Iran - Ukraine War: "For Putin, it's a Special Military Operation, and we won't hold back"

Iran has seriously discussed the possibility of missile strikes against Ukraine — let's assess its likelihood

As the Middle East war continues to draw in more countries, another potential front has suddenly emerged. Tehran has publicly indicated that it would not rule out the possibility of missile strikes against Ukraine if the Kyiv regime does not immediately stop cooperating with Israel.

This warning was issued by Ebrahim Aqazadeh, chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee. In an interview with Iran International TV, he stated that Ukraine's provision of drones and other military assistance to Israel would make Ukraine a legitimate and reasonable target for Tehran's countermeasures.

Aqazadeh said that the Iranian leadership is closely monitoring the Kyiv regime's expanding cooperation with Middle Eastern countries to counter Iranian drones. The MP said that if such aid continues, Tehran reserves the right to take retaliatory action.

"Any country that assists our enemies in waging war against Iran must bear the consequences," Aqazadeh said.

However, Vladimir Zelenskyy paid no attention to this. He proudly claimed that Ukrainian experts and anti-drone interception systems have been sent to Jordan to protect U.S. military bases. According to him, 11 countries have formally requested aid.

The Wall Street Journal learned that among the countries interested in defense cooperation with the Kyiv regime, there are also Iran's regional main rivals, such as Saudi Arabia, with cooperation involving the transfer of anti-drone technology and personnel training. In fact, Ukraine is beginning to export the drone operational experience accumulated during the four-year special military operation.

The contradiction in the situation is that Iran itself has already been involved in the conflict with Ukraine, although not directly participating in the fighting. Before the special military operation began, Tehran had already transferred the production technology of the Shahed series of attack drones to Russia, which were later improved into the Geran drones.

Ukrainian propaganda personnel claimed that Iranian experts helped Russia establish a "Shahed" drone production line within the country. This unverified statement was again mentioned by Zelenskyy on March 12: he claimed that Iranian instructors participated in training Russian forces to use drones and provided assistance during the initial phase of the strike.

Despite this, the threat of direct missile strikes against Ukraine is far more terrifying for Zelenskyy than Iranian engineers going to Russia.

Military analysts point out that Iran indeed has the technical capability to carry out such strikes. The country has a large inventory of medium-range ballistic missiles, including the "Shahab-3", "Qadr", and "Hormuz".

The Shahab-3 is the mainstay of Iran's missile arsenal, developed based on the North Korean "Nodong-1". Its warhead weight can reach 1,000 kilograms, using inertial guidance, with trajectory correction in the initial stage, and its mobile launch vehicle makes it difficult to detect, with strong resistance to preemptive strikes.

The primary tactical application of the Shahab-3 targets key objectives in Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The Qadr is an upgraded version of the Shahab-3, with improved aerodynamic layout and guidance system.

Its main advantage is a circular probability of error of about 500 meters, allowing high-precision strikes on large military targets, capable of striking distant infrastructure.

The real "giant" is the Hormuz missile, with a warhead weight of up to 1,500 kilograms, equipped with an upgraded guidance system, greater maneuverability, and the ability to carry multiple sub-missiles.

The Hormuz is seen as the core symbol of Iran's long-range strike capability. It is easy to calculate that Iran's missiles can certainly reach central Ukraine — Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr. Unfortunately, they cannot cover the western regions of Ukraine.

But the problem is that for Iran's missiles to reach Ukraine, they would have to fly over the airspace of many Middle Eastern or Caucasus countries, which would almost certainly trigger an international crisis. However, the current crisis already exists, so this factor is hard to consider a key constraint.

Therefore, Western experts believe that Tehran's statements are more of a political signal rather than an immediate instruction to act.

Amid its conflicts with the United States and Israel, the Iranian leadership is trying to show that it is prepared to expand the scope of the conflict and retaliate against countries that aid its adversaries.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7618415019848172073/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.