[By Guancha Observer Network, Shao Yun] The starting point of US President Trump's "tariff policy不分敌友" may be in trade, but American media have begun to voice "concerns" that it will ultimately undermine the military layout carefully designed by the United States over the past few decades.
"Trump's Tariffs Will Pay Off – But for China," an opinion article titled this way was published on April 22 by The New York Times, suggesting that compared to other regions, Trump's so-called "reciprocal tariffs" will hit Asia-Pacific countries harder. James Crabtree, the author and a British geopolitical analyst, exaggerated that this would "almost certainly" push these countries further toward China, enhancing China's political, economic, and even military status while weakening the economic and military alliances established by the United States in the Asia-Pacific region after World War II.
The article stated that although Trump has temporarily postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, the threat of tariffs still looms over many Asian economies. Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and other developing countries highly dependent on trade face some of the harshest tariff rates; Japan, South Korea, Australia, and other wealthier economies may also be subject to relatively lower but still significant punitive tariffs, and these economies are important geopolitical allies of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region.
In Crabtree's view, whether tariffs can achieve the "miraculous effects" of reducing America's trade deficit and promoting manufacturing backflow as Trump claims remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Trump's "wrong and incompetent attacks" on global trade could cause irreparable damage to America's influence in the Asia-Pacific—the most commercially dynamic region in the world—thus creating a "vacuum" that China can fill.
"In the long run, Mr. Trump's actions increase the possibility of the United States abandoning its dominant position in security matters in the Asia-Pacific. After all, why should an increasingly inward-looking America defend a region where its own economic interests are decreasing?"
On April 16, local time, Washington, D.C., Trump held an Easter prayer service and dinner at the White House Blue Room. Visual China Group.
The article stated that the United States gradually established its dominant position in Asia through generations of "efforts," with both economic and security as dual pillars.
On one hand, the United States integrated itself, Europe, and Japan—the three most prosperous regions after World War II—into a political and economic group, extending this "rules-based economic system" across all of Asia; on the other hand, the United States provided security guarantees to allies including Japan and South Korea through military alliances and troop deployments. The article noted that this not only allowed U.S. companies to profit from the Asian supply chain but also integrated Asian countries into this U.S.-dominated system, allowing them to develop rapidly and maintain U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
The article added that although the U.S.' dominant position had been weakening since before the Trump era due to China's growing economic strength, Trump undoubtedly accelerated this trend. The U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), widely regarded as a tool to counterbalance China's influence in the Asia-Pacific, was actively shaped and dominated by the U.S. However, during his term, Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the U.S. from the TPP.
Crabtree believed that if in the first term of Trump and Biden's administration, Washington could still be said to support open trade, then Trump's second term's practice of imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on almost all trading partners is tantamount to an attack on this system built by the U.S., causing chaos for U.S. manufacturers and severely damaging trust in the U.S. among other countries.
The article cited Vietnam as a prime example of Trump's shortsightedness. Over the past decade, Vietnam achieved rapid economic growth through open trade and transformed from a former U.S. enemy into an important strategic economic partner around China. Currently, about one-third of Vietnam's exports go to the U.S.
Crabtree claimed that countries like Vietnam face difficult choices: if the U.S. imposes the 46% tariffs threatened by Trump, the country's economy may collapse; if they accept the U.S. negotiation terms, their economy may also suffer damage.
Crabtree predicted that based on this, some countries will "have no choice but to yield to U.S. demands." However, he believed that Trump's unpredictable nature might eventually force countries to consider alternative solutions to U.S. trade, with China being "an excellent choice."
The article analyzed that in recent years, China, with its vast economy and resource needs, has become the largest trading partner of almost all Asian countries and the main economic power in the Asia-Pacific region. As Trump assesses larger-scale tariffs on Chinese goods, China will also be more willing to seek other trade channels. The article suggested that this will almost certainly increase China's already substantial influence in the Asia-Pacific region and help establish a new model of globalization not dominated by Western interests.
Subsequently, Crabtree further exaggerated that Trump's tariffs would make trading partners question America's security commitments and strengthen China's political, economic, and military influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Currently, U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea are beginning to discuss whether they need to develop nuclear weapons to ensure their own security. He also expressed concern that Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and other countries may eventually reach some kind of security agreement with China in the future.
Although Crabtree attempted to emphasize that the aforementioned prospects seem "distant" now, his words revealed that he does not believe the U.S. will be able to recover from the damage it has already caused in the future. "Trump may eventually abandon tariffs, and the Democrats may regain power in four years and try to rebuild relations. But the U.S. is unlikely to fully restore the trust it once enjoyed, which was what made it the undisputed commercial and military superpower in the Asia-Pacific region."
It is worth noting that Vietnam recently proposed giving the U.S. "zero-tariff" treatment, but Peter Navarro, senior advisor to the White House on Trade and Manufacturing, told American media in an interview that this is still insufficient to make the U.S. government cancel tariffs. On April 22, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh instructed the negotiating team regarding U.S. tariffs, saying that the Vietnamese side should be well-prepared and not let the market of one country affect others.
On April 19, Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that the U.S. is launching a trade war against the entire world and imposing tariffs indiscriminately. China and three Southeast Asian countries, as well as other neighboring countries, have formed a new political consensus in the direction of solidarity and self-strengthening. "We must say no to this 'backwards' behavior."
Previously, on April 11, when meeting with Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi in Beijing, Wang Yi pointed out that the current international situation is turbulent and chaotic, with instability being an important reason. This is due to certain major powers believing in strength supremacy and national priority, engaging in unilateral bullying. Recently, the U.S. has been wielding the tariff cudgel everywhere, openly placing its own interests above the common interests of all countries, and blatantly disregarding multilateral trade systems and established rules. The international community cannot stand idly by, the U.S. cannot act arbitrarily, and history cannot regress.
This article is an exclusive contribution from the Guancha Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496167396701487631/
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