[By columnist Liuwenyan of the Observer Network]

Donald Trump's long-desired "Golden Dome" plan has finally made progress.

On May 20, he approved a budget totaling $175 billion for the plan, and requested its delivery within 3 years, or before the end of his term—unlike the Boeing Air Force One situation where the plane wasn't delivered before the person left office.

Trump announced the "Golden Dome" plan

The "Golden Dome" plan was initially proposed on January 27, 2025, when newly inaugurated Trump released an executive order titled "American Iron Dome" (The Iron Dome for America), launching a missile defense program aimed at completely defending U.S. territory from missile attacks by any country, including ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, advanced cruise missiles, and various air strikes. Perhaps due to the perceived incompatibility of the name "Iron Dome" with his luxurious demeanor, the plan was renamed "Golden Dome" (Golden Dome) on February 27, 2025.

This name sounds much more elegant.

The "Golden Dome" plan includes multi-layered, multi-range, and multi-domain interception methods. It mentions accelerating the deployment of the "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor Layer" and the "Diffused Warfare Space Architecture"托管 layer, as well as developing a proliferative interceptor constellation for boost-phase interception.

In addition, the "Golden Dome" includes low-tier and terminal interception capabilities to resist attacks on high-value targets, developing and deploying "non-kinetic means" to enhance the interception capability against ballistic missile targets.

The first NG-OPIR GEO satellite, reportedly capable of detecting ultra-long-range air-to-air missiles

As a key operational domain of the "Golden Dome" plan, space-based systems are an important component of the entire "Golden Dome" plan. The mentioned "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor Layer" is originally part of the "Diffused Warfare Space Architecture" "Space Sensor Layer," later归属 Missile Defense Agency's "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensor" (HBTSS).

The "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensor" will be installed on the "Mid-Field Infrared Satellite" of the "Diffused Warfare Space Architecture" to provide missile warning/missile tracking/missile defense capabilities. This system uses a highly sensitive large low-noise infrared array detector, working in the mid-wave infrared band, aiming to track and provide fire control solutions for hypersonic missiles flying in the atmosphere, while the tracking layer satellites of the "Diffused Warfare Space Architecture" will also detect the flight of the ballistic missile booster stage end.

Different from traditional boost-phase tracking, the afterburner temperature of the gliding body warhead flying inside the atmosphere can reach over 10,000K locally, but the heat source peak is not the warhead itself, which will cause the maximum thermal flow detected by the sensor not to be the warhead itself. Therefore, infrared sensors need higher precision and resolution to identify the glide vehicle position.

The Missile Defense Agency initially selected four companies for preliminary design and chose L3 Harris and Northrop Grumman to develop the preliminary validation satellite for the "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensor."

According to the article about the "Golden Dome" plan disclosed by the Missile Defense Agency on March 2025, the two "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensor" T0 experimental satellites took their first image only 45 days after entering orbit and participated in the first test of the "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensor" - HTB-1 within 119 days of entering orbit (the original plan was to participate in the test one year after launch).

Currently, the two "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensor" T0 experimental satellites have taken more than 350,000 images and collected images of missile defense agency flight tests, other government agency flight tests, commercial flight tests, other infrared events, and environmental events (Los Angeles fire) to support sensor performance calibration.

Image captured by the "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensor"

In addition, the "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensor" T0 experimental satellites also conducted HTB-2 experiments and attempted other experiments.

On March 24, 2025, the Missile Defense Agency and the U.S. Navy collaborated on a glider hypersonic target missile test, numbered "Additional Flight Test" - FT-40.

This experiment included launching an intermediate-range ballistic missile target missile in the air, practicing from detection to tracking, and finally launching a simulated SM-6 missile from the USS Pickney equipped with the "Sea-Based Terminal" Increment 3. During this experiment, the "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensor" T0 satellite also performed tracking, processing, and generating fire control data to the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer for simulating an engagement with the Aegis system.

The "Additional Flight Test" - FT-43 test scheduled for 2025 will trial the actual intercept effect. On April 10, 2025, L3 Harris announced that the performance of the "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensor" test sensor reached expectations, and the company is ready to begin full-rate production operations of the "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensor."

The Space Development Agency is developing and operating the "Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture" (PWSA) large low-orbit constellation, which has multiple functions, one of which is elastic missile early warning, tracking, and defense.

The orbit layer responsible for executing this function is called the "Tracking Layer." The tracking layer includes wide-field capture sensors working in the near-infrared band similar to the "Space Tracking and Surveillance System" to detect and track missiles.

Eight "Tracking Layer" satellites of the "0 batch" have already been launched, and the planned "Tracking Layer" satellites of batches 1, 2, and 3 of the "Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture" include 14 "Initial Operational Capability" tracking layer satellites each from Northrop Grumman and L3 Harris for batch 1.

In addition, batch 1 tracking layer also includes four demonstration "Fire Control Solution" satellites that will use T1 technology state "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensors" to demonstrate fire control-level data generation and missile defense.

Batch 2 includes 18 "Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture" batch 2 tracking layer satellites, with the latest launch no later than April 2027. Each supplier will provide 16 missile warning/missile tracking satellites equipped with wide-field infrared sensors, as well as two additional missile defense satellites equipped with "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensors."

Batch 3 tracking layer satellites will select one or more contractors to deploy up to 54 tracking layer satellites, possibly purchasing other satellites and sensor payloads. These 54 satellites include 40-45 tracking layer satellites and 9 multi-mission satellites, which have both missile warning, missile tracking, and missile defense capabilities.

"Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture" 0A group satellites, including two infrared early warning satellites developed by Space Exploration Technologies Corporation

In addition, the "Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture" also has "Transmission Layer" satellites used to serially relay data from tracking layer satellites, using Ka-band and laser intersatellite links to forward data. The "0 batch" transmission layer satellites successfully communicated with Norway's F-35 and P-8 aircraft using the link16 payload of the transmission layer on December 9, 2024.

However, the "Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture" has encountered procurement corruption scandals and technical issues. None of the laser communication experiments planned for the "0 batch" transmission layer satellites were completed, with one contractor completing three and another completing only one. On January 16, 2025, the director of the Space Development Agency, Derek Tournier, was suspended due to procurement corruption and subsequently dismissed.

Due to problems with the laser intersatellite links and the delivery of encryption payloads provided by the National Security Agency, the deployment of batch 1 satellites has been postponed from September 2024 until now, and they are still not launched. There are rumors that due to the lack of progress in the "Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture," the Space Force may cancel the subsequent transmission layer satellite purchases of the "Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture" and replace them with purchasing "Starshield" satellite services from Space Exploration Technologies Corporation.

The "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Sensor" and the "Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture" have a total of approximately 128 satellites. Compared to this, the "Golden Dome" plan is likely to significantly expand this plan. A Reuters report in April 2025 pointed out that the Trump administration plans to launch 400 to 1,000 satellites for tracking missiles, a scale far greater than the 36 satellites of the "Space Tracking and Surveillance System" Block12 or the earlier 100-satellite "Space Surveillance and Tracking System" constellation.

This may further accelerate the procurement of "Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture" satellites, and recently, the Trump administration announced the cancellation of E-7 airborne early warning aircraft procurement, turning to space-based airborne moving target indication (AMTI). The Space Force's ambition is likely to track advanced low-detectable aircraft from certain countries using space-based infrared and airborne IRST devices, and directly forward the data to combat aircraft via the "Transmission Layer" link16. The infrared tracking satellite part of the "Golden Dome" plan is also likely to be used to detect possible high-threat aerial targets to meet the capability of defending against "attacks from the air."

However, given the development delays of the Space Development Agency in this project, whether the low-orbit infrared tracking segment of the "Golden Dome" can be completed during Trump's term remains uncertain.

More than 180 companies have expressed interest in the "Golden Dome" plan, including major defense suppliers such as Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin. SpaceX is also bidding for the "hosting layer" of the "Golden Dome"—that is, the low-orbit infrared early warning-tracking layer—and the Pentagon has sent positive signals to SpaceX.

However, SpaceX stated that it would not participate in the space-based interceptor system and will adopt a subscription-like approach to sell services to the Department of Defense rather than directly selling the system. Some officials in the Pentagon expressed concerns about the "subscription" approach, indicating that some assets' operational rights are not in the hands of the Department of Defense, which may bring some risks.

In addition, some reports indicate that the missile tracking layer of the "Golden Dome" may be similar to the Starshield satellites currently used for NRO proliferation stars (NPA), which could be directly used for the "Golden Dome" after modification. It may use the lidar currently used on NRO proliferation stars to perform the "discrimination star" function to distinguish between mid-course warheads, booster stages, and decoys. According to reports, SpaceX will spend $6 billion to $10 billion to develop the "hosting layer" satellites.

Compared to these developing infrared early warning satellite systems, the more controversial part of the "Golden Dome" plan is its proliferative near-Earth interceptor constellation.

The same Reuters report pointed out that the "Golden Dome" plan will deploy 200 satellites for anti-missile purposes, which will use kinetic interceptors or space-based lasers to achieve boost-phase interception. This inevitably reminds people of the "Star Wars" plan proposed 40 years ago by Reagan.

The initial plan for this plan was to build a "space-based interceptor" constellation guided by the "space tracking and surveillance system" low-orbit infrared mid-course surveillance satellites, later changed to the "intelligent pebble" constellation with higher autonomous detection and decision-making capabilities, and finally shelved in 1994.

In the "Star Wars" plan, in addition to kinetic interceptors, the United States also studied various non-contact interception technologies, including space-based lasers and neutral particle beams (NPB).

After the "Star Wars" plan ended, the United States continued to develop the space-based laser (SBL) project in the late 20th century and early 21st century, and planned to launch the "SBL Integrated Flight Test" (SBL-IFX) in 2012. This is a large anti-ballistic missile spacecraft weighing 17.8 tons, capable of producing megawatt-level lasers, to be launched into a 400-480 kilometer orbit by then-largest heavy Delta IV rocket, and attempt to destroy an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2013.

SBL-IFX

Of course, SBL-IFX is not an automatic attack satellite or a space intelligence robot, but a research machine, and is not subject to the restrictions of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

The SBL-IFX spacecraft has a beam steering mirror ranging from 2.4 to 3.2 meters, manufactured by TRW Corporation's chemical hydrogen fluoride laser will produce megawatt-level 2.7 micrometer wavelength lasers, and will be directed toward the target through a beam steering device manufactured by Boeing Corporation and a beam steering telescope manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corporation, using adaptive optics technology to precisely adjust wavefront errors.

The SBL-IFX spacecraft is just a scaled-down experimental satellite. The planned SBL constellation to be deployed starting in 2020 will include 18 to 36 satellites, and the number of laser satellites can be reduced if a relay mirror scheme is used.

In addition, the SBL concentrator's size will reach 8 to 12 meters, far exceeding any space telescope or photonic reconnaissance satellite currently available. This system can shoot targets outside the atmosphere or destroy high-altitude aircraft, but due to the limitations of its laser wavelength, the SBL cannot attack low-altitude spacecraft or ground targets because the 2.7 micrometer laser used is completely absorbed by the atmosphere before reaching the ground.

I believe that not all interceptors in the "Golden Dome" plan will use laser anti-missile satellites; maybe only a small portion will consist of laser anti-missile satellites. But even building a spacecraft like an SBL-IFX can be considered a kind of spectacular existence, let alone picking up the abandoned SBL technology again after more than 10 years during Trump's 47th term.

Therefore, the "Golden Dome" plan is more likely to rely mainly on interceptor constellations. Thanks to the deep accumulation of the United States, developing an interceptor capable of mid-course defense probably does not present any technical problems. Although 40 years ago, both the "Space Interceptor" and the "Intelligent Pebble" encountered issues with interceptors exponentially increasing in size and weight, ultimately failing to materialize.

However, thanks to the powerful space access capability of SpaceX's "Falcon 9," the "Golden Dome" plan now has far superior space access capabilities compared to 40 years ago, so the increased mass of interceptors would not pose any problems.

However, considering that the United States has been dragging its feet on producing THAAD and SM-3 interceptors, whether it can mass-produce high-performance interceptors covering the globe and complete deployment before Trump leaves office remains uncertain and somewhat pessimistic.

Concept diagram of interceptors in the "Intelligent Pebble" plan

Given the current Trump administration's grandiose and impractical requirement for the "Golden Dome" to be completed within 3 years, based on the current rate of technological maturity and production maturity decline in the United States, being able to produce a prototype interceptor capable of intercepting intercontinental ballistic missiles within 3 years is akin to a fairy tale, let alone reproducing the giant laser anti-missile satellite with a caliber close to LUVOIR-A from 20 years ago.

Compared to the sky-high dream of the space-based interceptor project in Trump's mind, a more realistic solution within the claimed delivery time frame is still to supplement the existing ground-based interceptor system.

Currently, the United States is simultaneously conducting various ground-based interceptor projects. These include new development projects such as NGI and GPI, as well as tapping potential in existing assets such as THAAD and PAC-3 MSE.

Since the last decade, the United States has been continuously developing new-generation ground-based interceptors or upgrading existing assets on a large scale to address increasingly significant threats from China and Russia. However, due to official policies and internal disputes, most of these proposals have come to naught.

So far, although the GBI missile primarily relied upon by the U.S. national missile defense system (NMD) has certain combat capabilities, due to the limited number of installations (only 44 sites), and each interceptor can only carry one interceptor, its combat effectiveness is very low when facing large-scale missile attacks.

Remaining unintercepted warheads will then be dealt with by the THAAD system after re-entry. However, due to the U.S. own decision to cut the expansion in size to gain greater scalability and maneuverability for THAAD-ER, the current THAAD's ability to intercept intercontinental missiles exists only on paper.

In short, even according to the official U.S. statement, the existing GMD system can only defend against small-scale attacks from rogue nuclear states such as North Korea (and potentially Iran), and is helpless against the nuclear strike capabilities of major adversaries.

It was not until the NGI project officially started in 2020 that the concept of a new generation of ground-based interceptors began to take shape.

Unlike GBI, NGI was designed from the outset to face the demand of "great power competition," aiming to defend against the growing missile threats from "great powers." By 2021, MDA awarded early development contracts to Lockheed Martin (hereinafter referred to as LM) and Northrop Grumman (hereinafter referred to as NG), with the goal of delivering the first operational deployment missile by 2028.

Unlike the management capabilities of most recent U.S. missile weapon projects, which can be described as catastrophic, both companies made remarkable progress in the NGI project, without experiencing the common combination of delays and cost overruns. Instead, both submitted PDR reports in the second half of 2023, advancing the schedule by several months.

MDA originally planned to select the final contractor in 2025, but due to the overall policy acceleration of the missile defense plan, LM was announced as the contract winner in April 2024 and became the sole contractor for subsequent development and flight testing.

Concept diagram of NGI interceptors

We still do not know the details of the NGI interceptor, but according to the assessment report provided by GAO, we can make the following judgments about the general performance of the final equipped NGI missile:

The scale of the NGI missile must be much larger than GBI (20 tons), possibly reaching 40 tons or heavier;

The NGI design aims to carry multi-object interceptors (MOKV), with a maximum of possibly 12.

MDA plans to officially procure the NGI system starting in 2028, and this system is expected to serve as the main weapon of the U.S. anti-missile network in the coming years.

In addition to the NGI system designed to counter ballistic missiles, MDA is also synchronously developing the GPI interceptor targeting hypersonic missile threats. Compared to conventional ballistic missiles, hypersonic gliders are more maneuverable and operate in harsher environments, and ordinary exo-atmospheric interceptors cannot perform interception tasks, requiring impact interception to achieve interception.

According to MDA requirements, the new interceptor should be compatible with the Mk41 VLS and become the future carrier vessel for the "Arleigh Burke"-class destroyer. The missile system should be compatible with the current or future versions of the "Aegis" information command system, which imposes very strict limitations on the size of the missile.

In 2021, the United States officially initiated the development of the GPI project and received bids from Raytheon (hereinafter referred to as RTX), LM, and NG. Later, Lockheed Martin was eliminated in 2022. In 2024, NG won the bid over RTX and became the final contractor for the GPI project. Notably, the entire project will be jointly developed with Japan.

GPI interceptors will be launched from ships

Since the research is still in its relatively early stages, there is currently little detailed information about GPI. We can only speculate based on relevant promotional videos and brochures:

Multistage solid rocket boosters accelerate, with the last stage rocket propelling the warhead toward the final intersection point;

The glider interceptor has strong lateral maneuverability;

Capable of intercepting targets traveling at speeds above Mach 5.

Currently, the project is still in the conceptual research phase. Due to budget shortages, GPI is expected to enter the engineering development phase around 2030 and plans to equip U.S. and Japanese combat forces between 2032 and 2035.

Presentation slide from Japan regarding the GPI interceptor

Aside from new equipment under development, many existing assets in the U.S. are also undergoing upgrades and replacements to address new missile threats. For critical early warning radars, the U.S. is heavily investing in the construction and development of the Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR).

The LRDR system has two antenna arrays, each with a coverage range of 120 degrees, giving the radar a field of view of approximately 240 degrees. Each LRDR antenna consists of 10 "panels," with dozens of sub-array modules on each panel, and each module containing 16 nitrogen gallium T/R elements. The entire radar has more than 100,000 T/R elements, giving it powerful detection capabilities.

According to the U.S. official description, the LRDR can simultaneously search and track multiple targets at very long distances, reducing the number of land-based interceptors required to respond to threats by correctly identifying decoys and warheads, thereby enhancing the defensive capability of the homeland interceptor inventory.

In addition, the LRDR also supports space surveillance functions and can, in the future, accomplish high-speed target monitoring tasks through software-defined missions.

Notably, through modular design, different numbers of sub-arrays can be combined to construct radars of different sizes. The SPY-7(V)1 radars equipped on the "Land-Based Aegis" deployed in Japan and the next-generation ASEV destroyers will also use the same sub-array modules, with each radar housing thousands of nitrogen gallium T/R power amplification elements.

In addition, the THAAD systems in the U.S. military are also being upgraded. Recently, Raytheon delivered the first upgraded TPY-2 radar equipped with nitrogen gallium T/R modules to the U.S. military. Raytheon claims that its detection range is twice that of the original TPY-2 radar and also enhances its capability to track hypersonic missiles through software upgrades.

Lockheed Martin also proposed a plan to strengthen low-tier atmospheric anti-missile capabilities by integrating the TPY-2 radar with the PAC-3 MSE missile.

According to Lockheed Martin's description, by accessing a stronger radar, the range of the PAC-3 MSE missile can be greatly expanded, allowing it to intercept incoming tactical ballistic missile targets at much greater distances—especially for missiles employing depressed trajectories, as the THAAD system has a minimum operational height, making it unlikely to effectively intercept them.

The "Golden Dome" plan can be seen as a time-limited recreation of the "Star Wars" plan. Although it doesn't involve the comprehensive coverage from infrared early warning to infrared tracking, mid-course interception, and ground-based interception like the "Star Wars" plan did, the industries and scale involved are unprecedented.

Although the United States still has world-leading space access capabilities today, the massive scale of the plan and the seemingly unrealistic "3-year deployment" instruction still make us concerned. Moreover, with shields come spears, and the offensive side will not sit idly by.

Even if the "Golden Dome" plan is truly deployed and can intercept conventional intercontinental ballistic missiles, some intercontinental strike weapons might still slip through the gaps between the interception system envelopes and turn Trump's pride into a sea of nuclear fire and destruction.

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