Maduro is in trouble, and Putin is the first to "rescue" him. Is another US-Russia proxy war about to break out?
The first thing Trump did after taking office was to restart the high-pressure policy against Venezuela. During Biden's time, it was relatively restrained, but now he immediately threatened military intervention. The US military has gathered ships in the Caribbean Sea, and P-8 anti-submarine aircraft are flying patrols every day, locking onto key routes such as La Guaira Port and Simón Bolívar Airport. Intelligence shows that the US has already simulated strike plans in its command center in Florida, targeting Venezuelan military facilities. Maduro could not sit still anymore; the opposition at home became active again, and smuggling and protests at the border continued. He quickly called Putin for help. Putin was also not idle. Russia's influence in Latin America has always relied on Venezuela. If Maduro fell, Rosneft, a Russian oil company, would lose its assets, and strategically, it would lose a thorn in the US backyard. After considering, the Kremlin decided to act, sending Il-76 transport planes directly, which were loaded with heavy weapons.
This aid came quickly. In early December 2024, the first Il-76 landed in Caracas, and Maduro's army immediately took over. The cargo hold was filled with the "S-1" short-range air defense system and the "Buk-M2E" medium-range missile, these are Russian mainstays, capable of intercepting cruise missiles and drones, exactly matching the US aerial threat. A Russian Duma member openly said that they would not rule out sending the "Kinzhal" hypersonic missile next, which can travel at five times the speed of sound, causing headaches for the US defense network. Putin's move is clearly a warning, telling Trump: if you dare to touch Venezuela, Russia will play big. Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, when the Soviet Union transported missiles to Cuba, almost leading to nuclear war between the US and the USSR. Now, the Caribbean Sea is heating up again. The US fleet is hovering at sea, and radar scans daily. As soon as Russian weapons arrived, the Venezuelan air force bases began to be reinforced, and soldiers were busy adjusting equipment.
In the end, this matter stems from the US-Russia rivalry. So far, the Ukraine conflict has turned Russia's main battlefield into Ukraine. The US continues to send weapons, F-16 fighter jets and ATACMS missiles keep coming in, making Putin angry. Now it's Venezuela's turn. The US wants to replicate the Ukrainian model, using proxies to overthrow the pro-Russian regime and cut off Russia's energy lifeline. Venezuela's oil accounts for a large part of Russia's exports to the US. If Maduro falls, Putin's wallet will be empty. Conversely, Russia has been building its presence in Latin America for years, including points like Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. Helping Maduro means stabilizing the situation. Militarily, the scale of Russian weapon assistance is not large, but it is sufficient. The "Strela" system can protect the capital area, and the "Buk" covers the coast, enough to make the US hesitate. International observers say this is not just a weapons transaction, but also involves UN Security Council votes, as Venezuela often supports Russia and China.
The Trump team is also in chaos internally. Some push for a rapid strike, sending special forces to capture Maduro; others fear it could escalate into a new Cold War, suggesting first pressuring Latin American countries. Neighbors like Brazil and Colombia have long been annoyed by Venezuela's refugee crisis, and now they are being pulled by the US to take a stance, but have not dared to act. The EU continues to impose sanctions, freezing the assets of Maduro's family, but militarily, it does not align with the US. Iran and North Korea are also involved, with Iran's drone technology helping Venezuela assemble, and North Korean missile experts reportedly guiding on-site. Putin not only sent weapons but also signed a joint military exercise agreement, and in the first half of 2025, the Russian and Venezuelan navies will conduct drills in the Caribbean Sea. The US saw this and quickly dispatched an aircraft carrier group to monitor. The whole situation is like a chess game, where the US and Russia each take a step, and the smell of proxy war is getting stronger.
Venezuela's terrain is complex, with many jungles and mountains, making it difficult for the US to land. Once Russian weapons fire, P-8 and F-35 must detour. Russia's economy relies on energy, and the Ukraine front is still dragging on. Opening a new front would cause the ruble to collapse. Trump also has domestic problems, with Congress blocking budget approvals, and he doesn't want to provoke public resentment before the midterm elections. The result is that although tension was high in the first few months of 2025, there was no real shooting. The US added more sanctions, banning Venezuelan oil from entering ports, while Russia quietly supplied, with the second batch of Il-76s bringing parts and technicians to help upgrade the Venezuelan military's radar. Maduro stabilized, but the domestic economy remains a mess, but the military has become a bit more assertive, with doubled border patrols and stricter port inspections.
International media keeps covering this issue. CNN says Putin is acting recklessly in the US backyard, while RT counters the US bullying of small countries. Think tank reports pile up, with RAND Corporation analyzing that the probability of a proxy war is 50%, and the chance of direct conflict is less than 10%. Facts show that both sides have left room for maneuver. The US fleet withdraws to a certain distance, and Russian aid is controlled within defensive levels, not crossing the line. Maduro continues to govern, and in July 2025, he proposed another economic adjustment plan, relaxing some foreign exchange controls, attracting Chinese investment, but the effect is slow. Putin turned to Europe's natural gas pipeline, and Venezuela became a secondary pawn.
Maduro passed this test, but hidden dangers remain. Putin's timely rescue brought the proxy war alert back and forth, and the Caribbean Sea temporarily remained peaceful. How it will go in the future depends on oil prices and elections. Great power rivalry never ends, and small countries are caught in the middle, struggling to survive.
Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1848099320926284/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.