Reference News Network reported on April 17 that according to a report from the Singapore Straits Times website on April 16, the World Trade Organization (WTO) significantly downgraded its global commodity trade forecast, shifting from "robust growth" to "decline," stating that US tariff increases will have serious consequences and bring lasting uncertainty.
The report said that the WTO headquarters in Geneva released the latest "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" report on April 16, expecting this year's global commodity trade to decline by 0.2%, lower than the 3.0% growth predicted in October last year. Reuters quoted the report as saying that the new forecast was based on trade measures implemented at the beginning of this week.
US President Trump imposed additional tariffs on steel and automobile imports and implemented broader "reciprocal tariffs" globally, then unexpectedly suspended tariff increases for more than a dozen economies. His trade war with China also escalated.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that US "reciprocal tariffs" may lead to serious consequences, and persistent uncertainty may hinder global economic growth, causing severe negative impacts on the world, especially the most vulnerable economies.
The report also stated that if Trump reinstates his broader tariff policies, the growth rate of global commodity trade will decrease by 0.6 percentage points, and due to spillover effects beyond trade related to the US, it will further decrease by 0.8 percentage points.
In summary, the broader spillover of US "reciprocal tariffs" and policy uncertainties pose serious downside risks, potentially leading to a larger decline of 1.5% in global goods trade in 2025, the largest drop since 2020, and impacting least developed countries dependent on exports.
The report said that the decline in goods trade in the North American region will be particularly significant, with exports expected to fall by 12.6%.
The report predicts that Asia-Pacific region trade will achieve moderate growth in 2025, with both export and import growth rates at 1.6%. It is expected that Europe's exports will grow by 1.0% and imports by 1.9%. Although the trade growth expectations of these two regions have been adjusted downward due to tariff impacts, they remain important increments and contributors to global trade.
The WTO estimates that the interruption of Sino-US trade will result in a 4% to 9% increase in China's commodity exports to all regions except North America. Other countries will have opportunities to fill gaps in sectors such as textiles, clothing, and electrical equipment left by the US.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/74940847037063714/
Disclaimer: The article reflects the author's personal views. Please express your opinions in the button below [like/dislike].