【Text by Observers Network, Chen Sijia】U.S. President Trump has signed an executive order to increase tariffs on Indian goods to 50% due to India's continued purchase of Russian oil. According to a report by "The Times of India" on August 25, as the new tariffs are about to take effect on the 27th, Indian Prime Minister Modi made a strong statement, saying that no matter how much pressure they face, his government will protect the interests of farmers and small entrepreneurs.

However, according to Bloomberg on the 26th, citing multiple sources, at the same time when the Indian government made a strong statement, India is also planning to cut down on Russian oil imports. The sources said this was a "moderate concession" to the United States, but also indicated that the country does not plan to cut ties with Russia.

On August 25, local time, Modi delivered a speech in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, stating: "I will tell our small entrepreneurs, our shopkeepers brothers and sisters, our farmers brothers and sisters, our livestock brothers and sisters... for each of you, I assure you that your interests are the most important."

He emphasized that the Indian government would never let small entrepreneurs, farmers, and livestock keepers be harmed, "No matter how much pressure there is, we will continue to strengthen ourselves to resist challenges."

Photo from video of Indian Prime Minister Modi

Previously, Indian Foreign Minister Sujan Singh had criticized the Trump administration's tariff policy during a speech in New Delhi on the 23rd. He stated: "It is ironic that a government that boasts being pro-business accuses others of doing business. If you don't like India's oil or refined oil, don't buy it. No one is forcing you. But Europe bought it, and so did the United States."

Sujan Singh pointed out that India has certain bottom lines that must be upheld and defended in tariff negotiations, and will work to protect the interests of Indian farmers and small producers. He emphasized: "We have the right to make decisions based on our national interests, which is the meaning of strategic autonomy."

Sujan Singh also revealed that despite the tense situation, trade talks between India and the United States are still ongoing, "Communication has not been cut off, people are talking to each other, and we will see what the future holds."

After Trump returned to the White House, India was one of the first countries to engage in trade negotiations with the United States, but progress has always been lacking. India has not been willing to open its agricultural and dairy product markets to the United States, and there are differences with the United States on issues such as stopping the purchase of Russian oil.

On the evening of July 31, Trump signed an executive order announcing that the U.S. would start imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods from August 7. On August 6, Trump signed another executive order, citing India's purchase of Russian energy through "direct or indirect means," and imposed an additional 25% tariff. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced that the new tariffs would take effect at midnight on August 27, local time, and the U.S. would impose a 50% tariff on Indian goods.

Reuters reported that the U.S. trade negotiation delegation had originally planned to visit India from August 25 to 29, but this plan has been canceled. Analysts believe that the U.S. is unlikely to lower or delay the tariff on India.

However, Bloomberg reported on the 26th that while the Indian government made a strong statement, it quietly planned to cut Russian oil imports to meet U.S. demands.

Multiple sources revealed that Indian refineries have planned to reduce their purchase of Russian crude oil in the coming weeks. Several Indian state-owned and private processors, including Reliance Industries, are expected to purchase approximately 1.4 million to 1.6 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day starting in October. In comparison, the average daily purchases in the first half of the year were 1.8 million barrels.

The report stated that the Indian government's petroleum department, Reliance Industries, and several Indian state-owned refiners have not yet responded to the information.

Previously, Trump repeatedly mentioned India, accusing it of significantly increasing the purchase of Russian oil since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022. Data from the Russian Kasatkin Consulting Company shows that India's purchases now account for 37% of Russia's total oil exports.

According to sources who told Bloomberg, this move is a "moderate concession" to the U.S. tariff threat. If India reaches a trade agreement with the United States and eases the pressure of purchasing Russian oil, the volume may change. However, India's measures also indicate that the country does not plan to cut ties with Russia.

The Economic Times of India reported that India exports approximately $86.5 billion worth of goods to the United States annually, and about $60.2 billion of these goods will now face a 50% tariff, while $3.4 billion of car parts and other goods will face a 25% tax rate.

Ajay Srivastava, founder of the "Global Trade Research Initiative" think tank in India, predicted that exports from affected industries could drop by 70%, from $60.2 billion to $18.6 billion. The total volume of goods exported to the United States by India could fall by 43%, posing a threat to tens of thousands of jobs in India's export centers.

Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank, estimated that the U.S. tariffs could reduce India's GDP growth rate by 0.4% in the fiscal year 2026. Analysts also warned that if exports to the U.S. significantly decline, millions of workers in India's textile, jewelry, and seafood industries could be affected.

A source told the Economic Times that the Indian government does not expect a reduction or postponement of tariffs from the U.S., and will provide financial assistance to exporters affected by the tariffs, encouraging them to expand into markets in China, Latin America, and the Middle East. "The government has identified nearly 50 countries to increase Indian exports, especially textiles, processed foods, leather products, and seafood," the source said.

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