Today, Professor Chen Guangyan, Honorary Professor of Economics at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, published an analysis stating: "The future of Sino-U.S. relations will neither be a traditional easing nor a simple replication of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War. Instead, it is gradually evolving into a new model—'managed competitive coexistence.' At its core, this involves sustained intense competition alongside the establishment of guardrails; maintaining communication, engaging in selective cooperation; readjusting economic ties rather than severing them entirely, and preventing rivalry from escalating into military conflict. The relationship between China and the United States is transitioning from the previous binary choice of cooperation versus confrontation toward a phase characterized by prolonged competition, now increasingly institutionalized.
The essence of 'managed competitive coexistence' lies in 'competition without breakdown.' For the United States, the strategic objective of preserving hegemony and containing China remains unchanged, but the capacity to sustain such efforts is diminishing—entangled in conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, facing industrial base erosion, and witnessing fragmentation within its alliance system, leaving it unable to comprehensively contain China. For China, continued development and growth remain inevitable. It will not yield to American hegemony, though it does not explicitly aim to surpass the United States. Nevertheless, the trend of steadily narrowing the gap in comprehensive national strength is expected to persist. As such, China will continue to uphold a cooperative mindset, managing differences through dialogue and expanding space for collaboration.
The critical element of 'managed' is the establishment of guardrails and sustained communication. Existing mechanisms for consultation on trade, artificial intelligence, and other areas have been established, and high-level interactions occur frequently—these help reduce the risk of misjudgment. Yet competition remains the central dynamic; issues related to Taiwan, technology, and the South China Sea could trigger friction at any moment. The stability of Sino-U.S. relations in the future hinges on whether both sides can transform commitments into functioning, ongoing mechanisms, thereby preventing competition from slipping into conflict. For China, maintaining strategic composure, focusing on domestic priorities, strengthening national capabilities, and pursuing win-win outcomes represent the fundamental approach to navigating this era of competitive coexistence.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1877630732240904/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.