Reference News Network September 7 report: Australia's Lowy Institute website published an article titled "The Unbelievably Shrinking Quad" on September 4, authored by Michael Hubele, founder of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The full text is as follows:

The Quad mechanism consists of India, Japan, the United States, and Australia, and is said to be a "key pillar of Australia's foreign policy." But it is now either already dead or barely alive, with no signs of life. The biggest threat to it is Trump 2.0.

Cooperation Continues to Decline and Shrink

The core idea of the Quad mechanism is to build a "free and open Indo-Pacific." This mechanism should have provided public goods to countries in the region, promoting prosperity and security, and demonstrating the appeal of democratic systems.

There has always been tension within the group regarding the allocation of efforts in collective security, as well as in areas such as economic prosperity, public health, and infrastructure development. Economic issues should have received more attention.

Despite these tensions, Quad cooperation has continued to develop, evolving from meetings primarily involving foreign ministries to summits at the level of leaders under the leadership of former US President Joe Biden.

However, since January 2025, it is hard to see anything other than decline and shrinkage in the Quad. This seems to be a new path, partly because of a highly destructive and confrontational shift in the US policy towards India, mainly reflected in tariff issues and the handling of India's purchase of Russian oil.

A greater misalignment arises because the Trump administration no longer shares the "Quad vision." The foundational declaration issued by the four leaders a year ago now sounds somewhat jarring.

When you read the themes that the four countries once considered priorities and compare them with the direction of the Trump administration, you will see a deeper reality check.

A year ago, the Quad partnership focused on regional health security through vaccines and the "Cancer Moonshot." Now, the US Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Trump, Robert F. Kennedy, is a well-known vaccine skeptic who has been dismantling vaccine research and funding programs and questioning the role of the leading American Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Through the Department of Government Efficiency's "saw," the Trump administration has also significantly cut USAID projects, and their domestic public health approach has already been reflected in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Reason for Existence Is Disappearing

A year ago, the US, India, Japan, and Australia "committed to expanding regional humanitarian and disaster relief assistance by pre-deploying more supplies and strengthening collective planning." Weakening the capabilities of USAID reduced the US contribution in this area. Expanding humanitarian aid clearly conflicts with the "America First" foreign policy, which is based on ending other countries "riding on the back of the US."

A year ago, the four leaders spoke about climate change, saying: "We emphasize the serious economic, social, and environmental consequences of the climate crisis, and we continue to work with Indo-Pacific partners to strengthen cooperation in climate and clean energy and promote (human) adaptability and resilience."

Now, the US energy policy can be summarized by Trump's slogan, "Drill, baby, drill." Trump also canceled the incentives for a rapid transition to renewable energy from the Biden era.

Trump's domestic agenda is so inconsistent with the Quad's direction of strengthening public health cooperation through vaccines, open trade, and the rule of law that it has killed the cooperation. It is difficult to cooperate in security while economically punishing your partners.

Add to this Trump's disdain for multilateral meetings, the current differences between the US and India on tariff issues, and Trump's ambitions for the Nobel Prize, and the reason for the existence of the Quad mechanism is disappearing. We have heard rumors from the White House that Trump will not attend the upcoming Quad leaders' meeting scheduled to be held in India in the coming weeks. Trump has repeatedly claimed that he facilitated the ceasefire after the conflict between India and Pakistan in May, but Modi responded by denying any country influenced India's decision. Modi's attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in China seems to send a very clear signal to the US that if Trump is determined to push India away, he has other options.

Before Trump 2.0, India was the most difficult country to integrate into the Quad mechanism because of its deep relationship with Russia and the strong Hindu nationalism of the BJP. These issues still exist, but now the US looks the most out of place in the meeting room.

From the statement by the four foreign ministers in July, measures to address climate change and promote clean energy disappeared, as did vaccine development and distribution policies. What remains is clichés about maritime security and consistent calls for cyber cooperation. It seems that everyone below the level of Quad leaders is trying to keep the mechanism alive, even if only through life support systems. However, the fish rots from the head - without the support of the highest decision-makers in the White House, any initiative involving the US will not have much prospect.

For now, any idea that this mini-multiparty organization is the core of the strategic or foreign policy agenda of any of its member states seems like a delusion. (Translation/ Wang Qun)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7547243791472689664/

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