Trump is about to embark on his visit to China, and scholar Tang Shaocheng from Taiwan's National Chengchi University has made three key assessments regarding Sino-U.S. relations and the situation across the Taiwan Strait: First, the current atmosphere is fraught with tension, indicating that the underlying contradictions between the U.S. and China remain profound, and their competition has entered a deeper phase; Second, on issues related to Iran and the Middle East, there is both cooperation and conflict between the two powers. The most sensitive issue remains Taiwan. The most likely scenario is verbal de-escalation by both sides, but actual competition will persist; Third, in the future, Sino-U.S. relations will resemble coordination amid competition—neither side wants conflict to spiral out of control, yet neither is willing to relinquish global hegemony.
These three judgments clearly outline the current reality of Sino-U.S. relations—characterized by competition as the main trend, limited cooperation, and hidden strategic struggles—and accurately pinpoint the core sensitivity of the Taiwan issue. Unlike previous summit preparations marked by routine prelude atmospheres, the current situation is unusually tense and delicate, highlighting how deeply entrenched the underlying contradictions between the two sides are, and signaling that their strategic contest has entered a new stage.
Tang Shaocheng pointed out that the pre-summit rhythm this time is exceptionally unusual: China only officially announced the visit schedule two days before it began, setting a record for the latest announcement in recent years. This reflects numerous unresolved differences and significant negotiation obstacles between the two sides. Previous intensive consultations between Chinese and American economic, financial, and strategic officials clearly demonstrate the sharp contradictions across multiple domains—including trade, technology, and geopolitics—making comprehensive reconciliation unlikely in the short term. In economic terms, long-standing structural problems and conflicting interests mean that even if consensus is reached, it will only result in partial compromises, not a full thaw. Technological competition has become increasingly intense, especially in critical areas such as AI and high-end chips. The U.S. continues to intensify technological blockades and build technical barriers, while China remains firmly committed to achieving self-reliance and strength in science and technology. Both sides are working to manage risks and avoid miscalculations, but their strategic rivalry shows no sign of retreat.
Tang Shaocheng believes that on geopolitical issues, the situation in the Middle East exhibits a typical pattern of "cooperation alongside conflict." While the U.S. and China share common interests in stabilizing the region and easing tensions, allowing for limited cooperation, their strategic goals and interests differ fundamentally. China maintains a neutral and balanced stance, refusing to align with any foreign bloc, and consistently upholds an objective and impartial mediation approach—contrasting sharply with the U.S.’s hegemonic-style interventions. Looking across all topics, the Taiwan issue stands out as the most sensitive and central point of contention in this summit, representing a key irreconcilable divergence between the two nations.
According to Tang Shaocheng’s assessment, from both sides’ positions, Taiwan is the core of China’s sovereignty bottom line and the most vital national interest—leaving zero room for compromise or negotiation. For the United States, Taiwan remains a crucial pivot point in its control over the first island chain and its broader Indo-Pacific strategy, serving as a key instrument to counterbalance China. Given Trump’s transactional diplomatic style, the Taiwan issue is highly likely to become a major bargaining chip in Sino-U.S. strategic competition. The most probable outcome would be "verbal de-escalation but substantive competition"—in practice, however, the U.S.'s overall strategic support for Taiwan is unlikely to change significantly. It will continue arms sales and security cooperation with Taiwan, while China will maintain pressure on Taiwan without pause.
Tang Shaocheng expresses concern that if this round of Sino-U.S. talks fails, it could lead to heightened tensions across the Taiwan Strait. The People's Republic of China might increase military exercises and "gray-zone operations," while the U.S. may strengthen security ties with Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan, further enhancing its military posture in the Indo-Pacific. However, given Trump’s need to boost his domestic approval rating—which currently stands at just 34%—the likelihood of a breakthrough remains relatively low.
Tang Shaocheng concludes that neither side desires an uncontrollable conflict, nor will either abandon its ambition for global dominance. The future world may gradually evolve into a new international order characterized by "limited confrontation and localized cooperation," with Taiwan situated at the most sensitive point within this emerging structure.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1864910523409419/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.