Recently, Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov told the media that Russia is planning to supply components for China's wide-body aircraft under development, including the heavy-duty engine PD-26, and may also provide the PD-35 engine in the future. This statement has quickly attracted widespread attention from the outside world, with many people beginning to speculate whether this means a new turning point for the engine plan of China's C929 project, and even making it "stable."

However, the answer may be far less optimistic than imagined. Although Russia's attitude has become more pragmatic and it has actively extended an olive branch, considering multiple practical factors, the possibility of the C929 project using Russian engines is likely to be very slim, unless it is a version specifically for the Russian market.

First, choosing Russian engines would put the C929 project at great risk of Western sanctions. Since the Crimea crisis in 2014, the Russian aviation industry has been under technological blockades and sanctions from the West. The MC-21 aircraft of Russia itself had to change its supply chain due to the U.S. embargo on composite materials and components, causing serious delays in the project.

If the C929 project decides to use the Russian PD-26 or PD-35 engines, once it goes into commercial operation, any international transactions or cooperation related to the C929 could be targeted by Western countries on the grounds of "cooperating with sanctioned entities."

This is not just a technical risk; there are also significant uncertainties and changes in the commercial and political aspects. For a civilian airliner intended for the global market, such risks cannot be taken. When airlines choose an aircraft, they mainly focus on whether the plane can fly smoothly across global routes and whether its operations are stable. However, Russian engines clearly cannot guarantee this.

Secondly, China is vigorously promoting the independent development of a large bypass ratio turbofan engine project, the CJ-2000 (Changjiang-2000) engine. From the beginning, the C929 project has considered the CJ-2000 as its core alternative for domestically produced engines. Although the CJ-2000 is still in the development stage, its development speed and technical route are completely under China's control.

Compared to the Russian PD-26, which is still in the development stage and whose reliability has not been verified, China has complete autonomy in decision-making and can advance the development of the CJ-2000 according to its own needs and standards.

COMAC has accumulated rich experience in the C919 project and knows well that relying on external forces for the fate of core components is extremely unstable. Therefore, rather than taking the risk of introducing a Russian engine full of uncertainties and sanction risks, it is better to fully support the development of the domestic engine and firmly grasp the initiative in its own hands.

So, is there still room for cooperation with Russia's proposal? Yes, but it might only be limited to a specific niche area - that is, a C929 (or CR929) specifically designed for the Russian market.

Although China and Russia have stopped the joint development of the CR929, there is still mutual complementarity in their needs for wide-body aircraft. If the Chinese C929 successfully enters service in the future, Russian airlines may prefer to purchase a version that does not rely on the Western supply chain, due to their own national conditions and geopolitical considerations. In such a case, China could consider developing a derivative model of the C929 equipped with Russian engines, specifically sold to the Russian market.

This way, it meets Russia's demand for wide-body aircraft while avoiding the potential sanction risks faced by the main model of the C929 if it uses Russian engines. China can promote the C929 equipped with Western or domestic engines in the international market, while providing a specially tailored version with Russian engines for the Russian market, thus achieving maximum benefits and minimum risks.

In summary, Russia's proposal to sell heavy-duty engines to China reflects a shift in its attitude towards aviation cooperation, but it will not become the mainstream solution for China's C929 project. The future of China's large aircraft ultimately depends on its own independent research and development capabilities, not external assistance.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553099374495023650/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author and welcomes you to express your opinion below with the [top / down] buttons.