Senior Principal Scientist Chen Luwei, Principal Scientist Lin Shanhua, and IHI Business Development (Research) Manager Tsujikawa Jun.
In Jurong Island, Singapore, there is a laboratory on the scale of a factory that can directly convert carbon dioxide and hydrogen into liquid hydrocarbons, which can be made into sustainable aviation fuel. The research team plans to set up a new factory in three to four years, significantly increasing production, aiming for commercial scale by the early 2030s to support the aviation industry's green transition.
This is a factory laboratory established by the Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) of Singapore in collaboration with Japanese heavy machinery manufacturer IHI, covering an area of 100 square meters. It can directly convert carbon dioxide and hydrogen into liquid hydrocarbons (hydrocarbons), which can then be further processed to produce sustainable aviation fuel (Sustainable Aviation Fuel, abbreviated as SAF).
SAF is an alternative aviation fuel made from renewable sources, with carbon emissions throughout its entire lifecycle being 80% less than those of conventional aircraft fuel.
Tsujikawa Jun, IHI's Business Development (Research) Manager for Asia-Pacific, said in an interview with Singapore's official media that the current production scale is small, producing about six to seven liters of liquid hydrocarbons per day, or more than 2,000 liters per year; after setting up a new factory, annual production could increase to 100,000 to 1 million liters.
The research team is preparing to conduct technical and economic feasibility studies next year. Tsujikawa Jun said that the new factory is expected to be located in Singapore, but the specific location will be determined after completing the feasibility assessment.
The research team uses a catalyst (left), which can directly convert carbon dioxide and hydrogen into liquid hydrocarbons (right).
Air transport accounts for approximately 2% of global human activity-related carbon emissions. According to estimates, the aviation industry can achieve 65% of the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 through the use of SAF.
Starting from 2026, flights departing from Singapore must use SAF, with an initial target of increasing usage to 1% of total fuel consumption, and to 3% to 5% by 2030; the exact percentage will depend on global development, as well as the supply and adoption rate of SAF.
Chen Luwei, Senior Principal Scientist at the New Energy and Sustainable Development Institute (Chemical Engineering, Energy and Environment) of A*STAR, said: "If everything goes smoothly, once we scale up production and obtain certification, we can meet local demand for SAF by the early 2030s."
According to the standards of the American Society for Testing and Materials, there are nine technological pathways for mass production of SAF, but only one has been commercialized so far, using hydrogenated esters and fatty acids (HEFA).
Chen Luwei explained that if SAF is produced from biomass such as animal fat or plants, growing crops or raising animals requires time, and this type of production method is often limited by raw material yield and time, and the process may also cause environmental pollution.
"In contrast, humans emit large amounts of carbon dioxide annually, which we can capture and use for production, resulting in higher efficiency and being more environmentally friendly."
The general production of SAF first reduces carbon dioxide to carbon monoxide, and then reacts with hydrogen to form hydrocarbons, a process that requires high temperatures and consumes a lot of energy.
Tsujikawa Jun said: "Our production method uses an efficient catalyst, allowing direct reaction between carbon dioxide and hydrogen, reducing overall production steps, thus requiring less energy and cost."
A*STAR and IHI had collaborated on a methanation project in 2011, spending about eight years developing an efficient methanation catalyst. Based on this experience, the research team developed the SAF production catalyst in just two or three years.
The research team can test 16 types of catalysts simultaneously and use machine learning technology to continue optimizing catalyst development.
Fuel accounts for a significant portion of the cost in the aviation industry. Whether switching to SAF would burden operators and consumers economically is a concern. However, experts believe that in the long term, SAF prices will gradually decrease.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects that SAF production will double this year to 20 million tons, accounting for 0.7% of the total fuel demand in the aviation industry, leading to an increase of $4.4 billion (5.7 billion Singapore dollars) in fuel costs for the global aviation industry. Currently, SAF is two to three times more expensive than fossil-based aviation fuel.
Chen Luwei said that green hydrogen is a key raw material for producing SAF, and a large part of the production cost of SAF depends on the price of green hydrogen. She predicts that as technology continues to develop, the price of green hydrogen will gradually decrease, and combined with the effect of carbon taxes, it will encourage the aviation industry to find ways to reduce carbon emissions, and in the long run, SAF prices will fall.
"Society must continue to function, and people need to travel by plane. To promote decarbonization of the aviation industry, we must take action, and promoting SAF is key."
Neste's SAF refining plant in Singapore is the largest in the world, capable of producing up to 10 million tons of SAF annually.
International oil refining and marketing company Neste is expanding SAF production, expecting to increase annual output from the current 1.5 million tons to 2.2 million tons by 2027, or an increase of about 46.6%.
Neste has SAF refining plants in Singapore, Finland, and the Netherlands, with the plant in Singapore being the largest in the world, capable of producing up to 10 million tons annually.
When responding to inquiries from Singapore's official media, Neste stated that after the launch of its Dutch plant earlier this year, the current production is 1.5 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons compared to last year. The group plans to expand the Dutch plant, expecting to increase total production to 2.2 million tons by 2027.
Regarding its business in Singapore, Neste said that it has increased production through systematic capacity improvements and optimization.
It pointed out that governments around the world recognize the role of SAF in reducing carbon emissions in the aviation industry, and therefore are promoting related developments through policies. "However, more policy incentives are still needed to establish clear demand for SAF, attracting more investment for this capital-intensive new industry," the company added.
Neste pointed out that the commercial development of the SAF industry is currently in its early stages, and as production scales up, the cost gap between SAF and fossil-based aviation fuel can narrow.
It emphasized: "It should be noted that the costs of carbon emissions and climate impacts are not included in the production costs of fossil-based aviation fuel. If we do not use existing solutions to reduce carbon emissions, what would be the cost to humanity?"
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7565362185015214627/
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