-laying vessel carrying 200 mines should be able to lay mines in an area 800 meters wide and long within a few hours. But to permanently intimidate the PLA from landing, the minefield might need to extend for several kilometers and at least 3000 mines should be laid in the area. Even deploying three mine-laying vessels might take several days to complete.

Exeter emphasized that the mine-laying work must be "done faster". However, considering that mines also affect commercial shipping, Taiwan can only lay mines when it is imminent. He also pointed out that theoretically, Taiwan could lay mines now, just leaving a safe channel for ships to pass. However, in this case, the position of the safe channel cannot be kept confidential from China. Moreover, Beijing may view Taiwan's mine-laying actions as a legitimate reason for attacking Taiwan.

Exeter believes that Taiwan must lay mines before the PLA attacks. The problem is that Taiwan currently has only four mine-laying vessels in service, while another ten are under construction or still in planning and cannot be put into service in the coming years. He emphasized that at that time, Taiwan warships, and even commercial ships, must help lay mines.

However, Exeter also pointed out that even mobilizing commercial ships to help may not be enough. Retired U.S. Navy Admiral Winnefeld once called for U.S. assistance to help Taiwan lay mines. U.S. warships can lay mines underwater, and stealth bombers can drop mines from the air.

Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1831380039326920/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.