Unexpected risk of nuclear war: India and Pakistan are preparing to strike, the five "masterminds" behind the scenes
Author: Sergey Radishev
April 24, 2025, 23:00
Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan are on the verge of military conflict, with both sides claiming victory. However, a large-scale war is unlikely to break out. The escalation of tensions in South Asia is triggered by the deadliest terrorist attack in Kashmir since the 21st century. This attack was planned by an Islamic organization based in Pakistan. The terrorists cruelly killed 26 tourists who came to admire the beautiful scenery of Kashmir, including some foreigners. Leaders from various countries around the world, including Russia and the United States, condemned this terrorist attack and expressed condolences. What will happen next?
Newspapers in India have already published photos of these criminals and offered rewards for their capture. Security forces are conducting large-scale operations to apprehend terrorists, but so far without success. Indians are boiling with anger again. Pakistan is its archenemy. For Indians, this is a survival-related threat stirred up by propaganda (and vice versa). And now such incidents have occurred.
(Protesters in Srinagar (the summer capital of Indian-controlled Kashmir) demonstrate against the government's inadequate handling of the Pahalgam terror attack. Video source: RUPTLY)
And this happened in Kashmir, the disputed territory between neighboring countries. Kashmir is the only region in India, which is predominantly Hindu, where the majority of residents are Muslims.
In 2019, New Delhi canceled a series of privileges enjoyed by Jammu and Kashmir, which had bred corruption, discrimination against local residents, and hindered local development, and subsequently divided this state into two centrally administered union territories.
Since 1947, India and Pakistan have fought three major wars and two minor wars, all of which occurred to varying degrees in the Kashmir region.
Modi: We will find them even at the ends of the earth
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told a large rally that "India will identify, track down, and punish every terrorist and their protectors, making them dare not imagine what kind of punishment they might receive," and will "track them down to the ends of the earth." He declared that "India's spirit will never be crushed by terrorism," and the punishment for terrorists will be "significant and severe."
(Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, "India will identify, track down, and punish every terrorist and their protectors." Screenshot source: Reuters)
The main opposition party in India, the Indian National Congress Party, called on the government to ensure judicial intervention to confirm support for security forces and government efforts to combat terrorism, and urged international pressure on Pakistan to stop supporting terrorist activities targeting India.
The Road to Conflict
Of course, words and gestures alone cannot solve problems. India has closed its border with Pakistan, suspended implementation of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, recalled its ambassador to Islamabad, and halved embassy staff. Staff at the Pakistani Embassy in New Delhi were required to leave Indian territory within a week. This involved all Pakistani military attaches recognized in India as well as about half of civilian diplomatic personnel.
India banned Pakistani citizens from entering and gave those Pakistani citizens currently in India who obtained South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) visas through a simplified process 48 hours to leave Indian territory. Pakistan placed its military on full alert to counter any actions by India.
In the past, similar situations have led to airstrikes and artillery attacks on terrorist camps in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, followed by retaliatory artillery fire and air combat. A border war is not impossible, although it would benefit no one - especially India.
The Indian government strengthened security along its western coast to prevent a repeat of the November 2008 attack by Pakistani terrorists on Mumbai, India's commercial capital, which resulted in 175 deaths and significant economic losses.
(The 2008 attack on Mumbai, Indian media compared it to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack in New York.)
The key checkpoint at the border with Pakistan, Atari, was closed. Official announcements stated that people could return through this checkpoint before May 1, 2025, suggesting when India might begin retaliation. The National Capital Region (including New Delhi) announced a high state of alert. Pakistan suspended all bilateral agreements with India, including treaties after the third Indo-Pakistani War. India's airspace was closed to Pakistan. This is far from all the measures taken by India and Pakistan under the current situation. The situation is becoming increasingly tense, and a crisis looms in the coming days.
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry's extremely restrained response to this heinous crime made the arrival of the crisis inevitable, and during this process, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry did not forget to "blame" India: Islamabad only "expressed concern" and extended condolences to the families of the victims in the "Kashmir region illegally occupied by India."
Hmm, these righteous fighters against "occupation" seem to have gotten carried away.
Who committed this crime?
Clearly, any action requiring preparation has specific targets, and there are perpetrators, masterminds, and beneficiaries.
Regarding the perpetrators, the situation is gradually becoming clear. According to information disclosed by India's intelligence department to The Times of India, the perpetrators are armed militants from the "Resistance Front" - a destruction branch of a terrorist organization based in Pakistan, even banned in Russia! - and the radical terrorist organization "Lashkar-e-Taiba".
Vikram Misri, the first deputy minister of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, confirmed at a press conference: "During the National Security Council meeting, cross-border links in this terrorist attack were discovered."
Misri emphasized that "those responsible for this attack and its sponsors will be held accountable," and "India will relentlessly pursue those who commit acts of terrorism."
(India announced a series of retaliatory measures and hinted at possible further actions in response to Pakistan's support for terrorism within India.
Screenshot source: The New York Times)
Why did they do this, and who was behind it? Regional Situation: Local Gangs and Islamabad
Still, Misri pointed out that the terrorist attack occurred after the federal territory successfully held elections and during a period of accelerated economic development in the region.
This is undoubtedly true. India's domestic opposition forces (religious-based pro-Pakistan separatism exists in Kashmir) and external forces hope to create as many obstacles as possible for India. The worse the situation is for them, the better. They do not believe that India's prosperity benefits them. The more terrorist attacks there are and the greater the impact, the less investment there will be in the region, and the harder people's lives will become, correspondingly weakening the power of the Indian government. This is certainly a motive, the first point.
Second, terrorists depend on terrorist attacks to survive. Their "prestige" attracts more new members, increasing their "prestige." This is also a way for them to gain funds - if they can provide important services to the masterminds, they can "earn" a lot of money.
Pakistan is a very special country - in fact, it is like several countries nested together (especially noteworthy is the separation between the military and intelligence agencies and the civilian government). There are different provinces here, with secessionist sentiments, and some remote areas that are difficult to manage from the center - for example, the northwestern regions near Afghanistan, and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir (after the partition of British India in 1947, Pakistan immediately occupied about half of this region), where actual power is often in the hands of local elites, tribal leaders, and other terrorist organizations, allowing them to act as they please.
They are very dissatisfied with India's "occupation" of the rest of Kashmir and incorporating it into its national map. Therefore, this terrorist attack may have been motivated by local "resentment." This is basically the first suspect - religiously influenced local gangs.
But the mastermind behind the terrorist attack could also be external forces. The second suspect is Islamabad. Here's why. Due to the competition among clans in different provinces for power, Pakistan is on the brink of civil war. The best way to avoid civil war is to unite the nation against an external enemy. Islamabad may also have set a goal to prevent India from getting close to other Muslim countries. The Kashmir terrorist attack occurred while Modi was visiting Saudi Arabia, forcing him to cut short his visit.
External force possibilities: United States, United Kingdom, other countries
Islamabad's closest ally in its anti-India stance cannot rule out the possibility that the purpose of this terrorist attack is... to warn India that the United States is actively courting India. The timing of the Kashmir conflict coincides with the visit of U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance and his family to India. Vance met with Modi and visited various parts of India. He expressed to politicians and businessmen in Jaipur: "The 21st century will be determined by the relationship between the United States and India."
(Don't be misled by Vance's satisfied performance during his trip to India - The Washington Post reported that Trump administration policies have caused great harm to Indians. Website screenshot of the article)
The target of the Kashmir terrorist attack may be to show India that New Delhi will have to pay a high price for its proximity to the United States, as the United States needs India to harm other countries' interests. India should not do this.
There are also serious contradictions in the expansion abroad between certain countries and India: they are direct competitors, especially in Africa and Oceania. Although certain countries can provide more resources and are better funded, culturally, their actions in these regions are more difficult than India's unless they rely on local immigrants. Some partners sometimes feel disappointed with strict accountability requirements, discipline, and the need to manage their own economic projects. India's flexible and tolerant cooperation model that accommodates local weaknesses is easier for them to understand. Considering that the United States intends to eliminate certain countries' influence in the world - this model may soon become more popular.
Another possible mastermind is the United States, which likes to use terrorists in geopolitical games. Here, it may be trying to use Pakistan and its tight alliance relationship, while relations between the United States and these two countries are very tense and will deteriorate further. The United States dreams of surrounding its opponents with unfriendly countries and places great - we'll say it again - emphasis on India's role in this regard.
But the United States also faces problems now. The Trump administration not only imposed tariffs on goods but also imposed tariffs on Indian goods. Of course, the latter's tariffs are much lower, but as The Washington Post wrote, this is prompting India to develop trade with relevant countries.
But this is not the main issue. As Alexei Kupriyanov, head of the Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes, relevant countries are dissatisfied with the heightened tensions between Pakistan and India, as the two countries had initially reached a certain degree of rapprochement. After the BRICS Summit in Kazan, relevant countries and India reached an agreement on troop withdrawal from disputed border areas, and the two sides began a new round of border negotiations. Relevant countries had to respond to the conflict between Pakistan and India, which would undoubtedly worsen their relations.
One cannot completely rule out British sabotage - Britain, the former colonial ruler of the Indian subcontinent, bears responsibility for many problems in the region and has close ties with Islamic terrorist organizations.
There are two reasons for the intense struggle between London and the Modi government. First, they believe that the Modi government emphasizes national sovereignty and independence too much, rejecting the Western model of globalization (although Indians have deeply penetrated Western economies, finances, and even political structures in some aspects). Second, India under Modi does not want to participate in Britain's globalist project "Global Britain," as India sees this project as a new form of colonialism and still harbors painful memories of the colonial past.
A failed border war, instability in India's economy, public discontent - all of these could shake Modi's position and lead to India replacing its government prematurely - with a government more acceptable to London.
What then?
Comprehensive analysis of all these factors suggests the behavior of the victim - India. India must respond, or terrorists in Kashmir will commit such crimes with increasing severity. But the response must be moderate enough not to trigger a large-scale war that India does not need at all.
In this semi-detective case, Russia can play a very active role. India has long maintained good relations with Russia, and Pakistan has also had good relations with Russia in recent years. Especially India. In 1966, Moscow once reconciled New Delhi and Islamabad, ending a "major war" between the two countries. This experience can be referenced again.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497085829828067879/
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