Editor's note: Recently, the trade war has been escalating. US President Trump has continuously increased tariffs on Chinese goods, and China eventually retaliated with a 125% tariff. This "numbers game" initiated by Trump has dealt a heavy blow to American soybean farmers, as China is their largest overseas market. In 2024 alone, more than half of America's soybean exports were shipped to China. Many farmers in the Midwest region have suffered significant losses; however, in the presidential election, this group overwhelmingly supported Trump's re-election.

One of them is Caleb Regland, aged 38 from Magnolia, Kentucky. He voted for Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Despite this, as the president of the American Soybean Association, representing 500,000 soybean growers across the nation, he is deeply concerned about how tariffs will impact him and his colleagues. The translation provided here is for readers' reference only and does not represent the views of Guancha Observer Network.

【By/Caleb Regland, Translated by Chen Jiarui, Guancha Observer Network】

My family has been farming for generations, tracing back to 1808 when my great-great-great-grandfather cut down some trees, built a small house and barn, and planted crops to sustain us. At my home in Magnolia, Kentucky, I can see their gravestones. My grandfather and father taught me farming, and now I pass this tradition on to my three sons, who are 14, 12, and 9 years old.

In the 1980s, farmers in our area transitioned from raising dairy cows and growing tobacco to planting soybeans. With the advent of new technologies, the market changed, making it possible to farm on more rugged land and use herbicides without harming crops. However, due to the Sino-US trade war, I am worried that by 2027 we may no longer be able to continue. All that history, heritage, effort, and sweat could be lost in one piece of paper.

Soybeans are one of the most versatile crops globally, with thousands of uses: they can be used to feed herds, converted into biofuel and rubber, and even produce seed oil widely used in the food industry. Last year, soybeans ranked first among major crops in my hometown of Kentucky. However, as I sowed crops this spring, I was filled with anxiety and uncertainty. Who will buy my harvest come October?

About 30 years ago, the U.S. became the leading soybean producer. At that time, China was undergoing an industrial transformation, people's living standards were improving, and they began purchasing large quantities of our soybeans. As disposable income increased, the demand for meat surged, leading to explosive growth in the need for soybeans to feed more poultry, cattle, and pigs. To this day, 70% of China's imported soybeans are still used to feed livestock.

Caleb Regland on his farm in Magnolia, Kentucky

Soybean farming never stops throughout the year. In spring, we till the soil and sow seeds, constantly weeding. After harvesting in autumn, we load the soybeans onto semi-trailers and transport them to grain handlers at riverside or railway stations, known as "grain elevators." The nearest grain elevator to my home is located 100 miles away on the Ohio River.

Part of the soybeans are crushed, separating them into soybean meal and soybean oil. About half stays domestically, sold to American buyers; the other half is loaded onto barges and shipped down the Mississippi River, then transported overseas for a long global journey lasting several months. Last year, 52% of US exported soybeans were sold to China, approximately one-fifth went to the EU, with the remainder going to Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and other places. Currently, the price of soybeans is around $10 per bushel, but just three years ago, it was $17 per bushel.

Some suggest selling all our soybeans domestically, but this would mean doubling our current domestic market share. Clearly, this cannot happen overnight. It implies that American poultry, beef, pork consumption, and biofuel production would also need to double.

Like many farmer friends, I voted for Donald Trump in the last three elections. His promise to cut taxes for businesses, along with his concrete actions to reduce regulations and cut government spending, won my favor.

Back in 2018, Trump negotiated a favorable trade deal for farmers with China. However, we encountered a problem that greatly reduced its effectiveness: Joe Biden. The first phase of the trade agreement was supposed to take effect in 2020, but after Trump lost the election, President Biden refused to implement the agreement.

This afternoon, President Trump announced a suspension of retaliatory tariffs for countries willing to negotiate. In my view, this demonstrates the president's sincerity. Although the 125% tariff on China remains in place, Trump clearly indicated that both sides can still sit at the negotiating table and reach an agreement beneficial to both countries.

Reaching an agreement is urgent. The agricultural economy is much weaker now compared to Trump's first term. After the first trade war, we lost nearly 10% of our market share in China, which has yet to recover. The Biden administration neither made efforts to enforce the trade targets in the agreement nor promoted the development of American agricultural interests. Added to this are inflation and rising production costs, making the situation worse. Now, farmers have tighter budgets and less resilience to risks.

The longer the deadlock persists, the more likely China will shift its business elsewhere, such as Brazil. Brazil can convert up to 70 million acres of land for agriculture by cutting down rainforests and transforming degraded pastures. They are already working on these projects, and it might only take a few months to complete. If I were a gambler, I would bet that Brazil could expand its land and output faster than we increase domestic demand.

Caleb Regland on his farm in Magnolia, Kentucky

Many American farms are large-scale enterprises worth millions of dollars. Land, fuel, equipment, storage, labor, and insurance costs currently amount to about $600 per acre. This means that for a farm with 1,000 acres of land, the cost of planting crops reaches $600,000. Most farmers rely on bank loans to raise funds, but increased risks also lead to higher interest rates.

As one of the 500,000 soybean growers in the United States, I also feel this pain. Our income entirely depends on our own farm, while supporting three full-time employees' families. My farm grows 1,500 acres of soybeans. At $600 per acre, the total cost amounts to $900,000. However, under current conditions, each acre brings in only $500, meaning total revenue is $750,000, resulting in a loss of $150,000.

This year, we plan to cover the gap through loans to barely make ends meet. But not every farmer has such good fortune. I have witnessed friends struggling financially forced to sell their farms. Some had to declare bankruptcy and become farm laborers, barely getting by.

Most farmers can no longer afford any losses. Ultimately, we are spending money to work, meaning debts will take many good years to repay.

This is not just about farmers' interests; it affects every American.

From seed and fertilizer retailers to agronomists helping farmers make the best financial decisions, the agriculture and food industries provide support for over 34 million American jobs and contribute $1.5 trillion to the economy. These industries are lifelines for the American Midwest.

As a businessman, Trump understands the urgency of this issue. The current trade war with China is essentially a high-stakes gamble affecting the livelihoods of Americans, especially farmers who grow up with the land and sweat. They cannot imagine life in any other industry.

Mr. President, I hope you can hear our plea: please reach an agreement with China now.

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