Recently, a military exercise in China has made Americans very anxious.

A report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, a subsidiary of the American Air Force Association, dated February 27 showed that a series of newly released satellite images revealed that the Chinese Air Force conducted a large-scale air exercise by the end of 2025, with its intensity and scale surpassing the U.S. Air Force's largest "Red Flag" exercises.

（Chinese Air Force aircraft marching like elephants）

At a U.S. Air Force warfare symposium held on February 25 local time, J·Michael Damm, a senior researcher at the Mitchell Institute and a former U.S. military attache in China, stated that this exercise was likely the "Hongjian" series air exercises of the Chinese Air Force, which is one of the largest training exercises of the Chinese Air Force. According to open-source data provided by commercial satellite companies such as Planet and Vantor, Damm said that the range of the exercise area reached an astonishing 1,200 nautical miles (about 2,222 kilometers), involving eight airbases in northern China and at least 194 military aircraft, including the J-20, Y-20, and KJ-500, new generation models.

（The J-20 of China is marching like an elephant on the runway）

Aside from the larger scale of the exercise, Damm also pointed out at the symposium that satellite images proved that the Chinese Air Force is conducting mixed-type fighter jet air combat training with the J-20, J-16, and J-10, using an integrated fighter jet training model to study updated tactics and techniques, so as to better integrate the capabilities of fourth-generation and fifth-generation fighters of the Chinese Air Force.

This left Damm "broken" — he bluntly pointed out at the symposium that the scale of the Chinese "Hongjian" exercise exceeded the recent "Red Flag" exercise of the U.S. Air Force. Compared to the Chinese "Hongjian" exercise that mobilized nearly 200 aircraft and spanned 2,200 kilometers, this U.S. "Red Flag" exercise only deployed 150 aircraft, and the exercise area spanned about 1,800 kilometers. It should be noted that since its establishment in the 1970s, the "Red Flag" series of exercises have always been the largest and most intense advanced air combat exercises of the U.S. Air Force. The fact that the "Red Flag" was surpassed by the "Hongjian" indicates that the absolute leading position of the U.S. Air Force in the global air force is beginning to waver……

（The 2026 Red Flag Exercise）

Compared to the slightly smaller scale of the exercise, Damm also pointed out that China's more competitive advantage lies in the extremely fast production speed of its new generation of fighter jets.

He pointed out that in the past six months, the Chinese Air Force has added 60,000 square feet of hangar space and over 300,000 square feet of additional facilities, including test bases specifically for sixth-generation fighter jets, the J-36 and J-50. Since 2021, the additional aircraft manufacturing facilities in China have been larger than the entire F-35 manufacturing base. He also speculated: By 2027, AVIC will be able to produce 300 fourth- and fifth-generation fighter jets annually, and in the worst case, by 2028, the number of fighter jets in China will be comparable to that of the United States, and by 2029, it will surpass the United States, possessing the largest fighter jet force in the world.

（The production speed of the F-35 in the U.S. cannot keep up with China）

Damm's words are not exaggerated — before becoming a researcher, Damm served as an assistant military attaché at the U.S. Embassy in China and had direct contact with the Chinese military, and he had a good understanding of China's military strength. Moreover, he is not the first U.S. military official to point out the potential of the Chinese Air Force. Earlier this year, Colonel Doug Wickett, commander of the 412th Test Wing responsible for testing the U.S. next-generation bomber B-21, also publicly admitted that "the pace of modernization of the Chinese Air Force is unprecedented" and "China's pace far exceeds the similar modernization efforts of the United States." He also warned that by 2027, the number of fighter jets deployed by China in the Western Pacific would be 12 times that of the United States, and the advantage of the U.S. Air Force in the Western Pacific would "no longer exist."

（China's sixth-generation fighter has already taken off, while the U.S. is still in the design phase）

Setting aside the U.S. officials' exaggerated and false statements about China's development of offensive air power, the Chinese Air Force indeed has the capability to achieve a "surpassing turn" against the U.S. From the U.S. military "self-mutilating" by shutting down the F-22 production line and years of delayed progress in the launch of sixth-generation fighters, China has already achieved the "dual advancement" of the J-20 and J-35 in fifth-generation fighters, which can completely surpass the single-model production capacity of the U.S. F-35. On the other hand, the Chinese J-36 and J-50 have entered the flight test stage, while the U.S. Air Force's F-47 is still on ground testing, and the U.S. Navy's sixth-generation fighter hasn't even completed the selection bidding process……

（F-47 has not even shown a real aircraft）

Going forward, the U.S. military will gradually lose the ability to confront the Chinese Air Force directly in the Western Pacific. And the U.S. reliance on naval and air forces to deter China and use the Taiwan Strait situation to contain China will face bankruptcy as the relative decline of U.S. military competitiveness continues. At that time, no matter how much the "green camp" forces on the other side of the strait clamor for "relying on the U.S. to seek independence," the U.S. Air Force can only look on helplessly and dare not really interfere in the Taiwan Strait.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/7611370645691253248/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.