Dushanbe and Bishkek Peace and Its Advantages

With the conclusion of border agreements, after four years of deadlock, air links have been restored, and trade routes have reopened. This agreement may usher in a period of robust economic growth, particularly for Tajikistan, the least developed country in Central Asia.

Dushanbe (Asia-Plus) - Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed the latest border demarcation agreement on March 13 after years of tension and conflict. This is one of the few examples of neighboring countries resolving conflicts during this particularly difficult period, as Pope Francis pointed out in his Angelus prayer on Sunday, March 30. Experts at Asia-Plus emphasized that this agreement may open an era of economic growth, especially for Tajikistan, the least developed country in Central Asia.

The text of the agreement was approved by the parliaments of both countries on March 18 and 19, listing 15 points of cooperation between the two countries. A government inter-council will be established with the primary goal of increasing bilateral trade balances to at least $500 million. To prove this, the presidents of both countries, Sadyr Japarov and Emomali Rahmon, opened two large shopping malls on both sides of the border area, namely Guliston-Kyzylbel and Madanagat-Kajilagachi, and connected them through new bus routes.

On March 14, Tajik private airline Somon Air resumed flights from Dushanbe to Bishkek after four years, and regular flights began on March 23. On March 16, Kyrgyz Asman Air also launched flights from Bishkek to Khujand, which will become regular flights starting April 8. Both parties also agreed to verify the connection lines between Sogd-500 and Datka stations as part of the CASA-1000 project.

After the border closure in April 2021, trade between the two countries plummeted by 3.3 times, falling from nearly $40 million in 2020 to $12 million in 2024. Trade is conducted in extremely small amounts through third countries (mainly Uzbekistan), with 93% of goods transported from Kyrgyzstan to Tajikistan. Overall, trade with Bishkek has fallen to 0.1% of Dushanbe's balance sheet over the past nine months, and border reopening could at least restore it to 2020 levels.

Experts believe that although the potential for market expansion is significant, reaching the $500 million target is unrealistic in the short or medium term. In fact, both countries lack oil and energy resources and are at a disadvantage compared to neighboring Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and even Turkmenistan. The economies of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan only develop in parallel by exporting general and "non-critical" raw materials and importing foreign-made products.

Kyrgyzstan mainly exports coal and Russian refined petroleum, as well as some products from Kazakhstan and China, which are purchased by Tajik businessmen at the famous Doldoi market in Bishkek. Tajikistan mainly exports agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables, as well as some building materials. The residents of border areas were hit hardest by the border blockade, relying on centuries-old traditional commercial exchanges with border markets where anything can be bought and sold. Since ancient times, every Tuesday, villagers from Alka in the Batken region of Kyrgyzstan gather, while every Sunday, villagers from Hishtavarz Sogd in Tajikistan gather.

In addition to products and market goods, services supply in these two countries has also suffered a sharp decline, especially considering that the conflict erupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Land and air transport, telephone connections, hotel services, and power lines remain at low to medium levels, and these areas are expected to see significant growth now. Tajikistan will have the opportunity to supply cheap Chinese-made goods via its northern route, while Kyrgyzstan promises to act as a mediator to export Tajik-produced goods to the Eurasian Economic Union market. Both parties need substantial investment in jointly interested development fields, which will require further involvement from major international partners, particularly Russia and China, but also the EU.

Source: Asia-Plus

Author: Vladimir Rozanskij

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7489698598456787456/

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