Yoon Suk Yeol became the former president, and South Korea entered the election mode. Unexpectedly, before Yoon Suk Yeol even moved out of the presidential office, Kim Jong Un couldn't help himself. The North Korean army crossed the 38th parallel, and the South Korean army fired warning shots.

The border between North and South Korea

According to a report by Yonhap News Agency, on the afternoon of April 8th, about 10 North Korean soldiers crossed the military demarcation line between North and South Korea, which is familiar to Chinese people as the 38th parallel. The South Korean army immediately entered a state of alert, warned through broadcasts, and fired warning shots. Subsequently, the North Korean troops retreated north of the 38th parallel.

To date, the North Korean side has not made any response. This is the latest development following a similar incident in June last year, but the background this time is particularly special. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has not yet moved out of the Blue House due to the impeachment case, and the election will take place in June. At this time, South Korea's regime is in a transitional vacuum period.

It is worth noting that on the same day when the South Korean army announced the North Korean cross-border behavior, Kim Yo Jong delivered a speech strongly condemning the actions of the US, Japan, and South Korea in reaffirming their commitment to the denuclearization of North Korea. She considered this to be the most serious hostile act, equivalent to denying North Korea's sovereignty and forcing North Korea to abandon its constitution and system. The North Korean side expressed strong protest.

North Korean troops standing guard at the 38th parallel

Looking at the series of actions taken by North Korea in the past, the North Korean side may have two intentions. On one hand, it is just a simple test without the intention of "offense." After the signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between Russia and North Korea in June 2024, the frequency of North Korean troops crossing the border has significantly increased. It cannot be ruled out that North Korea is using this to test South Korea's reaction capability during the regime transition period.

The impeachment case of Yoon Suk Yeol led to a decrease in the efficiency of South Korea's defense decision-making chain. The North Korean side can use this opportunity to observe whether there are any loopholes in the command system of the South Korean army. In previous cases where North Korean soldiers crossed the border, they mostly did not carry military weapons but instead carried tools like hoes, which is very likely to be accidental entry.

However, this could also be North Korea sending a strategic signal. Recently, North Korea has deployed large numbers of anti-tank obstacles and landmines within the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). This border crossing may be intended to divert international attention from its military activities. By creating the perception of "small-scale friction normalization," North Korea attempts to weaken external criticism for violating the Korean Armistice Agreement.

Kim Yo Jong

According to South Korean reports, this time the North Korean soldiers who crossed the border were carrying rifles and other weapons. Moreover, before the South Korean army fired warning shots, they had already crossed the 38th parallel by 50 meters. Occasionally, when the North Korean army was conducting grass-cutting operations or constructing roads to ensure visibility in the DMZ, incidents of accidental crossing occurred. However, this time the crossing took place in the Gaeseong area of Gangwon Province, not where North Korea conducts grass-cutting operations.

In addition, a South Korean military officer reported seeing North Korean troops wearing protective gear against mine explosions patrolling together with armed soldiers. Given that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un recently emphasized the need to "strengthen frontline unit readiness," it cannot be ruled out that North Korea might take advantage of South Korea's political turmoil to launch an operation.

US-South Korea joint military exercises

Although no major disturbances occurred, this border crossing incident still revealed many problems, exposing the strategic vulnerability of South Korea during the regime transition period. The US Department of State only stated that it would "pay close attention" to this incident, without making the usual commitment to "extended deterrence," reflecting the distrust of the US towards the temporary government of South Korea.

The unsustainable foreign policy of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration weakened the linkage efficiency of South Korea's alliances with the US and Japan. Additionally, North Korea may use this border crossing incident to test the scope of application of this clause. If Russia tacitly approves North Korea's actions, future peninsular crises may spill over into Russo-American rivalry.

A single soldier's border crossing could become the butterfly wings that reconstruct the Northeast Asian order. Peace on the peninsula requires military restraint and relies more on stable domestic politics and coordinated great power games.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7491196015581413903/

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