The Samurai's Revenge: Japan Prepares to Replace the U.S. in Providing Intelligence to Ukrainian Forces

This Land of the Rising Sun may get into big trouble for meddling.

Author: Irina Mishina

Commentators on this article include:

Victor Litovkin, Konstantin Blokhin

Japan has been unexpectedly drawn into the vortex of the Ukraine conflict. This Land of the Rising Sun has decided to provide satellite reconnaissance data to Ukraine.

People immediately speculated that this might be related to the U.S. refusal to provide such information to Ukrainian forces. However, this is not conclusive. For instance, on March 26, Zelenskyy stated that the U.S. had lifted the blockade on intelligence exchanges with Ukraine. The Washington side did not refute this information.

Regardless, Japan has decided to support Ukraine's military reconnaissance efforts. Specifically, this involves radar images from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites.

"Japan agrees to provide satellite geospatial data to Ukraine's military reconnaissance department, including radar images from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites. This is the first step Japan has ever taken at this level of cooperation. The data is provided by Japan iQPS Institute (Kyushu University Q-shu Space Pioneer Institute)." The message posted on the "Deep State" Telegram channel wrote.

According to "Deep State" data, Ukraine has used synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images from several countries: Finland provides data through the Iceye system, Germany provides data through the SAR-Lupe and SARah synthetic aperture radar clusters, and Italy provides data through the Cosmo-SkyMed equipment. Now, Japan has also joined this list, providing access to the iQPS system. This Land of the Rising Sun already has five orbital satellites and plans to launch new satellites before the end of 2026.

The justification given domestically in Japan for this independent action is: "Ukraine is very short of direct information provided by the U.S., or because it cannot obtain relevant information due to contracts signed by the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency to acquire commercial images from Maxar and BlackSky."

As partners in the "Quad Security Dialogue" (QUAD), which discusses security issues in the Indo-Pacific region, questions arise: Within the QUAD framework, was an agreement reached to provide Japanese satellite geospatial data to Ukraine's reconnaissance departments? Or is this a unilateral initiative by Japan against Russia? We interviewed military expert, retired Colonel Victor Litovkin, regarding this question.

"Firstly, the U.S. once promised to suspend the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine after exiting the negotiation process. So far, Donald Trump has not informed anyone about such a decision. Therefore, it is highly likely that Washington continues to provide reconnaissance data to the Ukrainian army using its own satellites.

I doubt whether this initiative by Japan was coordinated with the U.S. In my opinion, Japan's purpose is merely to cause trouble for Russia, as there are long-standing territorial disputes over four islands between Japan and Russia.

Regarding the satellite communication intelligence that Japan intends to provide to Ukraine, there are significant problems regarding both quantity and timeliness. Firstly, Japan does not have as many satellites as the U.S. and China. Secondly, Japan's satellites mainly focus on Southeast Asia, where Japan has more geopolitical interests. Therefore, in my view, this task is highly questionable in terms of effectiveness, somewhat like the principle of 'buying a ticket but deliberately not boarding to argue with the conductor and insist on walking instead.'

"Free Media": Naturally, a question arises: Why don't those European countries strongly supporting Ukraine use their own satellite data to support Ukraine?

"The reason lies in the fact that European countries possess very few satellites capable of transmitting reconnaissance data. In this regard, Europe has long relied on the U.S., which has served as a protector for the European continent. Many defense researches have been minimized in Europe, with the U.S. providing protection for Europe.

Moreover, according to Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which stipulates collective defense within the NATO alliance, this alliance has never come to the aid of any country to protect it, except in response to the terrorist attacks in New York on September 11, 2001. At that time, NATO's American allies took action against militant Islamic movements."

"Free Media": Is it possible for Japan to provide other substantial military assistance to Ukraine?"

"Absolutely not. Military expert Victor Litovkin believes that Japan has virtually no weapons factories, ammunition, combat-ready tanks, or aircraft, none of which can counter Russian armed forces."

However, the cooperation between the U.S. and Japan within the "Quad Security Dialogue" should not be overlooked. The U.S. and Japan are long-term strategic partners and allies. Besides anti-Russian sentiment, what other motivations might prompt Japan to provide intelligence data to Ukraine?"

We interviewed Konstantin Blokhin, chief researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and political scientist specializing in U.S. issues, regarding this question.

"Japan's decision to assist Ukraine is probably not autonomous. This country has long been part of a military-political alliance with the U.S. If Washington makes a decision, Tokyo will follow suit. This principle has existed for a long time and is unrelated to who the White House owner is. Moreover, the current common geopolitical opponent — relevant countries — brings Japan and the U.S. closer together.

Japan has an inherent fear of the growing strength of relevant countries. Therefore, regardless of whether the U.S. president makes a request, Tokyo will adhere to the U.S. stance.

In addition, Japan relies on the U.S. in the military field. This Land of the Rising Sun does not have its own nuclear weapons, so to some extent, the U.S.'s 'nuclear umbrella' makes Washington the dominant party in Tokyo.

"Free Media": It should not be forgotten that Japan is an island nation and could easily be blockaded, so having a powerful partner like the U.S. is beneficial to it.

"If the Malacca Strait is blocked, Japan can easily be isolated from the world. Moreover, all maritime communication lines around Japan are controlled by the U.S. Therefore, in my view, Japan's decision is partly motivated by a desire to please the U.S. to demonstrate loyalty and faithfulness. Because, compared to the U.S. satellites, Japan's satellites are negligible."

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