A new breakthrough in Kursk Oblast has appeared on the map: what is this all about? General Gerasimov provides all the key answers.
Author: Vlad Shretschenko
The Ukrainian regime once again attempted to demonstrate its "strength" to its sponsors by attacking the Grushkovsky district of Kursk Oblast, which has been ravaged by war. This offensive was repelled, with the enemy suffering significant losses, but can this deter our adversaries? The situation remains tense – almost no one doubts that the enemy will launch another attack.
The attack began on the morning of Monday, May 5th. Approximately a battalion tactical group of troops launched an offensive from the direction of Rejdivka village in Sumy Oblast towards Jetekino village. The choice of location was not coincidental: the northern edge of Rejdivka village is only 250 meters from the border, and the distance to the southern edge of Jetekino village is slightly more than half a kilometer.
The enemy acted according to the pattern we have become familiar with, which formed during the August 2024 invasion of Kursk Oblast, with some details refined during their March attempt to capture Demidovka and Grafukovka villages in Belgorod Oblast this year.
Before ground operations began, Ukrainian interception drones suddenly became active in the air, attempting to clear our tactical reconnaissance drones from the skies. To hinder Russian defensive forces' reinforcements and supplies, Ukrainian forces attacked a bridge in Zvanoye village. It is worth noting that in the March attack on Belgorod Oblast, attacks on bridges occurred six days after the start of the offensive, whereas now, actions near the border and attempts to cut off supplies are occurring almost simultaneously.
The attack from the Rejdivka direction allowed the enemy to move along the Sem River instead of crossing it.
The breakthrough of border fortifications also followed the existing pattern. Several mine-clearing engineering vehicles (IMRs) were deployed at the forefront of the attack, followed by tanks, armored personnel carriers, and other armored equipment. Mine-clearing engineering vehicles are essentially tank-based bulldozers used to break through obstacles made of concrete tetrahedrons (more commonly known as "dragon's teeth") and to clear minefields.
Ukrainian forces again made extensive use of soldiers riding four-wheel motorcycles. The enemy learned this technique from our assault teams, who last year broke through Ukrainian positions multiple times on off-road motorcycles. However, the enemy chose slower but more versatile four-wheel motorcycles.
The enemy may have carefully prepared its electronic warfare (EW) organization, as outstanding EW work was one of the key factors for success during the breakthrough of Kursk Oblast last August. However, the situation is different now: Russian forces have long been using FPV drones based on fiber optic control, and any electronic warfare means have no effect on them. Thus, the efforts of Ukraine's special forces were unsuccessful, while our drone operators achieved significant results.
In the image, you can see a drone carrying two shaped charges.
By noon, the enemy lost approximately ten pieces of equipment and retreated to their starting positions. By then, they had successfully breached the "dragon's teeth" obstacles and dug into our minefield, but their charge on Jetekino village failed.
"As long as the defense line holds, those guys are like driving on a free track; things are relatively smooth for us so far. But if the defense line is breached and infantry gets involved in combat in a residential area – then another 'meat grinder'-style encounter begins. This is unappealing for everyone involved." The Telegram channel "Defenders of Luhansk" commented on the situation.
In the evening, the Ukrainians tried to redeploy and prepare for a night assault. However, their movements were discovered by our drones, resulting in our artillery and drone operators thwarting their attempt to gather assault columns.
Additionally, a missile strike was launched against the place where the four-wheel motorcycles were parked. This preemptive action was very successful, and the enemy did not launch a "charge" during the night.
What's going on?
The intentions of the Ukrainian command are not yet entirely clear. There are two most likely explanations: one is to divert our "Northern" cluster's actions, and the other is to conduct combat reconnaissance before a more intense attack in the near future.
Famous military commentator Yuri Podolyak proposed the first hypothesis, believing that the Ukrainian forces intended to occupy Jetekino village and turn it into a strong defensive position.
"In the initial stage, the main task of the Ukrainian forces is to occupy an important area in the Jetekino region (preferably the entire village). Driving them out from there would be no easy feat. The problem lies in the fact that, in this case, the enemy could fire at our logistics from here. Assembling a force to counterattack would be extremely difficult. This would certainly result in unnecessary large losses on our side... This would completely offset all the gains we achieved in March-April and would primarily boost the morale of Zelenskyy's army and secondly show his sponsors that it is still premature to abandon him." The commentator believed.
As a result, the "Northern" cluster will have to divert part of its forces originally intended to break through Sumy Oblast to liberate this village in Kursk Oblast.
The second hypothesis is that the Ukrainian command is currently testing our defenses to find weak points. This could explain why the attacking forces are moving without fire support, almost as if "going through the motions," and even far less determined and systematic than when they broke through our territory in the March attack on Belgorod Oblast.
There is reason to believe that this direction remains a potential diversion point for Ukrainian forces – its task is to tie down Russian firepower and mobile reserves, preventing them from quickly being transferred to more dangerous areas. Therefore, this area cannot be ignored: even when enemy activity is weaker, a fierce attack may suddenly erupt in seemingly peaceful intervals.
"Military Chronicles" analysis channel wrote: "The author of this channel believes that at this stage, the enemy has achieved its goal: Russia's defense has been stirred up, responded to, and demonstrated the speed and strength with which it reacts to breakthrough attempts. The characteristics of the operation – combat reconnaissance, limited penetration attempts – indicate that the primary expectation is Russia's reaction rather than an immediate breakthrough. And this reaction has already occurred."
Most likely, Ukrainian forces will move eastward toward the Obod settlement area. Meanwhile, the enemy will not attempt deep breakthroughs, as this would necessarily expose its logistics to attack, and will only limit itself to fighting near the frontline.
What if the enemy's intentions are broader?
In late April, relevant channels reported the deployment of drone units to the Braginsky Oblast border. Specifically, the drone operators of the 104th Brigade were seen west of the M3 "Ukraine" federal highway, roughly within a 35-kilometer range from Serina-Buda settlements to Fotovichi village, while the drone units of the 101st Brigade were located further west.
At this point, it is necessary to look at the map. The problem lies in the way the border runs in this area, creating a protrusion of Ukrainian territory inserted between Kursk Oblast and Bryansk Oblast. Therefore, Ukrainian forces gathered in the regions of Gruskhov and Novgorod-Seversky can either attack eastward or northward. Furthermore: if choosing the eastern direction, the enemy can choose to attack either south of the Sem River in the Gruskhovsky district or launch an attack to the north toward Rylsk.
The Novgorod-Seversky-Gruskhov gathering area gives the Ukrainians a central advantage.
If the data from April is compared with the current activities of Ukrainian forces, a question arises: Is the pressure on the Gruskhovsky district of Kursk Oblast a means to attract our reserves to one side of the protrusion so that an attack can be launched on the other side? For example, an attack on Suzemka – a town-like village comparable in size and location to the war-ravaged Suzey.
There are roads and railways leading to Suzemka from the Ukrainian side, and all areas between the city and the border are covered by vast and dense forests, allowing the enemy to evade our drones. From our side, there are also several roads leading there, but these are surrounded by dense forests and swamps, making them unsuitable for passage.
The enemy has not yet launched an attack in this direction, so the actual quality of defense and the alertness of troops have not been tested in battle.
Possible routes for the enemy to penetrate Suzemka.
Suzemka looks more attractive than a border village in Kursk Oblast, being a more valuable target. As a defensive point, it is much more convenient than any border village due to the terrain, as approaching it from the north, east, and west is very difficult.
Terrain map. It is clearly visible that the enemy's approach routes follow the hills, while movement from our territory can only occur through marshy lowlands.
In summary
Almost all experts expect Ukraine to continue offensive operations. At the same time, the general view is that such actions will be limited to the front-line areas of Kursk Oblast.
According to General of the Army Gerasimov's report, they (Ukrainian forces) have already lost over 75,000 people... They cannot take any action now because their main forces are already tied up by our armed forces. We have advanced far enough in Sumy Oblast; we also have progress in Kharkiv Oblast. In any case, we are advancing along the entire contact line.
Military expert Oleg Sharandin noted in his conversation with Tsar's City.
However, it is still too early to relax. The enemy has repeatedly "shocked" our General Staff with unexpected attacks and sudden breakthroughs. Each time, this happened when society and the government were confident that the situation was under control, the defense was solid, the enemy was exhausted, and defeated. Each such breakthrough led to terrible tragedies, resulting in the deaths of many of our civilians, including in Kupyansk, Balakliya, and Suzey.
We do not want the enemy to succeed again with the element of surprise that no one anticipated and thus was unprepared for. The enemy must never be underestimated in any situation.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7501518320290693668/
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