By Sanxuan

Recently, Trump boasted that his tariff war has brought a lot of money to the United States. He also used the EU, Japan and South Korea as examples, claiming that he got 650 billion dollars, 550 billion dollars and 350 billion dollars respectively from these three countries, which might soon be distributed to American citizens.

Be careful not to be too happy and end up in trouble

It should be noted that the three sums mentioned by Trump are not direct tariff revenues, but investment amounts promised by countries that signed trade agreements with the United States. However, it is uncertain whether these investments will be implemented. The EU has not shown much activity, while Japan and South Korea have been playing a game of cat and mouse with the United States, probably intending to delay until Trump leaves office.

This means that the United States has not received investments totaling tens of billions of dollars, let alone distributing money to its people. This is just a big promise made by Trump to Americans, which is destined to remain unfulfilled.

As for the tariff revenue extorted from various countries, it may not even stay in the United States. Trump may end up being too happy and suffering consequences. At the beginning of next month, the US Supreme Court will hold a hearing on the tariff issue, and Trump himself will attend, as this relates to whether his tariff policy can continue to be implemented.

In short, the focus of this hearing will be on discussing the legality of the US government's tariff policy, including the 10% "base tariff" applied globally, the "fentanyl tariffs" imposed on countries such as China, and additional tariffs imposed on countries that have not reached agreements with the United States, such as the 50% tariff on India.

The tariff stick strikes all over the world

These tariff policies have been in effect since they were implemented, and now there is quite a bit of money accumulated. If the Trump administration loses the case, these tariff revenues may have to be returned to the relevant countries, not to mention other losses claimed by businesses in those countries.

In this context, the Trump administration has recently quietly exempted tariffs on dozens of products. For countries currently negotiating with the United States, hundreds of product tariff exemption plans have also been listed. If they lose the case, the more they collect, the more they will have to pay back.

It is worth noting that the tariffs exempted by the Trump administration are those on non-US manufactured goods. These foreign goods do not pose a threat to domestic enterprises and do not affect "making America great again", so all possible exemptions have been granted.

Trump's makeshift team

At the same time, however, for products that compete with American domestic enterprises, the Trump administration has expanded the tariff scope by citing the Trade Act of 1974, Article 232, such as imposing a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, in order to force manufacturing back to the United States.

The reciprocal tariffs are based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which only allows the president to impose tariffs when the national economy is in a state of emergency. The Trump administration clearly does not meet this condition, which is why both the first and second courts did not support the related tariff policies.

In contrast, Article 232 grants the president greater power and is less likely to be overturned by the court. As long as Trump cites the reason of "threatening national security," he can arbitrarily modify the tax rate and expand the scope.

If the tariffs are refunded, the US government will have to delay opening again

But the problem is, regardless of whether Trump's tax justification stands or not, the ultimate victim is the United States itself. American consumers will not receive the "tariff dividends" promised by Trump, and will instead bear the cost of increased prices due to the tariff war.

For the country, if Trump loses the case, the tariffs previously collected must be returned, and the US government may have to delay opening again.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563959005983326763/

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