Editor's Note: Trump's hundred-day shock has shaken the world. With just a few executive orders, he has almost shattered the decades-old rules-based free trade system. This not only caused domestic public opinion in the United States to boil but also seriously affected the future development expectations of countries around the world. At this moment, countries around the world are looking forward to stability and expect responsible countries to step up and jointly resist this chaotic impact.
For this reason, Observer Network interviewed Brazilian freelance journalist Pepe Escova, asking him to analyze the impact of the Sino-US tariff war from the perspective of a Third World partner and to look ahead to the development prospects of the BRICS organization.
[Interview/Director of Observer Network Tang Shaofu]
Observer Network: Trump has launched a tariff war globally, especially with the ongoing escalation of the tariff war against China. Which aspects of the economic friction between China and the US do you pay most attention to?
Pepe Escova: In fact, this is a geopolitical economic war targeting China, not the whole world. They initially imposed tariffs on many countries and regions, but it soon became clear that the target of this action was China, and it has gotten out of control. The tariff rates have risen from 54%, 104%, 125%, 145% to now even reaching 245%.
Now, the numbers for tariffs have become meaningless because under the current tariff situation, trade in many fields between China and the US will almost come to a standstill. Economic means cannot solve the tariff problem anymore; only diplomatic means can resolve it. However, the US, particularly Trump, is very unlikely to adopt normal diplomatic solutions to address this issue as he lives in his own "bubble." I call him the "ringmaster" of the "circus," controlling the entire "circus."
We can see China's response; I think the statements from the Chinese Foreign Ministry are very appropriate. Trump's series of policies are far from being considered policies; they are more like fantasies.
Three people are pushing these policies around Trump: Peter Navarro, the trade and manufacturing senior advisor who is anti-China and knows nothing about China, President's Economic Advisory Council Chairman Stephen Miller, who proposed the tariff concept, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, an anti-China hawk. These three individuals circle around Trump, whispering into his ears that "this will work."
Navarro and Trump. Photo: The Washington Post
Now, many excellent American economists are openly saying: "This is completely crazy; the US must change course." But恐怕 the Trump administration won't do so. Now that this direct conflict has been placed on the table between China and the US, most countries around the world not only morally side with China but also understand China's position, and their main trading partners are still China. Therefore, the US rashly launching such a crazy policy without reviewing the global trade landscape will ultimately only lead to trade suicide.
The US policy actually escalates the level of confrontation globally.
Although the new Trump administration has taken a somewhat accommodating stance toward Russia, their approach cannot solve the Ukraine issue at all. Moreover, they show a tough attitude toward both China and Iran. So when we place the current international relations system in a global context, we find that the two ends of the international system balance are one triangle alliance consisting of Russia, China, and Iran, and the other isolated superpower. This is not good for the US, right?
Observer Network: From Brazil's perspective, Washington's re-imposition of tariffs on steel products based on the "Section 232" clause has drawn public attention. What is your take on this?
Pepe Escova: That's a very good question. However, although I am Brazilian, I have lived overseas for a long time and do not closely follow developments within Brazil. I have lived in European countries, the US, and Asian countries, and over the past thirty years, I have mainly stayed in Asia. Therefore, my focus is primarily on the US, Europe, and all of Asia, and I know little about the details of Brazil's domestic affairs.
In general, as a Brazilian, I believe that the current geo-economic situation facing Brazil is very complex—even within the Lula government, many officials openly oppose overly close cooperation with Russia, China, and the BRICS nations. But at the same time, China is Brazil's largest trading partner, far surpassing the importance of the US.
Therefore, if the US imposes tariffs on Brazilian steel or other products, Brazil will inevitably respond. Additionally, the US lobbying power in Brazil is extremely strong, and the Lula government must make cautious decisions. However, regardless of this, Brazil will inevitably respond to the US tariff policy.
Brazil has a powerful pro-Trump faction—Bolsonaro's camp—that is inherently opposed to the Lula government, so I believe that Brazil must be extra careful in handling its relations with China and the US. Fortunately, President Lula has extensive experience in this regard. However, future fluctuations and challenges in US-Brazil relations will remain.
Observer Network: Since taking office, Trump has continuously stirred up global situations: expelling immigrants, alienating European allies, cutting military aid to Ukraine, imposing large-scale tariffs, and now sparking a fierce trade war with China. As an observer of the transfer of global power, what do you think is driving this chaos? Are we witnessing the collapse of the old international order and moving towards a chaotic state of "each nation fending for itself"?
Pepe Escova: Indeed, compared to three months ago, we have entered a completely new era. Three months ago, we could still consider various countries from the US, Canada, Western Europe, to Eastern Europe as a "collective West" with similar wills; now, there is a brutal and nakedly worshipful powerful country within the Western bloc.
It calls itself an "empire," sending strong signals to the world: "Everything must be done according to my will; otherwise, I will either impose tariffs or resort to force." Other Western countries are also placed in a subordinate position. Trump and his team do not consider Europe to have any value in geopolitics, technology, or economics. Worse still, Trump believes that the US is paying for Europe's security. Therefore, he thinks that from now on, if Europe wants to continue receiving protection from the US, it must pay for America's military protection.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, there exists a "Global South" camp led by Russia and China, comprising the majority of countries in the world. In this camp, China is an unparalleled trade giant globally, and the strategic partnership between Russia and China is crucial. The core issue now is that the international financial system is still dominated by the West, especially the US.
The tension in today's world situation stems from the rise of the US's "imperial" mindset. This is evident whether in discussions about annexing Greenland, swallowing Canada, or treating other allies as vassals. This rise of the "imperial" mindset is also clearly displayed in its actions against the majority of the world, especially China.
We are stepping into a thoroughly disorderly new era where the so-called new world order essentially represents chaos triggered by the decline of an empire. This irreversible decline makes this old empire increasingly dangerous as it progresses toward its end.
Trump posted a "new map" on his self-created social platform on January 8, marking Greenland in Denmark, Canada, and the US all with the same yellow marker.
Observer Network: In your latest article, you wrote, "This is the chaos of the empire against the BRICS nations." Why did you describe it this way? How should we safeguard our own interests?
Pepe Escova: This image of the "chaos empire" versus the "BRICS nations" has become more apparent this year as the US escalated its economic war against China, its trade war, and its potential hot war against Iran, another BRICS member country.
A few months ago, we could summarize the US actions against the BRICS nations as a multi-layered "hybrid war" involving "color revolutions," economic sabotage, and political pressure. Now the situation is more complex, as the US is engaged in direct conflicts with two extremely important BRICS nations—China and Iran.
Without a doubt, China is the primary target of the US. At the same time, they are attempting to use the Roman strategy of "divide and conquer," trying to split Russia and China, but this will inevitably fail.
I believe that the BRICS summit held in Rio in early July will decide many things. At that meeting, the BRICS nations will collectively decide how to jointly resist the out-of-control US empire and attract the "global majority"—the "Global South" countries with feasible policies. They will also attempt to explore ways to bypass the dollar and try to use more local currencies in internal trade.
The cooperation among BRICS countries must go further, which is crucial. Then we will see how the next phase of the contest between the "chaos empire" and the "BRICS camp" unfolds.
Observer Network: In 2023, China's exports of solar panels to Brazil increased by 80%. The clean energy cooperation between China and Brazil is very important for both sides. From your perspective, will the Section 301 tariffs imposed by the US on Brazilian steel and aluminum disrupt the clean energy cooperation between China and Brazil?
Pepe Escova: Such a "crazy" tariff policy aims to destroy the cooperative relationships within the BRICS nations. Brazil and China's attempts to circumvent these tariffs will also become an excellent experiment for countries to bypass the dollar system. I think in this experiment, we can try using digital Renminbi or other currencies for transactions.
However, the Central Bank of Brazil currently maintains high consistency with the Federal Reserve, making it difficult to suddenly implement entirely different monetary policies and settlement currencies. We are unsure whether the Lula government has sufficient political will and ability to initiate this new process.
If successful, it would be ideal. Because the most effective way to cope with this wave of tariff "tsunami" globally is for countries to conduct bilateral trade in their own currencies, bypassing the US financial channels. For Brazil, this will be an excellent institutional test.
Central Bank of Brazil building. Photo: Brazilian media
Observer Network: Brazil possesses abundant nickel mines but is caught in the crossfire between China's mining agreements and the US Biden climate bill. Meanwhile, the Lula government is already in a dispute with Washington over tariffs at the World Trade Organization. How will Brazil maintain initiative and avoid suppression in this global game? Can Brazil turn this resource confrontation into a battle to reclaim technological sovereignty?
Pepe Escova: You just mentioned a key concept—sovereignty. Yes, the core lies in sovereignty. If an emerging country like Brazil is to truly gain sovereignty, it must shed external pressures. In fact, compared to Russia and China, the pressure from the US affects Brazil more strongly, resulting in a relatively slow pace in strengthening national sovereignty.
Thus, returning to the issue of tariffs: if Brazil can circumvent these tariffs by expanding trade with its main trading partners, especially China, and bypassing dollar settlements, it would take a critical step toward constructing a new global geoeconomic landscape. This will be a crucial test; the increasing use of the Renminbi and other local currencies in trade between ASEAN and China needs to be promoted within the BRICS nations.
Theoretically, BRICS nations have proposed a multilateral digital settlement platform based on blockchain—the "BRICS Bridge" proposed by Russia in February 2024. Although Brazil has not yet joined this system, if this mechanism succeeds, it will provide possibilities to completely bypass the traditional monetary system, especially the dollar.
In addition, the People's Bank of China is promoting a mechanism called "mBridge" (Multi-Central Bank Digital Currency Bridge), which can also support relevant experiments among BRICS nations. The testing of platforms like the "BRICS Bridge" in the coming months and next year is crucial. Once such an alternative payment system is established, member states can completely bypass US financial control.
Observer Network: You were banned on Facebook and Twitter. What happened back then? What are your plans after that?
Pepe Escova: I was first banned on Facebook and have never been reinstated. At that time, I collaborated with the Hong Kong "Asia Times," and their lawyers sent a letter to Facebook requesting an explanation, but no reply was received.
The situation with Twitter was different; I was banned for reporting on Iran and Iraq. Only after Musk took over and acquired Twitter were my account and those of some other journalists and analysts restored. Scott Ritter, a famous foreign web political commentator and former US Marine Corps intelligence official who once led UN arms control missions in Iraq, had the same experience as me, and we returned to X within the same week. At least, Musk paid attention to previous Twitter bans on news workers.
Observer Network: After experiencing these events, how do you view freedom of speech in the West? How does the US shape public opinion to create a favorable environment for itself in issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade wars, and the Middle East issues you are familiar with?
Pepe Escova: The US controls the global soft power industry, bringing significant problems. Their strongest skill, perhaps their only one, is constructing, altering, distorting narratives, and constantly innovating. They can do this because they control global social media and discourse. Having the "operating system" gives the empire a huge advantage.
We cannot say that the West—especially Europe—truly has freedom of speech. Although the new US government is trying to promote the idea that "freedom of speech on social media has been fully achieved," there are still taboos: criticizing Israel or claiming genocide in Gaza in the US will result in bans.
The situation in Europe is more severe; criticizing EU or EU Commission policies is considered crossing boundaries. Additionally, if you oppose the Russia threat narrative and do not express anti-Russian positions, it is difficult to speak out. You must condemn Russia daily. Overall, the so-called "freedom of speech" in the West is merely an illusion; it does not exist. By contrast, the space for speech in places like Asia is much freer.
Observer Network: Do you think that "Global South" countries can reshape the development discourse framework through the "BRICS+" mechanism, achieving innovation in sustainable development, technology transfer, and multilateral financing paradigms?
Pepe Escova: Regarding all of this, the BRICS nations themselves are the best laboratory. Last year, I spent nearly half a year in Moscow tracking the preparation for the BRICS summit held in Kazan in October and had the opportunity to interact with several members of the BRICS Business Council. They were trying to discuss different settlement mechanisms, technological innovations, and artificial intelligence at that time.
They told me that since we are a group of countries sitting at the same table, all decisions require consensus, making it complex and difficult to reach agreement; however, from another perspective, this is unprecedented because we are testing all possibilities and exploring something entirely new.
Based on this, I proposed the concept of a "BRICS Lab" (Brics Lab). Currently, the BRICS nations group is like a vast laboratory, testing various economic models and technological exchanges. Perhaps this year or next, we will see a large number of test results.
We need to first promote these policies within BRICS member countries; if feasible, then pilot them between BRICS members and their partners, expanding the scope of cooperation to 14 to 19 countries, and then extending it to other countries in the Global South.
We are now in a great era because the BRICS nations may soon push forward a major experiment affecting the world. Facing the trade war initiated by the US against most BRICS nations, all parties must accelerate their steps and increase testing efforts. Based on my experience last year in interacting with these individuals, the outlook is very optimistic because they know that there is no choice but to pursue independent development. The current trade war adds pressure and motivation to this experiment.
Now, for the "Global South" countries, whether in terms of technology, economy, or trade, the related construction of the "Global South" countries needs to consider how to bypass the US. Everyone knows this is the only way out. Finally, I hope to end today's interview with a hopeful statement—
Although the road ahead is dark, we have already seen the faint stars in the distance.
This article is an exclusive piece from Observer Network, and the content purely reflects the author's personal views, which do not necessarily represent the platform's views. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited, or legal consequences will ensue. Follow Observer Network on WeChat (ID: guanchacn) for daily interesting articles.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7500055134005805580/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and welcome your opinions by clicking the "Like/Dislike" buttons below.