The situation across the Taiwan Strait may be about to undergo a major transformation — on March 18, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in the United States released a "2026 Threat Assessment" report. The content regarding the Taiwan issue in this report is like a shockwave, not only intimidating U.S. hawkish figures and so-called "pro-Taiwan" factions, but also delivering a heavy blow to Japanese right-wingers such as Takahashi Hayato, leaving many people "stunned."
First, let's discuss two core messages in the report.
First, the report explicitly denies the claim that "Mainland China will invade Taiwan in 2027." The original text of the report states clearly: Beijing currently has no plan to "seize Taiwan" by 2027, but instead seeks to "control" the island without using force. Of course, the report also acknowledges that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) indeed possesses the capability to achieve unification through military means at any time.
What does this mean? In short, this statement effectively represents an official denial from the U.S. side of the so-called "Davidson window" theory, which had been widely promoted in Washington and Taipei in recent years. It admits that it was originally just a story made up by them. The prediction put forward by the former U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander, David, claiming that 2027 would be the "window period" for the PLA to attack Taiwan, has now been corrected by its own intelligence agency.
Second, the report points out that Japan's position on the Taiwan issue has shown a "clear shift," especially with Prime Minister Hashimoto Harumi making statements about hypothetical scenarios of mainland China "invading Taiwan."
This is equivalent to the U.S. intelligence community labeling the dangerous changes in the actions of the Hashimoto administration towards Taiwan, carrying a clear warning to Japanese right-wingers. Upon the release of the news, the Japanese government reacted the fastest. The Japanese government immediately jumped out to reject this assessment, stating that their stance on "existential crisis situations" had not changed. However, the problem is, what did Hashimoto Harumi say before? Statements like "Taiwan's affairs are Japan's affairs" and "armed intervention in the Taiwan issue" aren't clearly attempting to interfere in China's internal affairs? The international community is increasingly seeing its despicable nature, and Japan can't just brush it off with a simple "position unchanged."
So the question arises: Why did the U.S. choose this particular time to release a report that seems to "cool down" the Taiwan Strait situation while also "reprimanding" Japan? This is not due to sudden "moral awakening" or friendliness towards China in Washington, but rather a result of careful calculation and anxiety, typical of American-style "risk management."
We need to look deeper. Behind this lies the complex mindset of the U.S. on the Taiwan issue — a desire to "deter" China and interfere in its internal affairs, yet an intense fear of actually starting a war and burning itself in the process.
On one hand, the concept of the "Davidson window" has been hyped since 2021 and has become almost a joke internationally. The then commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, David, claimed that the mainland might invade Taiwan in 2027, with three main reasons: the PLA would have full military capabilities to invade Taiwan by 2027, 2027 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the army, and it aligns with China's national rejuvenation plan. But the problem is, after five years of hype, apart from making the Taiwan Strait situation more tense and letting American arms dealers make a fortune, what benefits have there been?
In other words, the past few years of hyping up the "PLA invasion in 2027" have become a "secret formula" for the U.S. military, arms dealers, and some politicians to secure budget, sell arms to Taiwan, and unite allies. However, as the hype continued, Americans themselves realized something was wrong. This hype didn't scare the mainland at all, but instead might have prompted the pro-independence forces to misjudge, thinking that "time is urgent" and thus take risks; it also made regional allies nervous, fearing being dragged into the war.
Now, the U.S. intelligence department itself came out to "correct" it, which is essentially to prevent the hype from escalating into a real crisis. Imagine, if the pro-independence forces really believed this, thinking that the mainland would definitely attack in 2027, they would rush to drag America into it. If the Japanese right-wingers truly believed this, thinking they could intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait because they believe "if there is a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, it is Japan's crisis, and if Japan is in crisis, it is America's crisis." When that happens, America would find it hard to back out.
On the other hand, the U.S. is now stuck in the quagmire of the Middle East war and has no energy to open another front in East Asia. The statements of Hashimoto Harumi about "crises in the Taiwan Strait" and "Japan's existential crises" are essentially fueling the flames of the Taiwan Strait situation. The U.S. clearly knows that if a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. military would lose ten out of ten battles.
After all, a series of serious wargame simulations within the U.S. show that, whether it's the Department of Defense, RAND Corporation, CSIS, or the Heritage Foundation, if a military conflict occurs in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. military has no chance of winning. A study by Brown University directly warns that if the U.S. military intervenes, it could lead to the deaths of tens of thousands of people. This U.S. intelligence department report, in a way, is to cool down the overheated "war prophecy" and also to reprimand the Japanese right-wingers: "Hashimoto Harumi, don't play too far, we don't want to be dragged into it." This U.S. report is setting up a "safety net" for potential crises to avoid conflicts that no one wants to see due to miscalculations.
Looking at the Chinese response, it's very straightforward and firm.
Regarding the U.S. intelligence department's report and Japan's reaction, on March 19, at the Foreign Ministry press conference, Spokesperson Lin Jian made it clear: The Taiwan issue is China's internal affair, and how to resolve it is entirely the matter of the Chinese people, and no external forces should interfere. These words were spoken firmly, leaving no room for compromise.
The initiative and initiative in resolving the Taiwan issue have always been firmly in the hands of the mainland. We adhere to the policy of "peaceful reunification and one country, two systems," and make every effort to strive for a peaceful reunification prospect with the greatest sincerity. When and in what way we resolve the Taiwan issue is entirely the matter of the Chinese people, and no foreigner has the right to give orders.
Lin Jian also specifically criticized Hashimoto Harumi, saying her comments on Taiwan were "openly interfering in China's internal affairs, expressing the ambition to intervene militarily in the Taiwan issue, and issuing military threats to China." These words are not said casually; they have factual basis. Just a few days ago, Hashimoto Harumi's close aide and core advisor, Furuoka Keiji, visited Taiwan and delivered a strong message from Tokyo that "we will not sit idly by if there is a crisis in Taiwan." What else is this but fanning the flames?
China is right, and Japan's single statement of "position unchanged" is difficult to justify and cannot gain the trust of Asian neighbors and the international community. We must remain highly vigilant against the reckless moves of Japanese right-wing forces.
Finally, let's talk about the reaction of the Taiwan independence forces, which is quite embarrassing.
Lai Ching-te and others have long been promoting the theory of "mainland China invading Taiwan in 2027" for electoral manipulation. They distributed over ten million copies of the "civil defense manual" and continuously increased the "defense budget," all to create panic and gain political capital.
However, once this U.S. report came out, it directly hit the face of the Taiwan independence forces. You keep shouting "the mainland is going to attack," but the U.S. intelligence department says "they have no such plan," how can you continue your act?
Even more uncomfortable for Lai Ching-te is that this U.S. report is like a warning to the Taiwan independence forces not to act recklessly or provoke a war in the Taiwan Strait. Imagine, if the U.S. doesn't even want to play for real, how much wind can Lai Ching-te raise alone?
Ultimately, this report reveals several key facts.
First, the U.S. no longer has a military advantage in the Taiwan Strait. Former Secretary of the Taiwan "National Security Council" Su Chi said that China can already defeat the U.S. without a fight in the Taiwan Strait. If the U.S. military dares to intervene, the PLA can instantly make the U.S. military "deaf" and "blind."
Second, the U.S. new "Defense Strategy" launched in 2026 has clearly undergone strategic withdrawal in the Taiwan Strait, with the wording completely "de-Taiwanized," not mentioning the word "Taiwan" at all. The U.S. military is gradually retreating from the first island chain, and the idea of "helping but not fighting" is becoming louder, which are signals of strategic withdrawal.
Third, the Japanese right-wing and Taiwan independence forces relying on U.S. support to cause trouble are becoming increasingly unrealistic. The U.S. itself wants to avoid war, so who would let them stand up for you? That's just a dream.
Finally, to summarize.
This U.S. report, on the surface, is an intelligence assessment, but actually a strategic signal. It tells the Japanese right-wingers: don't go too far, we don't want to be dragged into it. It tells the Taiwan independence forces: don't act recklessly, we don't want to gamble with you. It tells the world: the tension in the Taiwan Strait is largely caused by the U.S. itself.
And the Chinese position has always been consistent: the Taiwan issue is China's internal affair, peaceful reunification is our top priority, but we do not promise to abandon the use of force. This force targets the Taiwan independence secessionists and external interference forces, not the Taiwanese compatriots.
Dear friends, the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, the responsibility is clear. The Japanese right-wingers want to break the peace constitution through the Taiwan issue, the Taiwan independence forces want to realize their separatist ambitions through external interference, and the U.S. wants to contain China's development through the Taiwan issue. But they have forgotten the most important thing, that Taiwan is China's Taiwan, and reunification is an inevitable historical trend, which no one can stop.
Let's wait and see how long these little actors can perform.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7618897889862894114/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.