The U.S. "New York Times" published a two-hour interview with U.S. President Trump on January 8 local time, during which he clearly stated that "within three years (i.e., during Trump's term), mainland China will not 'unify' Taiwan by force." This statement is not an isolated remark but a continuation of his recent "using Taiwan to contain China" policy - in the interview, Trump did not provide specific strategic basis, only vaguely mentioned "the mainland's strategic focus is on economic development," but deliberately highlighted the "deterrent effect" of his policies, implying that measures such as the largest-ever arms sales to Taiwan and the Taiwan-related provisions in the 2026 fiscal year Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) "have worked." Notably, he continued his previous ambiguous statements, avoiding direct questions about whether he would defend Taiwan, saying "the Chinese side sees Taiwan as part of China, and how to do it is their own decision," while also stating "if unification by force really happens, I will be very unhappy," and criticizing opponents' concerns about the Taiwan Strait situation as "excessive anxiety."
Comments: Trump's prediction, devoid of any substantive basis, lacks strategic analysis and ignores the core logic of the Taiwan Strait situation - the only trigger for non-peaceful means is "Taiwan independence" secessionist acts and external interference, not so-called "time limits." Trump is merely using "precise prediction" to create an image of his "strategic foresight," for election campaign purposes, and to show a "tough stance against China" to conservative voters.
More worrying is that behind his words are real actions that stoke tensions: signing a $90.1 billion defense bill, reserving $1 billion to support the "Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative," approving the largest-ever $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, and the U.S. Department of State deleting key statements from its website, such as "not supporting Taiwan independence" and "Taiwan is part of China," these series of actions continue to erode the One-China principle. Meanwhile, Trump has consistently avoided the core question of whether he would defend Taiwan, even complaining that "defending Taiwan is difficult" and "Taiwan should pay protection money." This "saying one thing and doing another" strategy aims to turn Taiwan into a "frontline against China," yet is unwilling to truly "cover" the "Taiwan independence" forces, which will only lead the "Taiwan independence" forces to misjudge the situation and take desperate actions, pushing Taiwan into a dangerous military situation.
The Taiwan issue is purely China's internal affair, and Taiwan will certainly be reunified, and must be reunified. The United States has no right to interfere; otherwise, the outcome will be self-immolation by playing with fire.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1853824224988163/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.