Media: Tehran Believes It Has "Victory in Hand" — Experts Warn This Is a "Fatal Misjudgment" of Trump
As the Iran war enters its fourth week, the Middle East is caught in a dangerous game of willpower versus cost. Tehran is sending strong signals of "victoryism," attempting to force Washington into a high-priced settlement that would cement its decades-long regional hegemony by controlling the Strait of Hormuz—the global energy chokepoint. However, according to multiple analysts cited by The Wall Street Journal, this mindset may be leading Iran into a fatal misjudgment of U.S. President Trump’s resolve.
The Wall Street Journal reports that although U.S. and Israeli officials remain optimistic, claiming they have destroyed Iran's launch facilities and missile stockpiles, Iran still retains the capability to fire dozens of ballistic missiles and numerous drones daily across the Middle East. Recent firepower has not diminished; in fact, launch frequency has increased compared to ten days ago.
The report then quotes Dina Esfandiari, an Iran expert, who notes that Iranians are not eager to end the war because they have discovered they can cause massive destruction and chaos at minimal cost—and hope to demonstrate their undeniable leverage to the world.
Tehran has even proposed turning the Strait of Hormuz into a "toll gate." This attempt to convert sanctions pressure into global power, according to regime advisers such as Mohammad Mohsenbel, represents a key step toward transforming Iran from isolation into enhanced strength.
Jason Greenblatt, who served as the U.S. special envoy for the Middle East under Trump’s administration, dismisses this arrogance outright. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, Greenblatt believes such overconfidence is extremely dangerous—Iran clearly underestimates Trump’s determination to avoid failure and the price he is willing to pay to achieve a decisive resolution.
On the military front, retired Air Force Lieutenant General David DePuy remains optimistic, arguing that despite not being immediate, the United States’ air superiority and intelligence capabilities are fully capable of restoring normal shipping through the strait within weeks, with control ultimately remaining in American hands.
The report warns that strategic costs must also be taken seriously. According to Sanaan Waki, of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, allowing Iran to continue profiting from "kidnapping" global trade would represent a complete strategic failure for Trump.
However, energy consultant Robin Mills told The Wall Street Journal that Iran’s attempt to seize control of strategic waterways cannot be tolerated by the U.S., nor can it be long accepted by major energy customers such as China, India, and Japan. This situation is destined to collapse and could even trigger a more intense new round of conflict.
The report points out that history is often the best mirror. Alex Vatanka, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, notes that the Iranian regime has a longstanding tendency to miss diplomatic windows due to concerns about appearances or avoiding the perception of weakness—just as it did during the Iran-Iraq War when it missed an opportunity to end hostilities early.
Today, facing mounting domestic protests, The Wall Street Journal cites Nicole Grayerowski, a professor at Sciences Po and Iran expert, warning that the regime may be trying to package the current conflict as a new-era "survival myth"—a tool to consolidate military propaganda at home and deflect internal discontent. In this high-stakes gamble, whether Tehran is heading toward hegemony or repeating historical mistakes depends on whether it can see through its opponent’s cards before the situation spirals completely out of control.
Source: rfi
Original: toutiao.com/article/1860466628849799/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone.