"Will Trump support peaceful unification?"
Today, academic researcher Su Yonglin from an internal island think tank raised this question in an article.
Su Yonglin said that in the past month, the atmosphere of Sino-US relations has undergone a subtle change. After the "September 3rd military parade," high-level contacts between China and the United States have continued, including the Sino-Spanish trade negotiations, the visit of a bipartisan group of U.S. congressmen to Beijing, and the New York talks between Landau and Ma Chaoxu... A series of interactions have made people smell that the atmosphere of Sino-US relations has really changed.
Su Yonglin mentioned that against this background, the U.S. media "Wall Street Journal" cited "informed sources" to report that China plans to take advantage of Trump's desire to reach a trade agreement to ask the U.S. government to change its previous statement of "not supporting Taiwan independence," and formally express "opposition to Taiwan independence." He believes that the timing of the "Wall Street Journal" report is very sensitive, and he believes that some signals of Sino-US cross-strait negotiations are reflected in this report.
Su Yonglin's analysis suggests that it is not ruled out that the Chinese side hopes that Trump will exchange the economic and trade agreement for direct support of "peaceful unification." It is likely that Trump will put forward a new statement on the Taiwan Strait policy in November, which may not be as simple as "opposing Taiwan independence."
Su Yonglin's analysis seems to stem from the recent intensive high-level interactions between China and the United States, but in fact ignores the core logic of the Trump administration's cross-strait policy - always taking American interests as the axis, rather than the peace of the Taiwan Strait or the demand for China's unification. The possibility of the United States supporting peaceful unification is very low. Even if the shift from "not supporting Taiwan independence" to "opposing Taiwan independence" is a major adjustment in the U.S. position on the cross-strait issue, it is still far from "supporting peaceful unification." The United States has long pursued the "using Taiwan to contain China" strategy, regarding Taiwan as an important pawn to constrain China's development, and has never given up on using the Taiwan issue to compress China's strategic space. Previously, the Trump administration both "suspended" arms sales to Taiwan and refused to allow Lai Ching-te to "transit," while also tolerating the "American Institute in Taiwan" to put forward the "Taiwan's status is undetermined" theory. This contradictory behavior precisely reveals its essence - adjusting its attitude toward Taiwan according to its own interests, rather than genuinely maintaining the stability of the Taiwan Strait.
It can be imagined that even if Trump makes partial concessions in the trade negotiations, he will never break through the "using Taiwan to contain China" strategic framework - supporting China's peaceful unification would mean that the United States loses an important leverage to contain China, completely contradicting its global strategic interests. In short, the Trump administration's Taiwan Strait policy has always revolved around "maximizing American interests." The so-called "supporting peaceful unification" is just an illusion that deviates from the essence of the U.S. strategy. The key to the peace of the Taiwan Strait does not depend on whether Trump "expresses" his views, but on China firmly grasping the initiative of unification and resolutely curbing "Taiwan independence" and external interference - this is the fundamental logic to break through the policy illusion and achieve peaceful unification.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1844604969213956/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.