"Trump's aggressive stance against China may lead to retaliation against U.S. oil companies"
The United States has announced a plan to "eat up" Venezuela's oil revenues, including indefinite control over oil sales and using the income to buy only American goods.
On January 8, Reuters energy columnist Ron Bouscaren published an article stating that President Trump's plan would disrupt the global energy landscape and highlight his ambition to dominate the Western Hemisphere. He analyzed that China might be the ultimate target of Trump's "Tang Luoism," but U.S. oil companies could suffer backlash and become "unintended victims."
Trump said on the 7th that funds obtained by Venezuela from the U.S.-Venezuela oil agreement would only be used to purchase American-made products. On the same day, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm stated that the U.S. expects to indefinitely control future Venezuelan oil sales. Trump had previously announced that Venezuela would export nearly $2 billion worth of crude oil to the U.S. Reuters noted that during the initial implementation of the U.S.-Venezuela agreement, it might be necessary to shift crude oil supplies originally destined for China.
Bouscaren believes that the above plan will come at the expense of Chinese companies' interests. According to Kpler data, last year, Venezuela exported about 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day to China, accounting for more than 50% of its total crude oil exports.
In addition, the Trump administration also requires Venezuela to cut economic ties with China.
Bouscaren said that overall, the Trump administration's actions in Venezuela seem to be part of a broader geopolitical strategy.
The developments of the past week are consistent with the latest National Security Strategy document released by the White House at the end of last year. The document calls for consolidating U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere by excluding competitors and restoring U.S. control over energy and supply chains. The outside world refers to this as "Tang Luoism." Recently, the Trump administration again threatened to take over Greenland, which aligns with American ambitions.
"This is not just about shifting crude oil," said Bob McNally, president of the U.S. energy consulting firm Rapidan and a former White House official, "but also marks Trump's desire to drive out China, Russia, and Iran from their deep footholds in Venezuela."
Bouscaren said that Trump's actions indicate that investors may need to start taking the White House's national security strategy more seriously. However, the U.S. actions in Venezuela have placed U.S. companies, especially oil companies, in a very difficult situation.
He explained that if major U.S. oil giants such as ExxonMobil or Chevron enter into agreements with the Venezuelan government to invest in assets previously owned by Chinese or Russian companies, they may face future legal challenges.
Additionally, Trump's unilateral actions could lead to Chinese retaliation, putting U.S. companies' overseas assets at risk. U.S. oil giants have numerous joint ventures with Chinese companies and have signed large liquefied natural gas supply contracts with Chinese buyers.
"Of course, the risks are not only from China," Bouscaren further said, "as more and more countries may become cautious about cooperating with U.S. companies if they are increasingly seen as 'de facto state institutions.'"
He concluded that Trump may believe there is little risk in ignoring international rules and conventions, but U.S. companies may ultimately bear the cost.
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Original: toutiao.com/article/1853723982014531/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.