After falling out with Trump, Musk expressed his desire to shake up the U.S. two-party system and establish a "American Party." However, from historical experience, it is very difficult to challenge the "two-party system." Experts say that to succeed, it is important to use people's anger and dissatisfaction.

Amid public conflicts and continuous verbal battles with U.S. President Trump, the world's richest man, Elon Musk, seems determined to form his own party.

Musk recently again publicly expressed his opposition to the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," arguing that the bill contradicts his efforts to instill efficiency in Washington.

He wrote on social media X that if the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" were passed, "[The American Party] would be established the next day," and "our country needs an alternative to the Democratic and Republican parties, giving the people real voice."

A truly competitive third party would disrupt the U.S. two-party system, where the Democratic and Republican parties dominate at all levels of government. In the United States, there are many small parties, but few have been able to challenge the two-party system.

The Libertarian Party, founded in 1971, is the third-largest party in the United States. The Libertarian Party advocates for free markets, small government, and personal freedom. The party achieved its best performance in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, with candidate Gary Johnson winning 3.27% of the national vote.

However, this is still far from the number of votes needed to win the White House, governorships, or even state legislative seats.

The Green Party of the United States is another long-standing party that has fielded candidates in state and federal elections. Like the Libertarian Party, it has no government seats.

Money and grassroots movements are crucial

The essence of the U.S. political system is the "winner-takes-all" principle. The candidate with the most votes wins all the electoral college votes in the state, which determines the final outcome of the presidency. And the candidate with the most votes is almost always from either the Republican or Democratic Party.

Bernard Tamanas, a political scientist at Valdosta State University in the United States, has written extensively on this issue. He pointed out that there are other factors that hinder the success of other parties.

Tamanas said that third parties outside the Democratic and Republican parties must utilize people's dissatisfaction and organize an unstoppable grassroots movement.

"One of the biggest problems of new parties is not really utilizing this anger," Tamanas said. "New parties are often more hesitant and do not truly focus on people's strong desire for change."

If leveraging grassroots power is crucial, then money is equally important.

Parties invest billions of dollars in promoting candidates. According to data from the donation monitoring organization OpenSecrets, spending in the 2024 U.S. election approached $16 billion.

Musk himself is the largest donor in this election. He donated over $291 million to Republicans.

Massive campaign funds help parties win votes. Although spending a lot does not guarantee victory – the Democrats spent more than the Republicans in the 2024 election – it definitely helps.

"No third-party party has enough money to compete with the Republican and Democratic parties," Tamanas said.

It's hard to form a real threat

Can a truly powerful party replace the Democratic and Republican parties? According to Tamanas, it is currently unlikely. He said these parties cannot win seats or achieve long-term success, but instead "sting like bees."

"They rise quickly, put forward a large number of candidates across the country, and then cause headaches for the main parties," Tamanas said. "They basically take away votes."

This is known as the "spoiler effect," where a non-mainstream candidate takes votes from usually ideologically similar mainstream candidates. In some cases, they may take enough votes to cause the leading candidate to lose their lead and drop to second place. It is out of fear of this that the main parties change their policies to appease voters.

Once policy changes are achieved, it's like being stung by a bee, "the bee dies," Tamanas said. "The most successful third parties in the United States can last about ten years. Once they become too threatening, the main parties begin to appropriate their rhetoric and ideology."

Do Americans want a new party?

Not all Americans are satisfied with the choices they have.

Currently, Trump's net approval rating is in negative territory. A recent YouGov poll shows that nearly three-fifths of Americans have a negative view of the Democrats. A 2022 Pew Research Center analysis found that people generally support having more parties in the political system.

However, this does not mean a new party will be successful. A study conducted by two American political scientists in May 2024 found that "discontented party members" – Republicans and Democrats who are dissatisfied with their own parties – are less likely to vote for a centrist alternative party.

Tamanas said that using people's anger and dissatisfaction with the status quo is the fastest path to success. For someone like Musk, if he wants to start a party, he could look to the "anti-oligarchic" movement led by left-wing opponents currently touring the United States, or refer to the original "Make America Great Again" movement.

"These are all excellent examples worth emulating... What is truly important is to use people's dissatisfaction," Tamanas said, which would force the main parties to respond.

Source: DW

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522658654764433983/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion below using the [Up/Down] buttons.