Indian Prime Minister Modi's absence from the ASEAN Summit held in Malaysia has sparked speculation about Indo-US relations. With the implementation of new US sanctions against Russia, India's "war profits" from importing large amounts of Russian oil may no longer be sustainable?

Indian Prime Minister Modi "stood someone up," and will not attend the ASEAN (ASEAN) Summit being held in Malaysia. US President Trump is a high-profile guest at this summit. Modi's absence has triggered speculation that the tariff negotiations between the US and India over New Delhi's continued purchase of Russian oil may have stalled.

Modi briefly mentioned on the social platform X that he would attend the upcoming ASEAN Summit "online." In his post, he emphasized his "friendly relationship" with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, as well as his willingness to promote a comprehensive strategic partnership between ASEAN and India.

Modi's post did not further explain why he did not go to Malaysia.

Anwar stated that he was informed that Modi chose to participate online due to the Diwali celebrations currently taking place in India.

Trump arrived in Kuala Lumpur on October 26 to attend the ASEAN Summit. This is the first stop of his Asia tour, after which he will travel to South Korea for another summit.

"The risk of being too close to Trump is too high"

Both leaders tried to downplay the tense atmosphere caused by the tariff deadlock.

Last Tuesday, on October 21, during a special Diwali event held at the White House, Trump said that he had a "positive dialogue" with Modi and reiterated that he would stop purchasing Russian oil.

Trump told reporters, "Our relationship is very good. He will not buy much more oil from Russia. They have already significantly reduced their purchases, and they will continue to reduce them." He added that Modi hopes "to see the end of the war in Ukraine."

Modi thanked Trump for his holiday greetings and pledged to strengthen counter-terrorism cooperation, but did not mention tariffs or oil issues.

However, news of Modi's absence from the ASEAN Summit has led to questioning from Indian opposition parties. The opposition speculates that Modi is worried that shaking hands with Trump on the international stage could leave a negative impression domestically.

A senior member of India's main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, Jairam Ramesh, stated on X on Thursday that "it is too risky for Modi to be too close to Trump."

Ramesh pointed out that Trump continuously makes statements about the issue of Russian oil and repeatedly claims that he prevented an India-Pakistan war in April – a claim denied by India – which have become political burdens for Modi.

Earlier in the week, when Trump first claimed that Modi had "guaranteed" to stop buying Russian oil, opposition leader Rahul Gandhi responded by saying, "Modi is afraid of Trump." He accused Modi of letting Trump announce policy decisions for India.

"Modi gets a warm face slapped?"

This February, Modi warmly embraced Trump at the White House. At the time, the world expected the two to continue the good relationship they had during Trump's first term.

However, soon after, India found itself without special treatment. Trump's tariff policies affected India, imposing 25% tariffs on some Indian exports.

In August, the Trump administration accused India of purchasing Russian oil to fund Moscow's war and imposed an additional 25% tariff, bringing the total to 50%. The US-India relationship fell to its lowest point in decades.

Last week, Trump further stirred the situation by claiming that Modi had "assured him" that India would stop buying Russian oil. Indian officials neither confirmed nor denied this.

"New sanctions on Russia add fuel to the fire"

Reuters reported last Thursday that Reliance Industries, India's largest buyer of Russian crude oil, is preparing to "significantly cut" imports of Russian oil.

A refinery source, speaking anonymously, told Reuters, "We expect imports to not immediately drop to zero because some goods still flow into the market through intermediaries."

A spokesperson for Reliance Group stated, "Adjustments to Russian oil imports are underway, and the company will fully comply with the guidelines of the Indian government."

The report came as the United States announced new sanctions against two major Russian oil companies - Rosneft and Lukoil. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bensons said these companies are sources of funding for the Kremlin's "war machine."

This is the first direct sanction against Russia's war since Trump's second term. The sanctions include freezing all assets of the two Russian companies in the United States and allowing secondary sanctions against foreign banks that conduct transactions with them.

This means that Indian banks that continue to assist in Russian oil transactions may face penalties.

The US Treasury规定 that companies must end transactions with the aforementioned two Russian companies by November 21. Analysts say the impact of the sanctions depends on how strictly the US enforces them and how well countries' banks cooperate.

"War profits can no longer be sustained?"

Despite the ongoing rumors about Russian oil, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that the country prioritizes energy independence and consumer interests.

On last week, Indian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated that Washington is interested in deepening energy cooperation, and discussions are underway on this matter.

Jaiswal emphasized that the primary task of India's oil imports is to "ensure the interests of Indian consumers in an unstable energy environment."

Somit Raitolia, an energy analyst based in New Delhi, told DW that India "may reduce" its imports of Russian oil, but "will not drop to zero in the short term."

India's crude oil imports from Russia increased nearly 19 times from 2021 to 2024, from 100,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, making Russia India's largest crude oil supplier.

In 2022, after Moscow launched the war and faced sanctions, New Delhi made "war profits" by purchasing Russian oil at discounted prices.

India once argued that the US also supported India's purchase of Russian oil to stabilize global oil prices.

Source: DW

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