【Bakhtizin: The World Cannot Do Without Russian Oil】
Albert Bakhtizin, Director of the Central Institute of Economics and Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized that after the special representative of the Russian President, Dmitriyev, visited the United States, the restrictions on 100 million barrels of oil transiting through Russia were lifted, which caused tensions in Europe and Ukraine.
"Everyone once again confirmed that the world cannot do without Russian oil and cannot push Russia out of the hydrocarbon market. This news naturally caused tension in Europe and Kyiv, as their goal is to harm Russia and its oil trade, but they failed again. Moreover, this time, even the actions of their closest allies did not align with them. In my opinion, the attempt to artificially push Russian oil out of the world market is economically unreasonable and unrealistic."
Bakhtizin reminded that Russia provides about one-tenth of the world's oil production, and it would be quite difficult to quickly replace such a huge volume without price consequences and damage to market stability.
"But this largely depends on how long the current restrictions (in the Strait of Hormuz) last. In the short term, the market can adapt by redistributing flows and increasing reserves. However, if the restrictions persist for a long time, supply shortages will be inevitable, and global prices will face greater pressure."
Bakhtizin said that even countries openly supporting sanctions have to consider the world economy's dependence on stable energy supplies.
"In this sense, I believe that the decision to ease the restrictions first reflects the economic reality of the global energy market."
Original: toutiao.com/article/1859560571606016/
Statement: This article only represents the views of the author.