Vietnam recently reported that the North-South High-Speed Rail project is considering using Siemens technology from Germany. VinSpeed, a company owned by Vietnam's richest person, Pham Nhat Vuong, has decided to jointly bid with Siemens for the project, with the latter providing partial technology transfer. However, upon closer inspection, the Vietnam Ministry of Railways has not announced that VinSpeed has won the bid; this is merely a collaboration between two companies.

As for the multi-nation competition scenario that Vietnam had hoped for in the high-speed rail contract, it has yet to materialize. Instead, the Japanese ambassador announced that Japan has officially withdrawn from the "Ninh Thuan 2" nuclear power plant project in Vietnam, as the Vietnamese plan to start operations by 2035 is too tight, and the $20 billion loan is also difficult for Japan. It seems that Vietnam's infrastructure upgrade plans are once again facing obstacles.

(Imaginary picture of Pham Nhat Vuong's high-speed rail)

Some researchers believe that Vietnam is a country with great ambitions. Especially in recent years, as Western countries have attempted to decouple supply chains from China, they have tried to cultivate countries like Vietnam and India into the next manufacturing stars.

Therefore, Vietnam has received a large amount of foreign direct investment, so the North-South High-Speed Rail project, which was previously unaffordable, has been put back on the agenda. Western countries are also concerned that if Vietnam acquires high-speed rail technology, it could have a significant impact on China's international market expansion.

If Vietnam indeed gains access to high-speed rail technology and its accompanying supply chain, it would certainly lead to a significant enhancement of its overall national strength. This is what the Vietnamese government wants.

After all, the enormous social and economic benefits that China has gained through high-speed rail construction are highly coveted by many countries and regions, including the United States, which even hopes to achieve a high-speed rail miracle on its own soil.

(VinSpeed signing a deal with Siemens)

But here lies the problem: Can foreigners replicate the miracles that China has created?

At the beginning of China's high-speed rail project, there was already a solid industrial foundation. Let's just talk about the locomotive manufacturing plants. There were a large number of factories such as Changchun, Dalian, Tangshan, Qingdao, Zhuzhou, and Qishuyan. During the mid-reform period, foreign analysts discussing China's economic development prospects pointed out that China's industrial base was quite strong, and one of the examples they gave was that China could produce railway locomotives on its own. The supply chain required for locomotives could also be entirely resolved within mainland China.

This kind of railway industry foundation does not exist in Vietnam. Therefore, Vietnam's repeated requests for contractors to transfer technology are largely aimed at building up its railway industry and related supply chains through the construction of the North-South High-Speed Rail, thereby creating an opportunity for the country to leap forward toward an industrial society.

(Such a low-level railway system, Vietnam still needs to import from abroad)

So can Vietnam achieve this goal? At least it cannot be achieved through a $6 billion investment in high-speed rail. Even adding another zero may not be enough.

Perhaps in Vietnam's view, it has more than 100 million people, capable of being compared to Japan, with a much stronger human resources base than South Korea. Located in Southeast Asia, with abundant natural resources, Vietnam has every hope of developing into an industrialized country comparable to Japan. But Japan's industrialization was achieved through massive investments. The funds came partly from internal exploitation and mainly from war indemnities from the First Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War. Vietnam does not have such historical opportunities to plunder resources for industrialization.

The development of Japan's railway industry also has a long history. Starting from the Meiji Restoration, Japan entered the railway industry and established a complete supply chain. After the Mukden Incident, Japan occupied Northeast China and laid a large number of railways to exploit resources, producing a large number of steam locomotives. These facilities were later taken over by our country after the victory of the War of Resistance Against Japan.

In short, the basic infrastructure that New China invested in modernization 80 years ago is something that Vietnam does not have to this day. The Vietnamese government and the country do not seem to be willing to make serious efforts for this, but instead rely on expecting technology transfers from abroad.

(VinSpeed also produces electric vehicles)

So will Japan or Germany hand-holdly teach Vietnam railway industry technology? This is also unlikely. Whether it is Siemens or Kawasaki Heavy Industries, they do not want to train a new competitor. China Railway's strong global competitiveness has already made them very hard-pressed. Moreover, Vietnam hopes to use foreign government loans to pay for high-speed rail construction. Which country would want to use its own money to train a competitor for its own enterprises, only to face a long and uncertain repayment period?

Therefore, the relevant units in Vietnam constantly make statements to attract high-speed rail suppliers such as China, Germany, Japan, France, and South Korea to compete for their cake and gain benefits. However, the strategy that China can adopt is not applicable to Vietnam, because China has a huge domestic market. The railway companies of these countries have made money in China, some by selling vehicles and some by selling equipment. What they are disappointed about is only that they have not managed to crush China's national industry. Vietnam's market size is small, purchasing power is weak, and the future is unstable. Trying to simply follow China's path has no chance of success.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7589103837370122787/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.