German media reported that, in the long run, the Sino-US tariff war might not necessarily be a bad thing for the relations and long-term development of both countries! On April 22nd, German media cited expert opinions stating that no one knows how long the US-China tariff war will last. From Trump's exemption of some tariff items, it can be seen that Trump has sent signals and is willing to negotiate. It depends on how Beijing responds.
German media said that in the short term, the trade war will have an impact on both China and the United States. However, from a long-term perspective, it may not necessarily be all bad. Firstly, after this economic life-and-death contest, both sides can truly understand their own strength, which may prompt both sides to find a stable way to coexist. Secondly, for China, it is also entirely possible to promote structural reforms under the pressure of the United States and establish economic growth based on consumption-driven growth.
Therefore, from this perspective, this is not entirely bad for both countries. What do we think about this argument by German media? To some extent, the tone of German media does make sense. Why do we say so? From the perspective of Sino-US competition, up to now, the United States has not accepted coexistence with us in peace. Therefore, the United States has been plotting to suppress our development through various means. The trade war occurred against the backdrop of this great competition between China and the United States.
If the two sides must go through a competition before achieving friendly coexistence, then making the United States realize this through the trade war is not necessarily a bad thing. At least, it is better than direct military conflict. If the United States loses in this trade war, we believe that the United States will have a greater probability of accepting peaceful coexistence with us. Furthermore, from our perspective, the trade war is a crisis in Sino-US relations.
The ongoing trade war indeed prompts us to undergo a major transformation in our economic development model. This transformation makes us pay more attention to consumption and realize the importance of domestic consumption for economic development. Although we face significant challenges at present, if we seize the opportunity, we will have a more structurally balanced and reasonable economic structure. We certainly do not want to engage in a trade war, but if we have to, perhaps we can create a new situation.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1830062524095683/
Disclaimer: This article only represents the views of the author.