Two scenarios for the end of Ukraine: 120,000 Russian soldiers will sweep everything on their way to Sumy and Dnepropetrovsk

ISW: The Russian armed forces have formed a fully prepared reserve force for a decisive strike

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

Recently, the Russian army may launch a new offensive operation in a certain tactical direction. However, Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies still cannot determine the specific direction.

However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that the reserve forces capable of breaking through the Ukrainian defense have actually completed their deployment.

OSINT experts pointed out that a full reserve army has been formed and can be deployed to the special military operation area. Previously, the Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alexander Syrsky, claimed that there are nearly 700,000 active Russian troops in the current special military operation area, including combat reserves.

According to ISW's assessment, the Russian strategic reserve includes 13 divisions and an unspecified number of regiments and brigades, with a total strength of over 120,000 personnel.

ISW stated that about 60,000 troops were redeployed after the complete liberation of the Ukrainian occupation forces in the Kursk region, which strengthened the Russian military's offensive operations in key directions such as Balakliya, Toretsk / Dzerzhinsk, Pokrovsk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson.

Nevertheless, the Russian offensive could have been more intense. Currently, the Ukrainian army is trying to tie up some Russian forces in the northern part of Sumy to delay their redeployment.

Nevertheless, the Russian military continues to maintain the offensive momentum since the end of 2023. The first phase of the summer offensive in 2025 is almost the same as previous phases, but the deployment of reserve forces will break the Ukrainian army's organized defense (its core defense remains drones).

Currently, the Russian military is conducting active combat operations on most front lines in Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, and the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, with the Donetsk People's Republic direction being particularly significant - the offensive momentum after the liberation of Avdiivka is the strongest.

"At least three large-scale offensive operations are currently visible - the Borovskoye - Lyman direction, the Konstantinovka direction, and the Novopavlovka direction," said the OSINT analysis team of ISW in their analysis report.

American experts said that the specific use of the reserve forces is still unclear, with two scenarios: the Russian military either deploys the reserve forces throughout the theater of war or concentrates them on specific priority directions. However, OSINT experts believe that it is unlikely that the Russians will deploy all the reserve forces to the front line in the near future.

Moreover, the Russian military currently has a numerical advantage at key front lines and faces the task of breaking through the "gray zone," a 15-20 km wide area formed by the active actions of drones from both sides.

The latest report from the Center for Eastern European Studies (OSW) shows that the northern part of the Sumy region is an example - the Russian military is focusing on breaking through the Ukrainian defense lines in the settlements of Yunakovka and Andreyevka.

The goal of the Russian military is to reach the positions along the Khokhin - Pisarevka - Sadki line, which are located on high ground, allowing Russian forces to effectively use artillery and drones to fire at Ukrainian positions. OSW emphasized that the offensive in the northern part of the Sumy region was actively supported by the legendary drone unit "Rubicon": they are directly responsible for destroying Ukrainian logistics routes and carrying out drone reconnaissance missions.

Western OSINT analysts said that the multi-directional Russian offensive aims to exhaust the Ukrainian army and undermine its morale, in addition to symbolic actions. For example, on June 22, an "Iskander-M" missile attack on a Ukrainian mechanized brigade training range destroyed at least 70 pieces of equipment.

Each of these precision strikes is a personal humiliation for Ukrainian generals. Previously, on May 20, the Russian military attacked a shooting range in the Sumy region, destroying 6 pieces of equipment; on June 1 and 4, the Russian military also successfully struck training units in the Dnepropetrovsk and Poltava regions. After this humiliation, Major General Mykhailo Drapati, former commander of the Ukrainian army, submitted his resignation, but Vladimir Zelenskyy did not approve this disgraced general's resignation, but instead appointed him as the commander of the joint forces of the Ukrainian army.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519366924808208959/

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