British media: Why are China's two consecutive failed rocket recovery attempts considered "partial successes"?

China successfully launched two reusable launch vehicles within a month in December 2025, but both attempts at rocket recovery failed.

At the end of 2025, China conducted two test launches of recoverable rockets, with both rockets reaching orbit but failing to complete recovery.

However, official Xinhua News stated that the "Long March 12A" and "Zhuzhu 3" tests were "basically successful," and some media described it as "of great significance."

Currently, Elon Musk's SpaceX is the only company globally that has successfully commercialized reusable rockets. As Chinese companies attempt to catch up, Europe and Japan are also conducting similar research.

Scientists told BBC Chinese that, based on SpaceX's development process, China's two failed recovery attempts can be considered as partial successes.

State Media Calls It "Basic Success"

The Long March 12A rocket comes from a long-established state-owned enterprise.

According to Xinhua News, on December 3, the Zhuzhu 3 Yaoyi launch vehicle was launched from the Dongfeng Commercial Aerospace Innovation Experimental Area at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Gansu. On the 23rd, the Long March 12A Yaoyi launch vehicle was also launched from the same experimental area.

Zhuzhu 3 is 66.1 meters tall and was developed by the Beijing private enterprise Blue Origin (LandSpace), which just celebrated its tenth anniversary and is currently in the process of applying for an IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The Long March 12A is 70.4 meters tall and was developed by the central-level state-owned enterprise China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, which originated from the Fifth Academy of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense established in 1956 and has undergone multiple reforms over the years.

In both test flights, Xinhua stated that "the second stage of the launch vehicle entered the designated orbit, while the first stage failed to successfully recover, and the flight test mission was basically successful."

"Second stage" and "first stage" refer to the second and first stages of the launch vehicle. After launch, the first stage, located at the bottom, detaches first.

Reusable Rocket Structure: An Example Using SpaceX Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon

Dr. Wei Shixing, a member of the Advanced Rocket Research Center at National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University in Taiwan, told BBC Chinese: "It is quite normal not to fully achieve the design test objectives during the technological development process. If the main test objective is to collect key test data, it can certainly be considered a success. A classic example is SpaceX itself."

Dr. Maggie Lieu, a researcher at the School of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Nottingham, also agreed that these two tests could be considered "partial successes."

Dr. Lieu told BBC Chinese: "Although neither of them managed to recover the first stage of the reusable rocket, they successfully reached orbit, which is not something most first-time launches achieve."

She pointed out that from SpaceX to Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, and even to Isar Aerospace in Germany, which had a rocket explosion in March this year, all show that space launches are "extremely difficult."

Dr. Wei said that the current situation shows that the United States still has a significant technological lead, which will be difficult to surpass in the short term.

SatNews, based in Sonoma, California, USA, stated that currently, China is about ten years behind the US in reusable rocket technology.

SatNews noted that SpaceX's Falcon 9 achieved its first successful recovery in December 2015; Blue Origin successfully landed the New Glenn rocket in its second test in November this year. Both have further solidified the US's relative advantage.

In November 2025, Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket successfully landed after takeoff.

In September this year, the first stage of Falcon 9 achieved its 500th landing; on November 16, the same first stage booster launched again.

However, according to SpaceNews, Dr. Martin Sippel, head of the launch systems analysis group at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), said that the two test flights in Jiuquan still represent significant progress for China in achieving rocket reusability.

Dr. Sippel said: "The distance to the designated landing point was very close. The stage seemed to remain intact before entering the low supersonic phase, which is undoubtedly a progress."

Before the test flights of the Long March 12A and Zhuzhu 3, Musk himself publicly commented on these two Chinese reusable rockets.

Musk posted on his social media platform X in October, in response to a video about these two rockets: "They added Starship elements, such as stainless steel and methane oxygen, to the Falcon 9 architecture, which would give them the capability to surpass Falcon 9."

Starship is another reusable launch vehicle developed by SpaceX.

Musk continued: "But Starship belongs to another level."

What Caused the "Failure" in Rocket Recovery?

Blue Origin, headquartered in Beijing, uses Huzhou, Zhejiang as its rocket production and assembly base. This is the previous generation of Zhuzhu 2 rocket.

In the news release announcing the Long March 12A test flight, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation stated that for the failure to recover, "the specific cause is under further analysis and investigation."

The statement continued: "Although the mission did not achieve the planned goal of recovering the first stage of the rocket, it obtained key engineering data under real flight conditions, laying an important foundation for subsequent launches and reliable recovery of the stage."

"The research team will quickly conduct a comprehensive review of the test process and technical problem resolution, thoroughly investigate the fault causes, continuously optimize the recovery plan, and continue to advance the verification of reusability."

As for Zhuzhu 3, according to official CCTV reports, an "abnormal combustion" occurred during the recovery test, so "it did not achieve a soft landing at the landing site."

Dai Zheng, the general manager of the rocket R&D department at Blue Origin and the overall commander of the Zhuzhu 3 mission, gave an interview with CCTV after the test, further explaining the results of the test.

Dai Zheng said: "In fact, this launch should be the first time our country has conducted a recovery experiment for the first stage of an orbital-class launch vehicle. There was no initial expectation that the first flight must succeed in recovery. Rather, it was more of an experimental and exploratory approach."

Dai Zheng described the failure of the Zhuzhu 3 recovery test as "not braking well at the last moment."

Dai Zheng recounted the process of the recovery test.

"From 40 kilometers, it glided all the way down to 3 kilometers above the ground, supersonic entry, and the aerodynamic control glide segment performed very well. At 3 kilometers, there was a landing burn. This landing burn is similar to an emergency brake. When the height reaches zero, the speed should be almost zero, at which point the landing legs unfold to absorb the final impact, allowing the rocket to stand upright on the ground without damage. For the rocket's flight control, this is a very big challenge."

"The last brake was not applied properly, so the braking function was not achieved, and it can be considered that it crashed on the edge of the landing area."

Dr. Wei Shixing from National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University told BBC Chinese that the rocket system itself is "very complex" and needs to cope with extremely harsh flight environments, with many uncertain factors, and many key parameters need to be verified through flight testing.

Dr. Maggie Lieu from the University of Nottingham further explained that the rocket needs to be both strong and lightweight, able to withstand huge G-forces, heat, atmospheric friction, compression, and vibration, yet not too heavy to prevent it from launching into space.

"Now there is also the aspect of reusability. The rocket not only has to withstand these pressures during launch, but also repeatedly. Moreover, if the rocket is too light, it cannot effectively decelerate."

Blue Origin's official website states that the Zhuzhu 3 rocket uses high-strength stainless steel material, making it "China's first stainless steel liquid launch vehicle." The China Aerospace Administration has not officially introduced the materials used in the Long March 12A rocket, but some financial media report that it uses carbon fiber composite materials, while the official introduction of the Long March 12 mentions aluminum-lithium alloy.

After handling structure and weight, there is also the issue of operation. Dr. Lieu said: "Timing is crucial. Every step must be perfectly executed; even a one-second delay can determine success or failure. Automation is key."

Dr. Lieu said that these tests cannot rely on computer simulations and must be learned through practice, "so you can actually learn a lot from failure experiences."

Massive Industrial Prospects for Rocket Recovery

The Communist Party proposed accelerating the development of aerospace industries in the "14th Five-Year Plan."

The development of China's reusable rockets is behind a trillion-yuan-scale industry forming.

Guangzhou Southern Financial News reported that the proposal for the "14th Five-Year Plan" released in October called for accelerating the development of aerospace industries. The China National Space Administration then issued a two-year "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace," clearly incorporating commercial aerospace into the overall layout of national aerospace development.

Subsequently, according to reports, at least 20 aerospace funds have emerged in China, with a total scale exceeding 480 billion yuan (68.5 billion U.S. dollars), aiming to build a full industry chain aerospace cluster covering R&D, manufacturing, launch, operation, and application.

So what is the main role of reusable rockets in this context?

Dr. Martin Sippel from the German Aerospace Center told SpaceNews: "China plans to launch multiple large satellite constellations, and reusable launch vehicles may be the most effective way."

"They also want to demonstrate that China has advanced space transportation technology comparable to the U.S., which is clearly an important link."

Such space transportation technology is not limited to transporting cargo from Earth to space stations. Dr. Lieu explained that SpaceX hopes to operate ground-to-ground transport via the Starship rocket, such as from the UK to Australia, reducing the single trip from 24 hours for a civilian aircraft to 40 minutes.

California's SatNews noted that China is developing the State Grid Constellation and the Thousand Sails Constellation, two large satellite constellations that will collectively involve 26,000 artificial satellites. To launch such a massive number of satellites, reusable launch tools are "the only economically viable method."

Therefore, without developing rockets like the Long March 12A, China will find it difficult to rival SpaceX's Starship.

Jim Cantrell, one of the co-founders of SpaceX, later founded the aerospace company Phantom Space.

Cantrell commented on the Long March 12A test on X, saying: "This technology is extremely complex. Even with past rocket experience, replicating or building it is still challenging. However, China's possibility of achieving reusable rockets is already quite close."

"Once successful, China may accelerate the construction of large-scale space systems in orbit, posing a more aggressive challenge to the U.S. leadership in space."

Image caption: A Ukrainian soldier folds up a SpaceX Starlink satellite receiver in Kremena, Ukraine. Starlink provides internet connectivity through satellite constellations, and SpaceX controls the cost of launching hundreds of artificial satellites using reusable rockets.

Could reusable rockets be used in military applications? Dr. Wei Shixing from National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University said: "I think this technology significantly helps reduce the cost of launching satellites into orbit, and similarly can be applied to launching military satellites."

In fact, the U.S. military has raised concerns. Maj Gen Brian Sidari, Deputy Chief of Space Operations and Intelligence for the U.S. Space Force, said at a seminar in September: "My concern is that once China masters reusable launch technology, it can deploy more capabilities into orbit at a faster pace."

Maj Gen Sidari also believes that China's vigorous promotion of large satellite constellations is seeing how the U.S. has used them to support joint combat forces, and thus is beginning to imitate.

Dr. Maggie Lieu from the University of Nottingham pointed out that SpaceX Starlink has been applied in disaster relief, even in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and developing satellite constellations also helps improve the global positioning system (GPS).

"The direct combat use of reusable rockets is currently unknown, but it can be imagined that espionage and rapid transport are areas where the military might benefit."

But what worries Dr. Lieu more than the use of reusable rockets in the military is the increase in the number of artificial satellites.

"It is already very crowded now, and if a collision occurs, it could trigger a chain reaction, causing catastrophic consequences globally."

What Other Reusable Rocket Projects Are There Around the World?

Chinese media reported that in 2026, China will have more test launches of reusable launch vehicles.

At the closing ceremony of the Wenchang International Aerospace Forum on December 22, Guan Song, president of China Rocket Company of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, announced that after the Long March 12A, the Long March 10B rocket will be ready for its first flight in April.

According to the China Securities Daily, the Hyperbola 3 rocket of Beijing i-Space Group, the Tianlong 3 rocket developed by Jiangsu Tianning Technology, and the Zhishenxing 1 rocket of Beijing Galaxy Aerospace have all planned for their first flights in 2026.

In the U.S., after SpaceX and Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Relativity Space, and Stoke Space are also developing reusable rockets or rocket components.

Among them, Relativity Space developed the Terran 1, the world's first 3D-printed rocket, but it failed in a test in 2023.

Relativity Space released the Terran 1 in 2023, the world's first 3D-printed rocket.

Additionally, the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also advancing their own projects for reusable launch vehicles.

In June this year, Honda's affiliated company, Honda Technical Research Institute, announced that it successfully tested an experimental reusable rocket.

The Honda Research Institute said that this 6-meter-high rocket prototype reached an altitude of 300 meters, flew for one minute, and landed smoothly, deviating only 37 centimeters from the target landing point.

Source: BBC

Original: toutiao.com/article/7590597468262236714/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.