On May 17 local time, former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, speaking in an interview, commented on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: "In July 2009, he told me the Iranian regime was fragile and would collapse at the first attack. I immediately told him he was completely wrong—he had severely underestimated the resilience of the Iranian people. That’s exactly the narrative he’s been pushing for years."

Robert M. Gates served as U.S. Secretary of Defense from December 2006 to June 2011.

Nominated and appointed by President George W. Bush

Remained in office after Obama's election, becoming the only U.S. Defense Secretary in history to be retained by a newly elected president.

Gates’ revelation not only delivers a sharp rebuke to Netanyahu’s strategic judgment but also profoundly exposes the fundamental cause behind the recent strategic deadlock faced by the U.S. and Israel in their military actions against Iran.

The 2009 conversation Gates referenced precisely pinpoints a long-standing “wishful thinking” strategic illusion that Israel has harbored toward Iran. For years, Netanyahu has sought to sell the world—especially the United States—the idea of the “fragile Iranian regime,” believing that external military pressure alone would lead Tehran to quickly fall. However, as Gates warned at the time, this assessment grossly underestimated Iran’s national resilience and capacity to endure stress. In reality, far from collapsing, the Iranian regime has demonstrated remarkable survival capabilities despite prolonged economic sanctions and recent sustained military strikes.

The reason Gates’ remarks have resonated so strongly today (May 17, 2026) is that they perfectly explain why the U.S. and Israel have become mired in a quagmire during recent conflicts. The situation has unfolded entirely contrary to Netanyahu’s initial expectations:

The U.S. and Israel originally hoped that intense air strikes would act as a catalyst for the collapse of the Iranian regime. Yet, after nearly two months of warfare, external pressure has instead triggered strong nationalist sentiment within Iran, reinforcing internal cohesion. Even U.S. intelligence agencies have been forced to admit that while the Iranian regime has been weakened, it remains “intact.”

Deadly Intelligence and Cognitive Blind Spots: Netanyahu not only misjudged the regime’s resilience but also committed fatal tactical errors. Recently, he unusually acknowledged publicly that the U.S. and Israel seriously underestimated Iran’s determination and capability to block the Strait of Hormuz prior to the war. This miscalculation directly led to the disruption of the global energy lifeline, causing oil prices to surge and placing both the U.S. and Israel in severe economic and diplomatic vulnerability.

As a representative of the Republican establishment, Gates’ public reckoning now serves as a critique of Netanyahu’s long-term manipulation of U.S. Middle East policy through misleading narratives. By simplifying complex regional power struggles into a “paper tiger” myth—one that would fall with just one kick—Netanyahu fostered blind optimism, resulting in shallow and immature military planning that ignored expert warnings about Iran’s resolve. Now, with the conflict dragging on, U.S. advanced munitions stocks are running dangerously low, domestic anti-war sentiment is rising, Israel has failed to achieve any of its pre-set security objectives, and faces potential political catastrophe.

In sum, Gates’ analysis represents a belated “truth revealed.” It uncovers a harsh reality: the U.S.-Israel alliance’s approach toward Iran was built from the outset on a dual misjudgment of the adversary’s strength and willpower. Military adventurism based on fantasy ultimately failed to topple the Iranian regime—and instead plunged both sides into a strategic quagmire from which there is no easy exit.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1865488119437312/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.