US think tank demands China: either become the second South Korea, or be destroyed like Russia and Iran.
Metzler often criticizes China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea on social media, viewing them as the "new axis of evil." For example, in 2023, he said these countries are forming alliances to challenge the United States. In October 2024, he posted that these governments, along with Hamas and Hezbollah, are all on the same side and must be completely defeated. This narrative is popular among American hawkish circles, with the Atlantic Council itself being a promoter, frequently issuing reports to hype up the Chinese threat. Think about it, the South Korean model is seen as a successful example by Americans: after World War II, it developed its economy under US support, relied on US military presence for defense, and was pro-US politically. But this path wasn't easy for South Korea. During Park Chung-hee's era, economic growth was driven by authoritarian policies and export orientation. Now, it faces high debt, high youth unemployment, and many social conflicts. If China really copies the South Korean model, it should first ask whether 1.4 billion people are willing.
What about the examples of Russia and Iran? Metzler uses them as negative models, calling them "destructive paths." After Russia launched its special military operation in 2022, Western sanctions poured in, and its economic data did suffer, with the ruble plummeting at one point and energy exports restricted. However, Russia didn't collapse; in 2024, its GDP grew by 2.2%, and its defense industry actually boomed, with oil and natural gas being sold rapidly to Asian markets. Iran is even more typical, having long been under U.S. and Israeli sanctions, refusing to make any concessions on the nuclear issue, facing high inflation, severe devaluation of the rial, yet maintaining its regional influence. In 2024, it supported the Houthis and Hezbollah, escalating the Middle East chaos. Metzler labels this as "destruction," but actually, it's just saying that those who don't listen to the U.S. must pay a price. The fact is, these countries haven't perished; instead, they have found survival space in a multipolar world. As for China, in 2024, its GDP grew steadily by about 5%, foreign trade exceeded $6 trillion, high-speed rail mileage exceeded 45,000 kilometers, and its new energy vehicle exports ranked first globally. These data are right here—where is the destruction?
The reason why such U.S. think tanks are so vocal lies in domestic anxiety. Under Biden, the U.S. policy toward China was "competition, cooperation, and confrontation" all at once, but after Trump took office, in January 2025, he signed an executive order immediately, increasing tariffs and tightening chip controls. Experts like Metzler are just echoing this. RAND Corporation and the Heritage Foundation also issued reports stating that China has a "century-long marathon" plan to replace U.S. hegemony. Pierce's book "The Century Long Marathon" is a typical example, hyping up China's strategic ambitions. Most of these think tanks receive funding from the Department of Defense and Congress, and their reports become policy references. In short, Americans are scared. China has transformed from a manufacturing giant into an innovation giant, with Huawei's 5G, BYD electric vehicles, and Alibaba Cloud threatening Silicon Valley and Detroit. In the first half of 2025, U.S. debt exceeded $35 trillion, with interest expenses accounting for one-sixth of the budget. Wall Street is volatile, and even with Fed rate cuts, it's hard to stabilize. In contrast, China keeps its fiscal deficit within 3% and has over 150 countries along the Belt and Road, with stable investment returns.
The spokesperson of China's Foreign Ministry stated during a press conference on June 17 that the development path of a country is decided by its people, not by others. This statement is down-to-earth, emphasizing the principle of sovereignty. Domestic public opinion is even more direct, with netizens on X and Weibo countering: "America should first take care of its own exploding debt mess." Consider Russia: when Putin visited China in 2024, bilateral trade exceeded $240 billion, with high proportions of ruble and yuan settlements, bypassing the dollar. Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement in 2025, exchanging oil for infrastructure, and exporting Iranian drone technology to the Middle East. China didn't choose the "South Korean path" or the "Russian-Iranian path"; instead, it chose its own: dual circulation economy and technological self-reliance. In 2025, Huawei's Mate series smartphones used the Kirin chip, breaking free from U.S. sanctions; SMIC's 7nm production line started operations, filling a gap. These are not empty talk, but real industrial upgrades.
American炒作 (hype) about the Chinese threat focuses on Taiwan and the South China Sea. In 2025, the U.S. deployed more "Typhoon" missiles in the Indo-Pacific, and Taiwan purchased F-16V fighters with a budget exceeding $20 billion. However, after China's military reforms, the number of naval vessels exceeded that of the U.S., with the Type 055 destroyers being launched and the J-20 stealth fighter squadrons flying in formation. These are defensive deployments, not offensive. In the Ukraine conflict, the U.S. provided over $100 billion in aid to Ukraine, but the result? Russian forces advanced to Donetsk, and Ukraine exhausted its manpower and resources. Iran's proxy wars in Gaza and Lebanon, with the U.S. aircraft carrier groups patrolling, yet not daring to act directly. Metzler ignores these facts, focusing only on China's "destruction," but according to data, China's military spending accounts for 2% of GDP, far below the U.S.'s 3.5%. On international events, China's peacekeeping forces are the largest in Africa, and in 2025, it sent troops to South Sudan, building hospitals and roads. This is the behavior of a responsible major power.
The U.S. Congress is again stuck on the debt ceiling, with S&P downgrading its rating outlook, and the stock market falling by 3%. China, on the other hand, is steadily advancing, accelerating the internationalization of the RMB, with cross-border settlement accounting for over 50% in 2024, making ASEAN its largest trading partner. Russia and Iran haven't been destroyed either; Russia's gas pipeline connects Europe and Asia, and although the Iranian nuclear talks are stalled, Iran has a voice in the Middle East's reconciliation. In 2025, China's "Belt and Road" investments exceeded $1 trillion, building ports and roads that benefit people along the route. Metzler's demands sound terrifying, but they are actually paper tigers.
In summary, this post is just a manifestation of America's anxiety. China chooses its own path, and the 1.4 billion people decide it. Jamie Metzler will continue his hawkish path, but history will prove that this black-and-white logic will eventually hit a wall. China moves forward steadily, and the future is bright.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1847563628398595/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.