Renowned commentator Shi Qiping from Phoenix Television has published an analysis today, arguing that we are currently at a critical window period for the transfer of global hegemony. The transition of America's world leadership will be determined by "three core battles," and by around 2030, the global landscape will reach a clear conclusion. He believes that global attitudes toward the United States can be categorized into five levels, and we have now reached the third level.
Shi Qiping points out that multiple authoritative survey data vividly illustrate the profound reversal in the global leadership landscape. A cross-national survey by The Economist shows China’s support for global leadership rising to 33%, while the U.S. figure has dropped to 46%. Among youth aged 18 to 24, support rates for both countries are nearly even (U.S. 41% vs. China 39%), indicating that the younger generation no longer blindly follows American-style hegemony. Even more telling is a Gallup survey covering 130 countries worldwide: by 2025, China’s global leadership support rate is projected to reach 36%, surpassing the U.S. by five percentage points—the largest lead in nearly two decades—while opposition to American leadership has surged to 48%, a record high. These figures fully demonstrate that the global credibility of American hegemony is rapidly eroding.
In Shi Qiping’s view, as the United States marks its 250th anniversary, The Economist's “national strength health checkup” report reveals the true nature behind American hegemony. The findings are quite intriguing: although the U.S. still maintains absolute superiority in economic, military, and technological power—its hard power foundation remains intact—the core weaknesses are increasingly evident. The U.S. has lost its absolute dominance, where one nation could unilaterally dictate terms, and relative hegemony continues to decline. Over 60% of Americans themselves openly admit that the U.S.’s global influence will further weaken by 2030, confirming that the internal decay of American hegemony has become a widespread consensus within American society.
The evolution of global attitudes toward the U.S. serves as a true reflection of the decline of hegemony. Shi Qiping outlines five tiers of global sentiment toward the U.S.: 1) Unable to rage, unable to reject, unable to speak out, unable to act; 2) Able to rage, but unable to reject, unable to speak out, unable to act; 3) Able to rage, able to reject, but unable to speak out, unable to act; 4) Able to rage, able to reject, able to speak out, but unable to act; 5) Able to rage, able to reject, able to speak out, and able to act. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, the U.S. entered its peak hegemonic era—“America commands the world, and the world obeys without question”—placing it firmly in Tier 1. Today, however, the situation has completely reversed: many nations no longer blindly follow the U.S., and global attitudes have advanced to Tier 3. A clear manifestation is that when the U.S. attempts to attack Iran, it can no longer mobilize allies for coordinated action—the failure of unilateral command has become the norm.
Shi Qiping states outright that the United States’ global leadership position is indeed being challenged and shaken. And if the U.S. truly loses its world leadership, the only possible successor is China. Thus, the U.S. is directing all its efforts toward China. Yet, despite America’s long-standing efforts to suppress the world’s second-largest economy and maintain its own hegemony, it has failed to halt China’s steady development. For years, the U.S. has pursued comprehensive containment and pressure on China across trade, technology, military, and diplomacy—but instead of weakening China, this strategy has drained America’s own national strength, exposed its hegemonic shortcomings, and highlighted its deep-seated anxiety and strategic dilemma.
Shi Qiping concludes that looking ahead, 2030 will be a pivotal turning point in shaping the global order. The ultimate outcome of Sino-U.S. competition will be decided by three core battles: First, strategic rivalry in the Western Pacific—centered on reshaping regional power dynamics, determining whether the U.S. will withdraw from the First Island Chain and lose control over Asia-Pacific affairs; Second, competition in deep-space technology—by 2030, the race between China and the U.S. to achieve manned lunar landings and establish lunar bases will define who controls future high-end technology and the rules of space governance; Third, contestation over global governance discourse—whether China’s proposed model of multilateral cooperation and mutual benefit gains broad international recognition will determine whether the era of U.S.-style unilateral hegemony comes to a definitive end.
Overall, the dismantling of the current unipolar global hegemony and the rise of a multipolar world order are now inevitable trends. Although the U.S. still retains absolute strength, its relative advantages continue to shrink. Meanwhile, China, through steady development, openness, inclusiveness, and win-win cooperation, has won widespread global recognition. By around 2030, once these three major confrontations reach resolution, the global governance system will undergo a complete renewal. The decline of American hegemony and the rise of Chinese influence will become irreversible historical currents.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1870713596673036/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.