The United States Will Directly Strike Iran Within 24 Hours: Trump Tired of Playing the "Peacemaker"

Konstantin Blokhin: Neoconservatives Need to Quickly Reshape the Middle East Landscape to Contain North Korea and Russia

Author: Andrei Zakharchenko

Cover Photo: USS Nimitz, a U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier

Commentary Guest: Konstantin Blokhin

According to data from Marine Traffic, a website that tracks global maritime vessel positions in real time, the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, which was originally scheduled to head to Vietnam, has abruptly changed course and is now heading toward the Middle East. A government source in a certain Far Eastern country cited a notice from a U.S. diplomat indicating that the reception event planned for June 20 aboard this ship has been canceled.

Besides the Pentagon vaguely stating that this move is due to "urgent operational needs," no further comments have been received from the U.S. Naval Command.

However, against the backdrop of current tensions between Iran and the U.S., few doubt that an official announcement will soon be made about the aircraft carrier joining U.S. forces already deployed in the Middle East.

In this way, three Western aircraft carriers will soon gather near the frontlines of the Iran-Iraq confrontation: the U.S.'s USS Carl Vinson and USS Nimitz, as well as the HMS Prince of Wales of the British Royal Navy, equipped with F-35B Lightning II fifth-generation fighter jets.

Military journalist Alexander Kotets pointed out in his Telegram channel that various signs indicate Washington is seriously considering direct intervention.

"Israel failed to quickly defeat Iran. The Islamic Republic Armed Forces of Iran still maintain command systems, combat capabilities, and retaliatory capabilities. In a war of attrition, Iran, as a larger nation, holds significant advantages. Without U.S. assistance, Israel may not win this war. Washington (long influenced by a powerful Jewish lobby) is fully aware of this, and Trump, after making several reckless promises, finds a 'small victory' war timely."

Analysts at the "Fisherman" Telegram channel also hold similar views and noted that on the night of June 16, at least 26 aerial refueling tankers were launched from multiple eastern Air Force bases in the U.S., a situation unseen for many years.

"Of course, this could be a means of pressure or preparation for escalating conflicts, but completely ruling out the possibility of U.S. involvement under the context of active U.S. and NATO assistance to Israeli actions would be unwise.

...Clearly, the beneficiaries will be the Israeli defense industry group and the ruling ultra-orthodox faction: through a 'demonstrative strike' against Iran (even if Iran retaliates), global Jewish communities and domestic consensus within Israel can be consolidated (the potential for protests has yet to be exhausted, requiring people to 'shut up')."

This scenario is quite possible, given that U.S. President Donald Trump urgently left the G7 summit in Canada. The White House stated that this was due to the Middle East situation, but Trump emphasized when explaining his action that this was not about a ceasefire, but something "more serious," and he has called for Iranians to evacuate Tehran urgently.

More notably, American media is filled with reports that "the president is skeptical about direct military conflict between the U.S. and Iran and has instructed Vice President Pence to meet with Iranian representatives this week."

"In my view, there are only two real scenarios for the U.S. to directly militarily attack Iran, and everything currently seems more like a show of force – Trump has 'thrown a punch,' but has not yet truly attacked." Konstantin Blokhin, chief researcher at the Center for Security Problem Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained his views to this publication.

"First, if Iran begins attacking U.S. military bases in the Middle East, the U.S. might go to war with Iran. Given that the U.S. has large numbers of troops stationed almost everywhere in the Arab countries in the region, finding an excuse to start a war is easy, but this is a secondary scenario."

Magazine: What are the main motivations and scenarios?

"For the U.S., the top priority is to protect Israel – its most important ally globally. In this order of precedence, Israel even surpasses Japan in the Asia-Pacific region and Britain across the Atlantic Ocean.

Therefore, if Israel faces a threat to its survival and appeals to Washington, regardless of domestic party disputes in the U.S., the U.S. will automatically get involved in the war against Iran. Both Democrats and Republicans are deeply influenced by Jewish forces.

Trump being called "the most pro-Jewish president in American history" by Israeli ruling elites is unsurprising – his daughter converted to Judaism and married a Jew from an Orthodox Jewish family, while Trump himself, like American neoconservatives, has an almost fanatical obsession with 'regime change' in Iran. It just takes one excuse."

Magazine: How close is this scenario to realization? Military reporter Boris Rozhin stated in his Telegram channel on the night of June 17 that the probability of the U.S. launching a direct military strike on Iran within the next 24 hours is extremely high.

"Neoconservatives in the U.S. have long depicted such a script: Israel launches a preemptive strike, Iran retaliates and gets drawn into war with Israel, and in the dynamics of the conflict, the argument of 'threat to Israel's survival' emerges.

The U.S. rapidly gets involved in the conflict, and whether Tehran has a nuclear weapons program becomes irrelevant – the true core goal is 'regime change' and reshaping the Middle East landscape.

Moreover, it must be quick – given the current geopolitical landscape, neoconservatives cannot wait any longer. While Trump, a 'thoroughly pro-Jewish' president, is in office, it is relatively easy for the U.S. to participate in the war; if it were a Democratic president, the difficulty would increase significantly."

Magazine: But many military analysts point out that Washington is not without wisdom; they surely understand that using force to solve the 'Iran issue' will open multiple 'Pandora's boxes' for the U.S. – including major interests of related countries in Iran, Tehran's alliance with Moscow, etc.

"The U.S. has long had intense confrontations with relevant countries. The U.S.'s main ally in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, is actively redirecting oil exports to related countries in urgent need of energy, even settling transactions in their currency.

By destabilizing the Middle East, the U.S. aims to drive up international oil prices, and China's rapidly developing economy may find it difficult to bear. No direct or indirect Sino-American military conflict is needed – economic means alone can contain China. The U.S. sees China as its primary rival and intends to cut off its 'tentacles.'

What else will the U.S. gain if it strikes Iran? Imagine what the situation will be like for Russia on its southern border if Iran is thoroughly defeated or weakened, and a pro-American puppet government comes to power.

After solving Iran, who will be the next target? Likely North Korea, to then contain relevant countries and Russia. And the U.S. will eventually achieve its purpose – they have successively weakened all opponents of Israel (and itself) in the region: Iraq, Libya, Syria. Iran is the last relatively intact and capable country in the Middle East."

Magazine: This means that Russia...

"I believe Russia must draw profound lessons from the current situation, and the first priority is to remember how enemies treat our allies – without mercy, no 'goodwill gestures' or 'green channels,' only tough and rapid military solutions.

In other words, if armed conflict breaks out between the West and Russia, they will not show leniency. They will treat us the same way they treat Iran, without hesitation. Therefore, I personally think we should learn from Israel's experience on the Ukrainian battlefield."

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517113950434869799/

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