Japan's Dilemma on Russian Oil Amid Energy Crisis
According to a May 7 report by Japanese media outlet JCAST NEWS: The Strait of Hormuz is effectively blockaded at present. Approximately 20% of global oil supply and about 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports pass through this vital artery, severely impacting Japan’s energy security. Under such dire circumstances, the prospect of resuming purchases of Russian crude oil has drawn significant attention.
Today, oil-producing countries in the Middle East are no longer a unified system. The UAE has withdrawn from OPEC, leading to discoordination among oil producers and escalating geopolitical conflicts, increasing the risk of further oil price hikes.
If Japan were to shift toward crude oil from allies like the United States and Mexico, a major obstacle remains. Most of Japan’s refineries are designed to process high-sulfur, heavy-grade Middle Eastern crude (medium-heavy oils). Light crude oils—such as U.S. shale oil—are incompatible with Japan’s existing refining infrastructure. Moreover, Mexico’s supply volume is far from sufficient to meet Japan’s demand, and the cost of trans-Pacific long-distance transportation cannot be ignored. In short, current products from the U.S. and Mexico lack the capacity to fully replace Middle Eastern crude.
So how can Japan secure an alternative route for transporting crude oil around the Middle East? Currently, the most realistic option remains the route via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. However, attacks by Houthi forces—Iran-backed armed groups in Yemen—on ships have become routine, prompting major shipping companies to avoid these waters due to safety concerns. In this context, choosing to circumvent Africa’s Cape of Good Hope becomes necessary—but at a steep cost. Not only will transit times extend by several weeks, but transportation costs will soar due to sharp increases in fuel and insurance premiums. In any case, these added expenses will inevitably be passed on to energy prices, further undermining Japan’s economy and people’s livelihoods already weakened by yen depreciation.
Under these conditions, sourcing crude oil from Russia has attracted growing attention. On May 4, 2026, a tanker loaded with Sakhalin-2 crude oil arrived at Imabari City in Ehime Prefecture. According to reports, Sun Oil Company purchased this crude, which will be refined at an oil refinery in Ehime Prefecture. Since the Russia-Ukraine war began, Russian energy has been subjected to Western economic sanctions—but the Sakhalin-2 project has been exempted. Especially in terms of stable resource supply, it remains a lifeline for Japan’s energy security.
Sakhalin-2 is not only a source of crude oil but also a major supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Reports indicate that 58% of the LNG exported by the project in 2025 will be shipped to Japan, underscoring Japan’s continued reliance on Sakhalin-2. As Western nations gradually distance themselves from Russian energy, despite Western indifference toward the now-Russian-controlled Sakhalin-2 project, Japan has chosen not to completely abandon it.
While completely replacing Middle Eastern crude is extremely difficult, Russian crude offers great appeal due to its proximity and low transportation costs. However, expanding energy trade with Russia on a large scale poses substantial risks for Japan.
First, Russian banks are excluded from the international interbank settlement system (SWIFT). Additionally, Western insurers are finding it increasingly difficult to provide marine insurance for tankers carrying Russian crude oil. Thus, in the event of maritime accidents or oil spills, obtaining compensation would be highly challenging. The greatest concern lies in diplomatic risk. As the G7 collectively imposes economic sanctions on Russia, deepening Japan’s dependence on Russian energy could lead to strained relations with the G7 and foster diplomatic mistrust from the West.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1864503060188231/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.