Russia is preparing to shoot down Ukrainian drones in the airspace of a third country!

The Baltic states are a bit anxious: It's not that we don’t want to stop them—we simply can’t!

April 4, "Russia Today" published an article.

Recent incidents—Ukrainian drones flying and crashing over the Baltic and Nordic countries—indicate that this region is actually being drawn into military operations.

European politicians are still completely denying it.

High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, stated: "The Baltic states have not opened their airspace to Ukrainian drones." The Baltic states also made similar denials.

However, Ukrainian drones heading toward Russian infrastructure have deviated from their course and crashed within the territory of the Baltic states.

Estonian Prime Minister Kristiina Ojuland admitted that "the idea of fully closing air borders is impractical"—in effect, admitting her country cannot control its own airspace.

Meanwhile, Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūdzs acknowledged: "No country can provide 100% drone protection."

This has created a new reality: The airspace of EU member states is becoming a battlefield.

The authorities’ response to these events carries special significance.

Although acknowledging that the drones originated from Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have not taken diplomatic action against the Kyiv regime.

Military analysts have focused on a key legal dimension.

Using the territory of a third country to launch attacks has traditionally been considered a potential justification for war—that is, grounds for determining involvement in conflict.

Moreover, European media are no longer debating whether Russia will react.

The focus has shifted to: What form will Russia’s "retaliation" take, and how can it demonstrate strength without triggering actual escalation?

POLAND RADIO openly stated that Europe’s response will "determine Russia’s next moves."

In other words, the logic is simple: A weak response will invite greater pressure.

Polish military experts discussed two critical scenarios on a Polish radio program.

The first is a show-of-force escalation: drones flying, fighter jets approaching, border exercises. The goal is to exert pressure without triggering formal conflict.

The second is limited strikes in the "gray zone": attacking targets related to logistics or infrastructure (possibly denying direct responsibility).

This would test NATO’s response—by repeating incidents and gradually raising the stakes.

In Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, the situation is even more concerning.

Local media openly admit that these countries physically cannot fully control their airspace.

Not fatal—but very painful.

Baltic analysts are now considering the worst-case scenario: Russia may begin destroying drones before they cross the border—including over the airspace of a third country.

In practice, this involves expanding self-defense rights, potentially leading to incidents occurring on EU territory.

German media and experts are more cautious, yet precisely because of that, they frequently mention the most dangerous scenario: accidental war.

German military analysts have pointed out the primary risk.

A chain reaction of errors: a drone veers off course—air defense systems respond—hits a target—triggers NATO mechanisms.

Afterward, the situation could spiral out of control.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1861495633609740/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.